On January 17, the overall strength of the photovoltaic sector was boosted by the official announcement of the increase in the price of silicon wafers in the whole line of “photovoltaic Mao” Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (601012. SH) the day before yesterday.
On January 17, the photovoltaic sector changed from continuous decline to red, and the photovoltaic concept increased by 1.09%, of which the leading Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) rose by nearly 4% in the morning, and finally rose by 2.22% to close at 81.01 yuan / share. Meanwhile, according to the data, since 2022, northbound funds have purchased Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) 406 million yuan in total, with a net transaction of 146 million yuan.
First price increase after two price cuts
According to the official website of Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , on January 16, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) updated the price of monocrystalline silicon p-type silicon wafer, compared with the quotation on December 16. 158.75mm silicon wafer increased by 0.12 yuan / piece, and the latest quotation was 4.95 yuan / piece, an increase of 2.5%; 166mm silicon wafer increased by 0.12 yuan / piece, and the latest quotation was 5.15 yuan / piece, an increase of 2.4%; 182mm silicon wafer increased by 0.3 yuan / piece, and the latest quotation was 6.15 yuan / piece, an increase of 5.1%.
It is worth mentioning that this is a sudden price increase after Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) previously lowered the price of silicon wafers twice.
Prior to this, the cost pressure caused by the price rise of upstream raw materials has significantly affected the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity. Under the influence of factors such as the game between supply and demand, silicon wafers fell for the first time in late November last year. Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) even lower prices twice on November 30 and December 16, 2021.
However, in the case of high raw material prices, it is difficult for silicon wafers to continue to reduce prices, and the rebound will come soon. Pvinfolink data show that the decline of monocrystalline silicon wafer has stopped on December 22, 2021. On December 29, the price of polysilicon began to rebound, 166mm / 165 μ M monocrystalline silicon wafer rose slightly to 4.95 yuan / wafer. By January 12, 2022, 182mm / 165 μ The price of M monocrystalline silicon wafer increased to 5.85 yuan / wafer, an increase of 2.63% over December 22, 2021.
But on the whole, the price increase on January 17 is more like a careful repair. Taking Longji M10 silicon wafer as an example, the latest quotation still has a decrease of about 10% compared with last October.
Two major price drivers are still
For the Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) increase in silicon wafer prices across the board, relevant people from leading component enterprises told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the main driving factors of Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) the price increase are silicon material cost support and terminal demand support. The person also told reporters that from the current silicon material price and terminal demand, the two price boosting factors are still there, and the possibility of continued price rise of silicon wafers cannot be ruled out in the future.
The Research Report of securities companies also holds a similar view. According to the Research Report of Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) , the latest quotation of the industrial chain shows that at present, the orders of 230-235 yuan of mainstream silicon material enterprises have been signed until the end of February, and some silicon material enterprises that have implemented until the end of January are expected to raise the quotation in February, and the quotation is expected to rise to 240-245 yuan / kg; The price of large-size silicon wafers also increased slightly compared with last week. The operating rate of front-line enterprises increased to about 60% – 70%. Most enterprises have relatively full production scheduling plans for the Spring Festival.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) pointed out that considering that several new silicon material production capacity put into operation in the fourth quarter of last year is still in the production capacity climbing period, although it has not reached the production capacity, but the supply increases month by month, the silicon material price rebounds at the current time point and price, which we think is more than expected. Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) believes that from the perspective of terminal demand, with a round of industrial chain price correction before the end of the year, some orders signed in the fourth quarter of 2021 entered the “executable” price range, driving a significant increase in industrial production scheduling in January; In addition, with the decline of component prices, after the New Year holiday, end customers outside China have resumed signing orders, gradually improving the visibility of orders from February to March. From the perspective of recent component bidding prices, the enterprise’s quotation is moderate, which also alleviates the sentiment of terminal buying up or not buying down to a certain extent; From the micro dynamics of the industrial chain, with the industry’s consensus expectation of the peak of silicon material price in the middle of the fourth quarter of 2021, the industry smoothly completed a wave of active start-up reduction and inventory removal in December 2021, and the middle and downstream inventory was generally low at the end of the year. With the recent significant increase in production scheduling / orders in the first quarter of 2022, the low inventory superimposed the demand for goods before the Spring Festival, The purchase intention / demand of silicon material shows an obvious warming trend.
In addition, Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) also pointed out that recently, the operating rate of battery chips in the industry has also increased accordingly with the silicon chips. From the micro dynamics of the industrial chain, the interactive relationship between the price of battery chips and silicon chips is gradually transitioning from “passivation / lag of silicon chip price reduction” to “positive follow-up of silicon chip price increase”, and the growth of perc battery capacity has basically stopped Under the background that the n-type production capacity still needs to be released, the profit repair of battery is expected to be gradually realized with the release of new silicon supply.
