According to wind data, on January 17, the total share of Pengyang CSI digital economy theme ETF (560800.sh) was 598 million, an increase of 104 million compared with the previous day; The total scale of the fund was 566 million yuan, with a net inflow of 98.01 million yuan and a turnover of 122 million yuan on the 17th day. The market is paying more and more attention to the track with long-term and high prosperity in the future. The theme of digital economy has become an important tool for investor allocation, and the digital economy has been catalysed by the policy at the top-level design level
heavy articles require strengthening, optimizing and expanding the digital economy
Digital economy is a new engine for China's economic transformation and upgrading, and what triggered the flow of "smart money" in the market to this field is a piece of heavy news: on January 16, Qiushi magazine published an important article by national leaders, "constantly strengthening, optimizing and expanding China's digital economy".
The article emphasizes that in recent years, the rapid development of digital economy, the wide range of radiation and the unprecedented depth of influence are becoming the key force to restructure global factor resources, reshape global economic structure and change global competition pattern. Facing the future, we should stand at the height of coordinating the overall strategic situation of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and the great changes in the world that have not been seen in a century, coordinate China's two major international situations and two major events of development and security, give full play to the advantages of Beijing Vastdata Technology Co.Ltd(603138) and enriching application scenarios, promote the deep integration of digital technology and the real economy, enable the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and give birth to Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) new business formats and new models, Continue to strengthen, optimize and expand China's digital economy.
The paper points out that developing digital economy is a strategic choice to grasp the new opportunities of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial reform. The healthy development of digital economy is conducive to promoting the construction of a new development pattern, a modern economic system and a new national competitive advantage
integrate data elements and move towards a higher economic stage
In fact, the entry of digital economy into China's top-level design planning of scientific and technological innovation is not overnight. In 2017, the concept of "digital economy" appeared for the first time in the work report of the Chinese government ("promoting the accelerated growth of digital economy"), and the importance of digital economy has been emphasized in the government work report for four consecutive years.
With the rapid development of new generation information technologies such as big data, cloud computing, Internet of things and artificial intelligence, digital economy, as a new economic form, is increasingly becoming an important driving force for global economic growth.
In 2020, the scale of China's digital economy will continue to flourish, expanding from 2.6 trillion yuan in 2005 to 39.2 trillion yuan, and its proportion in GDP will also increase from 14.2% in 2005 to 38.6% in 2020. In 2020, China's digital economy will still maintain a high growth rate of 9.7%, which is about 6.7 percentage points higher than the nominal GDP growth rate in the same period. Behind the rapid growth is the continuous improvement of production efficiency by digital technology and the economies of scale brought by the low marginal cost of digital economy
Figure 1: China's digital economy growth and GDP growth
source: white paper on China's digital economy development 2021
Digital economy is regarded as a higher economic stage after agricultural economy and industrial economy. According to the definition of the white paper on the development of China's digital economy, digital economy takes digital knowledge and information as key production factors, digital technology as the core driving force, modern information network as an important carrier, and continuously improves the digital, networked and intelligent level of economy and society through the deep integration of digital technology and real economy, Accelerate the reconstruction of a new economic form of economic development and governance model.
Digital economy is not only concerned in China, but also widely used in developed economies. It is also a hot topic in overseas capital markets. Faang is the acronym of the five most popular and best performing technology stocks in the U.S. market, namely social network giant Facebook (FB), apple (AAPL), online retail and cloud computing giant Amazon (AMZN), streaming video service giant Netflix (NFlx) and Google's parent company alphabet (GOOG). In fact, it is also the leader of the digital economy. From 2015 to the end of October 2021, faang's market capitalization weighted portfolio increased by 627%, while the NASDAQ index increased by 206% and the S & P 500 increased by 109%. It is not difficult to see that the rapid growth of stock prices and performance of these companies reflects the higher efficiency of digital economy than non digital economy
covers many subdivisions of high-quality economic development
Digital economy can be mainly divided into two parts: Digital industrialization and industrial digitization. Digital industrialization refers to the whole information and communication industry, including telecommunications and electronic information manufacturing industry focusing on hardware (Infrastructure), software, information technology service industry focusing on software application (such as big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, blockchain and other technologies) and Internet industry; Industrial digitization refers to the part of traditional industries that apply digital technology to increase energy and efficiency, such as intelligent unmanned workshop, unmanned and intelligent cockpit, financial technology, etc. built by using 5g network, Internet of things, machine vision and other technologies
Figure 2: breakdown of digital economy structure
source: Pengyang fund
Current industry weight distribution of digital economy index. Electronics and computers together account for 80%. Among them, electronics accounted for 44%, mainly semiconductors. The internal growth order of semiconductors in the past year was semiconductor equipment, materials, digital chip design and analog chip design. The weight of digital economy in semiconductor equipment and materials is about 8%, and the total weight in chip design is 27%. Discrete devices account for about 2.7%, mainly including power semiconductor leaders benefiting from the explosive demand in the field of carbon neutralization. In the semiconductor sector, the digital economy is not included in the wafer factories with heavy assets. In the large electronic industry, the digital economy has not been included in consumer electronics. The main consideration of this trade-off is to focus on scientific and technological content, take into account the global competition pattern, and tend to light assets.
