The annual performance forecast of A-Shares in 2021 has entered an intensive disclosure period. Especially since January 2022, the number of listed companies issuing annual forecast has further increased. From the two indicators of the number of performance forecasters and the pre happy rate, the two themes of the pharmaceutical and new energy vehicle industry chain occupy the tuyere. The share prices of some pharmaceutical and new energy vehicle related stocks with higher than expected growth have opened a rising mode.
accelerated disclosure of pharmaceutical 2021 performance forecast
covid-19 concept and “good performance” of traditional Chinese medicine
Since January 2022, pharmaceutical companies have accelerated the disclosure of 2021 annual performance forecast. According to wind statistics, as of January 15, 2022 (the same below), about 410 companies in the two cities have disclosed the performance forecast of 2021. Among them, the number of disclosed companies has reached 279 since January, accounting for nearly 70% of the disclosed companies. Among the 279 companies, the number of pharmaceutical companies is the majority, reaching 30. According to the reporter of red weekly, except for 3 of the 30 pharmaceutical stocks whose performance was predicted to decline, the other 27 stocks recorded an increase, with a pre happy rate of 90%.
Further, the performance growth of pharmaceutical stocks mainly includes two kinds of logic: the first kind of epidemic beneficiary stocks, such as covid-19 detection medical device companies. The second kind of stocks damaged by the epidemic, such as traditional Chinese medicine, has achieved good performance and restorative growth with the effective control of the epidemic in China in 2021.
At present, according to incomplete statistics, the medical device companies that have disclosed the advance notice of 2021 annual report and benefited from covid-19 testing business (mainly international business) since January include five A-share listed companies such as Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , Wuhan Easy Diagnosis Biomedicine Co.Ltd(002932) , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Guangdong Hybribio Biotech Co.Ltd(300639) and Anxi biology. From its performance forecast in 2021, it is mostly a substantial advance increase (see Table 1). Covid-19 virus detection business is an important factor contributing to its performance in 2021
Table 1 covid-19 virus detection concept 2021 performance forecast (part)
data source: wind
Several covid-19 virus detection listed companies are also announcing that their performance will increase significantly in 2021 due to the increase of overseas business. For example, Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , it said on January 6 that the covid-19 epidemic in Europe, Southeast Asia and other countries and regions remained high in the second half of 2021, and the income of overseas covid-19 testing reagents increased significantly. It is expected to achieve a net profit of 2 billion yuan ~ 2.35 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 1684.65% ~ 1996.97%; Wuhan Easy Diagnosis Biomedicine Co.Ltd(002932) on January 5, it was estimated that the net profit in 2021 would be about 1.3 billion yuan to 1.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 177.23% ~ 219.88%, which was mainly related to the significant growth of foreign trade orders and related revenue of overseas covid-19 testing reagents.
It is worth mentioning that the current business income of some companies depends on the business growth related to overseas epidemic. This means that once the overseas business declines, it may be difficult to maintain its follow-up performance.
Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) on January 14, it was estimated that the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company in 2021 was 4.72 billion yuan – 5.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 181.45% – 205.31%. This is mainly affected by the rapid growth of New Coronavirus antigen rapid detection reagent in Europe. The reporter of red weekly noted that in 2020, Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) overseas operating revenue reached 3.088 billion, accounting for 94.58% of the total revenue.
It is worth mentioning that, stimulated by the substantial advance increase in performance, the share prices of relevant companies recorded a sharp rise. For example, Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , the company’s share price closed the “20cm” limit on the day after the disclosure of the performance forecast (January 7). Wuhan Easy Diagnosis Biomedicine Co.Ltd(002932) the share price also closed the limit on January 7 after the disclosure of the performance forecast.
Contrary to the logic of medical device companies benefiting from the epidemic, such as covid-19 detection, the performance growth in some pharmaceutical segments is mainly related to the control of the epidemic, such as traditional Chinese medicine.
According to the incomplete statistics of the reporter of red weekly, at present, seven traditional Chinese medicine stocks, including Teyi Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002728) , Guangdong Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002317) , have disclosed the performance forecast for 2021. Among them, except Tibet Rhodiola Pharmaceutical Holding Company(600211) one company’s performance forecast decline, the other companies have forecast growth (see Table 2), and the forecast rate is 85%
performance forecast of pharmaceutical stocks 2021 in Table 2 (part)
data source: wind
The performance of traditional Chinese medicine enterprises has increased significantly, which is related to the better control of the local epidemic in China in 2021. As Guizhou Sanli Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603439) said on January 14, the net profit in 2021 is expected to be 145 million yuan ~ 165 million yuan, an increase of 54.33% ~ 75.62% compared with the same period of last year. Its performance growth is related to the effective control of the epidemic in China in 2021, the recovery of the economy, and the recovery and growth of the market demand for the company’s main products. As another example, Teyi Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002728) , the latest announcement on January 13 said that the performance in 2021 was expected to increase by 120 million yuan to 150 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 242.34%, and the performance recorded a significant increase. The company said that it was related to the effective control of China’s covid-19 pneumonia epidemic and the basic return of business to normal level in 2021.
