Today (January 18), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a pattern of differentiation. After the Shanghai index opened higher, it fluctuated higher. Although it fell back in the afternoon, it did not change the strong trend of shock; The gem refers to the weak arrangement in the morning market, which is exacerbated by the afternoon adjustment and accelerates the diving rhythm. On the whole, A-Shares walked out of the strong and weak trend of Shanghai all day.
In this regard, Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) believes that the probability of the main tone is "shock stabilization", and the space and probability of upward operation are greater than those of downward operation. At the operational level, it is suggested to pay attention to the low absorption opportunities of medium linear growth varieties on the basis of maintaining the position to rise.
At the same time, YueKai Securities pointed out that the policy expectation will be the main driving force of the market before the restless period in spring and the effective stage of steady growth. At present, monetary easing has been gradually realized, and the effect of credit easing has yet to be shown. Therefore, in the recent configuration, the main line is still steady growth, and attention is paid to the blue chip investment opportunities of the low-level infrastructure real estate chain, But at the same time, the market interpretation is not achieved overnight. We also need to be vigilant against the callback risk caused by over full expectation. In the medium and long term, at the stage of steady growth and remarkable effect, we should pay attention to the investment direction that is not expected to improve relative to profit growth.
sector:
I. infrastructure
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that recently, the central government mentioned the new special debt, focusing on water conservancy, transportation, municipal infrastructure construction, affordable housing projects and other fields. The Ministry of water resources mentioned the implementation of major projects of the national water network. We expect that the construction of underground pipe network and sponge city will bring sustainable increment during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The completion end of the real estate remained resilient, but the new construction and sales remained weak.
In terms of real estate, the easing signal has been gradually released, and the bottom of the policy has been found. We expect that the financing end of subsequent real estate enterprises and consumers is expected to be slightly relaxed. In addition, accelerating the construction of affordable rental housing during the 14th Five Year Plan period will bring some increment. Previously, the valuation of the decoration building materials sector has been in the lower position of the historical center due to the slowdown in demand, the rise of raw materials and cash flow pressure. Under the relaxed expectation of the margin of real estate, the decline of the high cost of raw materials, the gradual release of bad debt provision and cash flow risk expectation, the overall sector is expected to usher in performance and valuation repair.
Huaxin Securities pointed out that the inflection point of infrastructure growth has arrived, and Daji Construction Bank can be expected. Under the guidance of the 14th five year plan, the new infrastructure was accelerated. It is estimated that the investment scale of new infrastructure in 2022 will be 2002.7 billion yuan, with an increase of 452.4 billion yuan, with a growth rate of nearly 30%. We resumed the market trend of previous financial forces. With the current round of financial support, the growth rate of infrastructure is expected to face an inflection point in the first quarter, and the infrastructure market will usher in a small climax. The current round of infrastructure market will start with valuation repair and profit as support. Among them, the development of new infrastructure has entered an accelerated period and is more flexible as a whole.
The agency further analyzed that the five main investment lines jointly deduce the market of large infrastructure. (1) In the field of transportation and water conservancy, the policy design list of "transportation power" and "national water network" is clear. Looking back on the past market, the financial force drives the steady growth of infrastructure and generates excess returns. Daji Construction Bank first has valuation and repair, and then has performance support. In terms of industries, architectural decoration and construction machinery perform better.
(2) pipe network transformation and construction direction: the transformation and construction of pipe network is still a short board of sewage treatment. At present, there is a gap of about 400000 km of sewage pipeline. Combined with the average cost of 3 million for 1 km of sewage pipeline, there is a gap of about 1.2 trillion yuan in sewage pipe network alone, which is expected to bring excellent investment value to the environmental protection industry chain.
(3) energy sector represented by photovoltaic and wind power: we calculate that the investment in wind power and photovoltaic in 2022 will be 396 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 48.6%. With the accelerated construction of photovoltaic wind power field, the performance is expected to rise.
(4) new energy infrastructure direction with ultra-high voltage, energy storage and intelligent charging pile as the core: policy support is superimposed, the issuance of energy bonds is accelerated, and the prospect of new energy infrastructure is promising. The scale of UHV industrial chain is expected to increase steadily, and the energy storage related fields represented by new energy storage may develop rapidly.
(5) new intelligent infrastructure with 5g, big data center, industrial Internet and artificial intelligence as the core: the growth rate of data center and industrial Internet slowed down slightly and entered the stage of steady improvement; 5g base stations and artificial intelligence are still growing rapidly.
In addition, Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) mentioned that there is an obvious "restless spring" market in the cement index. In recent 20 years, the Q1 cement index has risen for 13 years, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index for 16 years, and the average relative return in recent five years is 7%. We believe that the combination of the steady growth policy and the high starting point of prices at the beginning of the year provides favorable support for this round of agitation, and the market can be expected in spring.
II. Bank
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) mentioned that the trend of 1q bank sector was better in history, and the relative return of bank stocks in January may be better. From the performance of the banking sector in recent five years, in addition to the abnormal impact of the epidemic in 2020, the growth of the banking sector in 2017-2019 and the first quarter / January of 2021 were 4.0% / 4.5%, - 2.1% / 12.5%, 4.0% / 8.2% and 11.9% / 7.5% respectively. Among them, in January, the banking sector ranked among the top five sectors, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.1, 6.4, 1.9 and 2.8pct respectively, with better relative earnings performance.
According to the investment suggestions, the institution further analyzed: ① for the high-quality listed banks that were obviously impacted by the real estate market in the early stage, the bottom shape after stock price adjustment is more obvious and has better flexibility; ② Continue to recommend high-quality listed banks in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other regions. These banks benefit from the advantages of regional economic environment and are more certain to continue the "volume increase and price stability" of credit supply.
In addition, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that the reduction of the policy interest rate in January reflects the policy intention of the central bank to grasp the monetary policy window at the beginning of the year to promote steady growth, credit and expectation. At present, China's economic operation is in the rebalancing stage of vivid weakening within macro policy overweight hedging. For bank investment, the interest rate reduction operation is expected to affect the interest margin expectation in the short term and benefit the consolidation of asset quality in the medium term. It is suggested to lengthen the time dimension to examine the allocation value of the sector.
Two clues can be followed for individual stock selection: 1) high quality Bank: the valuation premium is expected to continue, and the leading profit will bring continuous alpha income, such as China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) ; 2) Improving the bank: the profit elasticity comes from the stable growth of the income side and the adequacy and effectiveness of the provision side. If the current medium and undervalued value is superimposed, there is room for revaluation of the stock price, including Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) and Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) .
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) also said that bank stocks rebounded significantly and the market opened in the first quarter. Looking forward to 2022, wide credit is the boundary of market consensus. It is difficult to determine the subject and scale of wide credit outside the boundary. However, from the perspective of structure, in the incremental credit structure since 2019, the proportion of individual non housing loans has gradually increased, which is the only reliable logic from top to bottom. Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) are recommended.
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