Today (January 18), the three major A-share stock indexes rose and fell at the opening. After the sharp decline at the beginning of the market, the stock index gradually fluctuated and stabilized. With the support of the big financial market, the Shanghai index rose and strengthened, while the gem index plunged downward, and the stock index differentiated. From the disk, banks, insurance and securities companies "three brothers" have a market care, and coal, steel, green electricity and other resource stocks have surged. Digital economy, Baijiu, real estate development and other sectors are also outstanding, and the local money making effect remains.
Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) believes that the probability of the main tone is "shock stabilization", and the space and probability of upward operation are greater than those of downward operation. At the operational level, it is suggested to pay attention to the low absorption opportunities of medium linear growth varieties on the basis of maintaining the position to rise. In terms of industry, the middle line can continue to pay attention to the industries of national defense, military industry, electronics and securities companies, and look for investment opportunities in the science and technology sector (electronics, communications and computers) in the short term.
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let's see what themes are available for reference.
[topic I] coal
Kaiyuan Securities believes that the current winter coal consumption demand has entered the seasonal peak stage, the daily consumption and replenishment demand may gradually weaken before the Spring Festival, and the current rebound space of coal price may be limited; However, from the supply side, after the peak season comes to an end, the focus of the policy may be to ensure safety. The current ultra-high load production intensity is unsustainable, superimposed with the impact of Indonesia's coal export ban, there is a great possibility of tightening the supply after the Spring Festival.
Huabao securities mentioned that China's demand for coking coal is expected to decrease by 3% in 2022, and the output of coking coal will increase by about 4 million tons. The overall supply and demand of overseas coking coal is in tight balance. Considering that the import of coking coal is an important factor in adjusting the supply and that coking coal has little impact on people's livelihood, we tend to think that on the supply side, the increase of Mongolia's import will reduce the total import from other regions to a certain extent, and the increase of overseas import is generally cautious. According to the overall calculation, the tight situation of coking coal supply and demand will be alleviated and the supply and demand will be balanced in 2022. Based on 2022, the supply and demand of coking coal is in balance as a whole. It is estimated that the central price of Mysteel China coking coal price index is 1500 yuan / ton, and the central price of Xinhua Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) long term association price index is 1200 yuan / ton.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that under the long-term logic, the cycle fluctuation of the coal industry will be weakened and the profit space will be stable. In the long run, the limited factors of coal supply are still, the bottleneck of supply growth is obvious, the enthusiasm of coal enterprises to invest in new mines is weak, and the economy is poor, the long construction cycle of new production capacity and complex approval procedures restrict the growth of coal production capacity, The dual carbon background determines that the coal supply will remain stable, and Sanxi and Xinjiang regions with excellent resource endowment will be strong. Enterprises with layout in such regions will continue to benefit from the process of increasing resource concentration. At the same time, the stability of coal price is very important to the healthy development of the whole industry, the periodicity of the industry will be weakened and the profit stability will be enhanced, The good cash flow situation of coal enterprises in recent years has also laid a solid foundation for the in-depth development of some coal enterprises to new energy, new materials and industries.
In the short and medium term, investment opportunities in the coal sector are prominent. The policy of increasing coal production and ensuring supply is expected to exit after the coal price is stable. Superimposed on the arduous task of "six guarantees and six stabilities" of macro economy in 2022, the phased and regional economic stimulus policies may further stimulate the enthusiasm of upstream resource products procurement and promote the investment sentiment and return on investment of the coal sector.
