Since the beginning of 2022, the pharmaceutical sector has regained financial attention, and the internal differentiation has become more and more obvious.
In the first two weeks of the year, detection reagents, traditional Chinese medicine and other sectors led the rise, while the high-profile CXO sector continued to fall. Today, the CXO sector warmed slightly, while the detection reagent sector pulled back significantly. Who is the leading role in the pharmaceutical sector in 2022 has become the focus of the market.
In this regard, Jiang Guangce, an investment veteran in the pharmaceutical field and founder of Dechuan investment, said bluntly: "in 2022, we should avoid the heavy positions of pharmaceutical funds since 2019, especially the CXO sector. At the same time, we should pay attention to relevant opportunities in the field of IVD and vaccine." Coincidentally, Duan Yongping, a well-known investment tycoon, recently said that he had copied the bottom of the vaccine giant by selling put options.
intensified differentiation of the pharmaceutical sector
Since the beginning of 2022, the high boom tracks such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and semiconductors have cooled significantly, and the pharmaceutical sector has regained financial attention.
According to choice data, last week (January 10-14), only a few sectors such as medicine and biology, power equipment, non-ferrous metals and automobiles closed red in the A-share market, among which the medicine and biology sector led the weekly increase of 2.41%. However, specifically, the internal differentiation of the pharmaceutical sector is becoming more and more obvious.
The data show that as of January 14, the CSI CXO index has decreased by more than 6% since 2022, while the CSI traditional Chinese medicine index has decreased by less than 1% in the same period, and the wind covid-19 pneumonia detection index has increased by as much as 23.75%. However, since this week, the CSI CXO index has begun to pick up slightly. The previously booming wind covid-19 pneumonia detection index fell by more than 6% today.
valuation tolerance decreased significantly
The reporter learned from the interview that behind the increasingly fierce internal differentiation of the pharmaceutical sector is the concern of institutional investors about the investment cost performance of pharmaceutical stocks.
According to the statistics of private placement network, in December 2021, when institutions intensively transferred positions and exchanged shares, 18 10 billion private placements conducted research. From the industry level, 10 billion private placements are very interested in pharmaceutical stocks. According to the data, there were 11 pharmaceutical stocks investigated by 10 billion private placement in December 2021, including Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) , Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc(000513) , Qingdao Haier Biomedical Co.Ltd(688139) , China Reform Health Management And Services Group Co.Ltd(000503) and Zhejiang Xianju Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002332) . From the perspective of market value and valuation, 10 billion private placement relatively prefers small and medium-sized market value targets with advantages in valuation.
In addition, from the institutional research since this year, small and medium-sized pharmaceutical stocks are still the focus of their attention.
According to incomplete statistics by the reporter, as of January 17, 19 pharmaceutical stocks have been investigated since 2022, including Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) .
According to the announcement of listed companies, in January, Peng Yan, founder of 10 billion private placement Ruiyang investment, personally investigated Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) , while Chen Qin, fund manager of 10 billion private placement Panjing investment, personally investigated Baicheng medicine with a market value of less than 10 billion yuan.
\u3000\u3000 "The keynote of the macro economy this year is' steady growth ', that is, there is downward pressure on the economy, but policy hedging will also be in place. Against this background, it is difficult for the market to show that the valuation of leading targets will continue to improve in 2020. On the contrary, it is more likely to deduce the return of the mean value. That is to say, some sub sectors of excessive correction last year, such as medicine and consumption, will surge Now there is an opportunity for valuation repair, and there is a risk of valuation correction in some high boom tracks such as new energy, CXO and semiconductor. " A 10 billion private placement person in Shanghai said frankly.
Jiang Guangce, founder of Dechuan investment, who has been deeply involved in the pharmaceutical field for many years, also said bluntly: "the investment strategy of the pharmaceutical sector in 2022 is just one sentence: avoid the heavy positions of pharmaceutical funds since 2019 and look for the unpopular stocks with reversed performance in recent three years."
Jiang Guangce frankly said that with the transfer of the global industrial chain and the rise of China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) innovation, the CXO sector has maintained a high boom in recent years. As CXO is a labor-intensive industry, the number of employees is the main indicator to measure CXO's capacity. The data show that the average annual growth rate of the total number of employees of some CXO head enterprises from 2016 to 2020 exceeded 20%, but since 2021, the number of employees of most CXO enterprises has not increased significantly, and even some enterprises have declined to a certain extent. Superimposed on the valuation improvement of this sector in recent years, its investment cost performance has decreased significantly.
The vaccine sector is favored
Which pharmaceutical segments will private equity fund managers focus on in 2022?
Jiang Guangce said that investment opportunities in IVD (in vitro diagnosis industry) and new vaccines will continue to emerge this year. "There are many opportunities for IVD with a huge decline in 2021, because when everyone sells, the opportunity comes. At the same time, the covid-19 epidemic makes mRNA (messenger RNA) The R & D and application of vaccines have become more mature, and may be expected to subvert the market pattern of traditional vaccines in the future. With the continuous improvement of China's innovative technology in recent years, Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises are also accelerating into the mRNA vaccine track, and the growth prospect is worth looking forward to. "
It is worth noting that in the early morning of January 16, investment master Duan Yongping also aired his trading list on his social media account. He copied the bottom of the vaccine giant by selling put options. "I'm a little interested in mRNA now, but it doesn't belong to my ability circle. I bet happily and force myself. I hope I can roughly understand the company within a year," he wrote
