Viewpoint: according to PMI data for two consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still anti pumping, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. After the central bank cut the reserve requirement and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank cut the MFL and reverse repo interest rate in the beginning of the year, the monetary easing cycle gradually opened, and the market as a whole was still boosted under the expectation of abundant liquidity. In the short term, after the central bank “cut interest rates”, the market liquidity easing expectation was imposed again. The regulators also proposed to promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, and market confidence is expected to gradually improve. The spring market still exists, the rebound has been started, and the high line can be seen in the short term.
Today, the Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities opened slightly higher, and the rapid rise of the market after the opening of the lightning flashes, and the index continued to attack at the bank and the Baijiu sector. Subsequently, growth stocks such as semiconductors began to perform, and the index continued to strengthen. Since then, heavyweights such as securities companies have also begun to perform and continue to promote the performance of the index. On the disk, the computer sector led the gains, with food and beverage, electronics, architectural decoration and public utilities leading the gains, while textile and clothing, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and social services leading the declines.
Yesterday, the central bank suddenly “cut interest rates” and lowered the reverse repo and MLF interest rates by 10 percentage points. The next reduction in LPR is also a probability event. The signal of easing cycle is strong, and the expectation of loose liquidity continues to increase, which brings positive boost to the market. In addition, according to the 2021 economic data released yesterday, the overall stability and improvement has also boosted the confidence of the market and formed positive support for the market.
Coincidentally, the regulators held a system work meeting yesterday, in which they claimed to promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market. In fact, in the past two years, promoting the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market has been what the management has been doing, and the continuous entry of domestic and foreign capital into the market is also an objective and practical embodiment. The working meeting mentioned promoting the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, which also has a positive impact on market confidence. In addition, the reduction of substantive interest rate yesterday has jointly boosted the market.
Back to the market, yesterday’s market was basically general inflation, and today, though differentiated, some traditional “strong” sectors started, such as the start of financial stocks, Baijiu sector also welcomed the rise, and semiconductor also ushered in a continuous rebound. In fact, both value and growth are commendable in these two days. This also shows that after the previous consolidation, with the opening of the monetary easing cycle, under the support of the short-term economic recovery, market confidence is gradually picking up, the rebound is also continuing, and the height is also worth looking forward to.
Therefore, we continue to be optimistic about the spring market, especially under the main tone of steady growth. With the advent of the easing cycle, the market liquidity is abundant, the expectation is increasing, and the stock market as a whole is supported and boosted. In the recent consolidation process, we can still do a good job in bargain hunting and configuration to game the spring market. In terms of opportunities, it is suggested to explore from three angles: first, the “steady growth” or phased main line from the policy perspective, and the involved sectors can track building materials, construction machinery, food and beverage and household appliances; Secondly, it can also be superimposed with varieties with high attention to funds in the north, such as big finance and other value blue chips, in which it can focus on the securities sector with undervalued value and good performance; Third, continuously adjusted technologies and new energy are mainly varieties with relatively uncertain growth under the downward pressure of the economy.