In addition, the transformation and development has become a highlight of coal enterprises, and power coal will face the pattern of double increase in supply and demand in the future to achieve a basic balance; Coking coal sector in the future for some time or both supply and demand decline; The coke sector may achieve a tight balance between supply and demand on the basis of further supply contraction. As the basic energy, coal still plays the role of ballast in the process of energy structure transformation. On the premise of providing a solid foundation for the rich cash flow of coal enterprises, they have transformed to the depth of the industrial chain and new energy and new materials on the basis of consolidating their main business, becoming a major investment highlight of the sector in the future. []
[Topic 2] power
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) mentioned that under the goals of "carbon peak" in 2030 and "carbon neutralization" in 2060, the energy field is the main battlefield of China's carbon emission reduction, and the power grid is the hub to promote energy transformation and realize the national "double carbon" strategy. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the total investment in the power grid is expected to reach 3 trillion yuan, of which the State Grid plans to invest 350 billion US dollars (about 2.23 trillion yuan) to promote the transformation of the power grid; China Southern Power Grid will invest about 670 billion yuan to speed up the construction of digital power grid and modern power grid. At the same time, the proportion of intelligence in power grid investment has gradually increased. According to the general report of the intelligent planning of the State Grid, in the third stage, the State Grid continued to increase the scale of intelligent investment in transmission, transformation and distribution.
Guosheng Securities believes that with the continuous improvement of the policy environment of the power engineering industry chain and the continuous accumulation of financial resources, the relevant leaders are expected to accelerate the growth. In addition to UHV construction, other suggestions focus on: 1) power supply side: the development of scenery and green power in the 14th five year plan is accelerated, the new energy engineering business is expected to usher in sustained high growth, and the large energy base is expected to strengthen the leading position. 2) Distribution network side: with the increase of new energy consumption demand and the acceleration of distributed energy construction, distribution network is expected to become one of the key investment points of power grid in the future (distribution network accounts for about 50% in the "14th five year plan" investment plan of China Southern Power Grid). 3) Energy storage: according to the relevant planning of the 14th five year plan, compared with the 13th five year plan, the cumulative installed capacity of pumped storage is doubled, and the installed capacity of new energy storage is 10 times. The energy storage industry is expected to usher in rapid development in the 14th five year plan.
From the perspective of investment suggestions, the institution further analyzed and continued to recommend the core targets for the construction of new energy power system, focused on and recommended the leaders Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) and China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) of UHV and green power construction and operation of central enterprises, continued to develop the growth leader Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) of distribution network EPCO for photovoltaic, energy storage and power intelligent operation and maintenance, and the leader of enterprise energy efficiency management system Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) .
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that with the deepening of the new round of power system reform, the market-oriented trading mechanism of power has been gradually improved, and the proportion of market-oriented trading electricity has continued to increase, which will gradually restore the commodity attribute of power, and realize that the electricity price can be "increased or decreased", which will help to promote the more stable benefits of power enterprises. As it is difficult to significantly reduce the fuel cost of coal power in the short term, it is expected that the market-oriented transaction price of some power consuming provinces in 2022 will still rise compared with the benchmark price, which will help to alleviate the pressure on coal power enterprises caused by the rise of fuel cost. In addition, the green power pilot transaction was launched. From the supply and demand of the green power market, the "environmental value" premium of green power may persist for a certain period of time, thickening the income of new energy operators. []
[subject III ] bank
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) mentioned that bank stocks rebounded significantly and the market opened in the first quarter.
Looking forward to 2022, wide credit is the boundary of market consensus. It is difficult to determine the subject and scale of wide credit outside the boundary. However, from the perspective of structure, in the incremental credit structure since 2019, the proportion of individual non housing loans has gradually increased, which is the only reliable logic from top to bottom. Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) are recommended.
In addition, Wanlian Securities said that looking forward to the first quarter, the market pessimistic expectations will be repaired, superimposed with strong performance certainty, and the whole sector is expected to remain strong. We upgraded the sector to be stronger than the general trend. In the medium and long term, the internal differentiation of the banking sector will continue. It is suggested to pay attention to the banks with the continuous increase of the proportion of intermediate business income and the banks with the continuous improvement of fundamentals.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) mentioned that the trend of 1q bank sector was better in history, and the relative return of bank stocks in January may be better. From the performance of the banking sector in recent five years, in addition to the abnormal impact of the epidemic in 2020, the growth of the banking sector in 2017-2019 and the first quarter / January of 2021 were 4.0% / 4.5%, - 2.1% / 12.5%, 4.0% / 8.2% and 11.9% / 7.5% respectively. Among them, in January, the banking sector ranked among the top five sectors, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.1, 6.4, 1.9 and 2.8pct respectively, with better relative earnings performance.