It is worth mentioning that although the performance of some traditional Chinese medicine enterprises has increased significantly, it is also related to the low performance base of the previous year (2020). For example Guizhou Sanli Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603439) , the net profit in 2020 is only 93.95 million yuan, down 29% compared with 2019; Teyi Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002728) the net profit in 2020 is 43.81 million yuan, a decline of 74% compared with 2019.
the performance of lithium battery resources and parts of new energy vehicles increased significantly in advance
many companies have been recommended by institutions
The annual results of the new energy vehicle industry chain with a sharp rise in prosperity in 2021 are gradually released. According to the statistics of wind, 20 new energy vehicle industry chain companies such as Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) disclosed the performance forecast of 2021, of which only one company’s performance declined. Only from the data disclosed at present, the performance forecast rate is 95%.
From the current performance forecast, the performance of upstream lithium battery resources, new energy auto parts and other sub circuits recorded significant growth.
On the whole, the performance growth of lithium battery resources and parts is based on the higher than expected performance growth of new energy vehicles. According to wind data, the cumulative sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in 2021 was 3.52 million, an increase of 158% compared with 1.36 million in 2020 and 193% compared with 1.2 million in 2019
Table 3 2021 performance forecast of new energy vehicle industry chain company (part)
data source: wind
Further breakdown, the performance growth of upstream resource companies includes not only the increase of “quantity”, but also the rise of product prices.
As announced on Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) January 11, the pre profit in 2021 is 760 million yuan ~ 830 million yuan, reversing the loss year-on-year. According to the financial report data, in 2020, Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) lost 28.4 million yuan, a decrease of 128% compared with 2019. It is worth mentioning that in the first three quarters of 2021, Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) achieved a net profit of 244 million yuan. If measured by its highest pre profit of 830 million yuan in the whole year, Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) achieved a profit of 586 million yuan in the fourth quarter of 2021 alone, far ahead of the sum of the third quarter. The significant growth of its performance is mainly related to the significant growth of production and sales, the rise of upstream raw material prices and other factors.
Driven by the “simultaneous rise in volume and price”, there are also companies such as Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) whose net profit in 2021 is expected to be RMB 3.7-4.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 218% – 261%.
The growth of new energy vehicle sales has directly driven the significant increase in the performance of new energy vehicle parts companies. According to incomplete statistics, at present, including Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , Zhejiang Founder Motor Co.Ltd(002196) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , all indicate that the performance has ushered in significant growth due to the increase in sales of new energy vehicle related parts.
For example, Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , it was announced on January 5 that the net profit in 2021 is expected to reach 316 million yuan to 336 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 516.82% to 555.85%. The reason for the substantial increase in performance is mainly related to the market driving of the company in the field of new energy vehicle drive system gears; Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) said on January 12 that the net profit in 2021 is expected to be 1.05 billion yuan ~ 1.15 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 67% ~ 83%, which is mainly due to the increase in demand for intelligent electric products of new energy vehicles.
It is worth mentioning that the share prices of some companies rose sharply after the release of the performance forecast. Still take Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) as an example. From the 12th to 14th days after the release of the performance forecast, the share prices rose by 24.93%.
But at the same time, it should be noted that since December 2021, the share price of the new energy vehicle industry chain represented by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has been continuously adjusted. According to wind data, from December 1, 2021 to January 14, 2022, Shenwan new energy vehicle sector fell by 12% in total, more than CSI 300 in the same period (down 2.18% in the same period).
At present, the performance forecast of 2021 disclosed by the new energy vehicle industry chain company has more than expected growth, which further drives the concept of new energy vehicles such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) to return to activity.
In an interview with red weekly, Zhang Liang, chairman of Baoding investment, said that new energy vehicles will still have a high-profile cycle of 2-3 years in the future. “At present, new energy vehicles have been transformed from the ‘subsidy model’ to the ‘real demand’ of the market, which will drive the sales volume of new energy vehicles to continue to rise sharply, thus bringing a high view of the whole industrial chain.” (Note: according to the policy, in 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021, and will not be subsidized after 2022.)
The reporter of red weekly noted that many new energy vehicle industry chain companies have received intensive recommendations from securities companies in the near future, such as Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) (see Table 4). They have received the latest buy rating from more than several securities companies since January
Table 4 new energy vehicle stocks (part) with the latest buy rating given by securities companies
data source: wind
For example, Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , a total of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) , Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) , Huachuang securities and other 8 institutions gave the latest buy rating; Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) obtained the latest buy rating from 7 institutions including Minsheng securities, UBS Securities and Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) ; Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) also received buy ratings from seven institutions, and the institutions that gave the latest buy ratings, such as China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) , Huachuang securities, etc.
At the same time, some stocks were given specific target prices by institutions. For example, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) yuan jiancong said that for Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , considering the high certainty of the company’s growth in the next two years, 65 times PE was given in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 908 yuan / share. The reporter of red weekly noted that as of the closing on January 14, 2022, Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) closed at 571 yuan / share, with 59% room for rise compared with the target price of 908 yuan.
According to the judgment of the agency, the future market of new energy vehicles is far from over.
