At the turn of the year, calcium pantothenate staged a crazy market. The financial Associated Press reporter learned that this round of market was initiated by the supply side, causing middlemen to actively ship, but the demand of the terminal feed industry has not improved, which also tested the sustainability of the market.
After this round of price increase, Q1 performance of production enterprises is expected to improve. The financial Associated Press reporter called Brother Enterprises Holding Co.Ltd(002562) (002562. SZ), Yifan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002019) (002019. SZ). The relevant responsible persons said that the company's product prices follow the market, but the specific order scheduling and operating rate are not known. Yifan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002019) people stressed that the current round of calcium pantothenate rise is mainly driven by production costs. The demand for price rise in the industry has been brewing for a long time, but the actual landing time is still short, and there is some uncertainty about how long it can last.
Tang Jun, an analyst at Baichuan Yingfu, told the financial associated press that the calcium pantothenate market has been very crazy since January. The price was only 135 yuan / kg at the beginning of January. By January 17, the transaction price had jumped to about 320 yuan / kg - 350 yuan / kg. For the current high price, downstream customers mostly wait-and-see, mainly in need of replenishment. Wang Lin, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang information, pointed out that this round of price increase is mainly affected by the supply side, triggered by the firm quotation of manufacturers, and the market inquiry is positive, but the trading is general.
It is worth noting that the short-term sharp rise in prices also triggered middlemen to actively ship goods. A middleman told the financial associated press that calcium pantothenate rose too quickly in the short term and the price was too high. All businesses that can ship should ship.
The low inventory status of middlemen adds more uncertainty to the future price trend. Throughout the history of vitamin market ups and downs, middlemen often play an important role. Generally speaking, upstream raw material manufacturers are mainly large customers with stable demand and do not frequently adjust prices. The price fluctuation of middlemen is obviously large.
At present, in the whole vitamin industry chain, large raw material manufacturers mainly supply large customers directly. The validity period of these orders is usually 1-3 months to ensure the stability of supply prices during this period. But for the majority of small and medium-sized customers, because it is difficult to cooperate directly with raw material suppliers, they usually have to take goods from middlemen.
For the market trend of calcium pantothenate after the festival, Tang Jun believes that the current round of market basically peaked in stages, and some factories will stop production and have holidays from next week. The market in the second quarter depends on whether the demand can improve after the Spring Festival. Wang Jinquan, an expert from the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said in an interview that the aquaculture industry entered the peak season in the second quarter, which is expected to support the upstream feed demand.
It should be noted that the impact of high feed prices on the global aquaculture industry has become more and more obvious. Due to the rise in feed prices, some people in the live poultry industry said that the profit threshold of yellow feather chicken increased from 10 yuan / kg in previous years to 12 yuan / kg. Cal Maine, the largest egg producer in the United States, also said that in the first half of 2021, the agricultural production cost per dozen eggs increased by 21.6% over the same period last year, mainly driven by the rise in feed prices. It is generally believed that vitamin products such as calcium pantothenate account for a relatively low proportion in feed, and the downstream is relatively insensitive to its price. However, with the overall price of feed rising and the downstream is obviously under pressure, it may be difficult to give play to the advantage of vitamin price increase in the past.