According to the investment suggestions, the institution further analyzed: ① for the high-quality listed banks that were obviously impacted by the real estate market in the early stage, the bottom shape after stock price adjustment is more obvious and has better flexibility; ② Continue to recommend high-quality listed banks in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other regions. These banks benefit from the advantages of regional economic environment and are more certain to continue the "volume increase and price stability" of credit supply.
In addition, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that the reduction of the policy interest rate in January reflects the policy intention of the central bank to grasp the monetary policy window at the beginning of the year to promote steady growth, credit and expectation. At present, China's economic operation is in the rebalancing stage of vivid weakening within macro policy overweight hedging. For bank investment, the interest rate reduction operation is expected to affect the interest margin expectation in the short term and benefit the consolidation of asset quality in the medium term. It is suggested to lengthen the time dimension to examine the allocation value of the sector.
[theme four ] securities companies
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that policies are frequent, and they are optimistic about the long-term development of securities companies. ① Recently, a series of policies to promote the construction of securities companies and capital markets (insurance funds, new regulations on income swaps, comprehensive accounts and the full implementation of the registration system) are conducive to the industrial chain of ficc, wealth management and large investment banks. ② The uncertainty of long-term profit center is rising: the wealth management business continues to grow, and channels, products and investment advisers benefit deeply; The scale of derivatives has maintained rapid growth in recent years, new products have been launched one after another, the superposition system has been continuously standardized, and ficc constitutes the core increment; The construction of multi-level capital market has accelerated, and the science and innovation board and the Beijing stock exchange have brought new increments. At the same time, the reform of the registration system has also brought dividends to the stock business system. ③ There is a great contrast between the fundamentals and policies of securities companies and the valuation. The profits of securities companies continue to reach a new high. Relative to roe, they are close to the level of the previous bull market (2015-2016), but their valuation is still at the bottom 1 / 4 of the historical valuation. We are optimistic about the long-term allocation value of securities companies.
Xiangcai Securities pointed out that in terms of policy, it is expected that the "steady growth" policy is expected to continue to work this year, and the liquidity environment is stable and loose, supporting market transactions. The full implementation of the stock issuance and registration system has been steadily promoted, the capital market has continued to expand, and the prosperity of the industry has improved. In terms of valuation, the current Pb valuation in the brokerage industry is 1.7x, which is in the 40% quantile of Pb in recent 10 years, and the sector still has valuation repair space. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of head securities companies under the transformation of wealth management.
AVIC Securities believes that in the long run, there are multiple positive factors with strong certainty in the securities sector: first, there is a high probability of performance. The annual report performance in 2021 will be announced one after another. From the three quarterly reports, the performance of public funds, market trading volume, the scale of funds raised by investment banks and other market performance, most listed securities companies have a high probability of achieving high growth in 2021. At present, the four securities companies that have announced the performance forecast have achieved significant performance growth.
Second, the main line of "steady growth" is clear. For China's economic development situation in 2022, the central bank, the Ministry of finance, the national development and Reform Commission and other departments will focus on "steady growth", and it is expected that the "steady growth" policy will continue to work in the future. Therefore, we expect that with the support of stable growth policy, the US interest rate increase will not have much impact on China's liquidity environment in the short term.
Third, the wealth management track has a long slope and thick snow, which is still an important focus of the industry in the future. In 2022, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) , Nanjing Securities Co.Ltd(601990) and Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) have successively passed the qualification of fund investment advisory business exhibition. At present, 17 securities companies have conducted fund investment advisory business exhibition. To sum up, we believe that the current negative factors have limited impact on the long-term growth of the securities sector, so we are not afraid of short-term disturbance. []