The second largest industry in the index is computer, accounting for about 36%. It is mainly divided into two parts, with software companies accounting for about 20% and security equipment accounting for about 11.5%. Compared with overseas, China National Software And Service Company Limited(600536) leader still has broad growth space, especially in artificial intelligence, information security and cloud computing.
In addition, in addition to electronics and computers, financial technology accounts for about 10% and industrial control accounts for about 6%. The included financial technology leaders have good growth, and the current PE is about 0.7 times the historical PE average.
We are also optimistic about China's industrial control leaders. On the one hand, the rising cost of employment forces industrial upgrading, and there is a wide space for import substitution; On the other hand, industrial control has a wide range of downstream applications, including Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , new energy vehicles, etc., which is one of the most determined directions of performance growth in industrial digitization
Table 1: industry weight distribution of digital economy
data source: wind
digital economy ETF has high-quality growth, reasonable valuation and flexibility
\u3000\u30001。 High quality growth style investment tools are significantly different from existing products. The growth style ETF in the market can be roughly divided into two categories: one is industry theme and the other is broad-based. The hot growth ETFs in the industry theme include chip ETF and new energy vehicle ETF. Compared with them, the concept of digital economy is relatively broad and slightly balanced. Digital industrialization and industrial digitization will be epoch-making investment themes, but the transaction is not crowded at present. The hot growth ETFs on the broad base include gem ETFs, etc. compared with them, the digital economy first restricts the sample pool by theme and then sorts and selects, so the correlation of constituent stocks will be higher. In short, the digital economy can specifically meet the investment needs of investors for Pan science and technology growth stocks. Sub industries are preferred in the science and technology sector, which is not too balanced and not overheated.
\u3000\u30002。 The fundamentals are good and the valuation is reasonable and low. At present, the weighted roe of digital economy constituent stocks in 2021 is 18.6% (consistent expected value, weighted by component equity, the same later), and the average value in the past three years is 17.3%, an increase of about 1.3%. In 2021, it is unanimously expected that the net profit growth rate will be 60.8% (benefiting from the slightly lower base in 2020 and the lack of core and high growth in the semiconductor sector). The expected growth rate in 2022 will be 33%, and the absolute value is still high. At present, the PE of digital economy is about 60 times, which is in a reasonably low position, and its growth is still excellent.
\u3000\u30003。 Good flexibility and high-quality transaction target. In the second half of 2021, the digital economy adjusted the detailed rules and focused more on the industry. The latest sample adjustment (2021-12-13) starts to implement the new maintenance rules. In the historical retrospect of the new rules, the annualized volatility of the digital economy index is about 32.5%, which is significantly higher than 26.6% of the TMT index and 26.4% of the gem index, and slightly lower than 34.6% of the chip index. After the latest sample adjustment, the volatility of digital economy in the same period is slightly higher than that of chip ETF. The reason for the high volatility of the digital economy index is that the themes are relatively concentrated and the high growth sub industries are preferred
looking at the future of digital economy with industrial thinking
Looking forward to the prospect of digital economy, covid-19 epidemic has accelerated the process of global digital transformation, and the industrial application space of digital economy is broad.
At the demand level, people's utilization of online shopping, telecommuting, online medical treatment, online education and other scenes showed explosive growth during the epidemic. Although the epidemic will eventually pass, the habits formed by human beings during the epidemic will not be easily changed. The adverse growth of digital applications during the epidemic also stimulated the transformation willingness of enterprises. According to the data of China Association of small and medium-sized commercial enterprises, the recovery proportion of enterprises with high digital maturity in three months under the impact of the epidemic was as high as 60%, while the recovery proportion of enterprises with low digital maturity was only 48%.
New digital technologies and application scenarios have also been upgraded during the epidemic. For example, after many offline activities were transferred to online during the epidemic, VR & AR equipment brought users an immersive feeling, and technology giants increased relevant investment to gradually turn the meta universe from concept to reality.
From the supply side, the innovation of digital technology can effectively promote industrial upgrading and give birth to new business models. For example, e-commerce, platform economy, sharing economy and o2o have emerged with the support of information and communication technology in recent years; The popularization and progress of digital technology will promote the continuous upgrading of traditional agriculture and animal husbandry to intelligent animal husbandry and traditional manufacturing to intelligent manufacturing.
At present, the market style may still swing in value and growth, but the adjustment of growth style just provides a good opportunity for layout. As a pioneer of future growth, digital economy will fully benefit from the dividends of the times. (CIS)
