After reducing the price of silicon wafers twice, photovoltaic leading stock Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (601012. SH) announced a comprehensive price increase for silicon wafers, and the price of monocrystalline silicon wafers of various specifications increased by 2.4% ~ 5.1% compared with a month ago.
As a leading enterprise, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) has a wind vane effect in the industry. Previously, the company lowered the price of silicon wafers twice, Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) (002129. SZ) followed the price reduction, and the "price war" of silicon wafers began.
Silicon wafer price reduction is recognized as an effective way to release downstream demand. In 2021, the supply chain price game of the photovoltaic industry runs through the whole year, and the continuous price rise at the silicon material end suppresses the terminal demand, resulting in a lower than expected growth rate of new installed capacity in the whole year.
It's only more than a month since Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) first reduced the price of silicon wafers. Does raising the price of silicon wafers mean that the price of silicon wafers is too hard? Is the "price war" over?
after reducing the price of silicon wafers twice, why did Longji raise the price across the board
On the 16th, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) adjusted the official quotation of single crystal silicon wafer, and the single crystal p-type silicon wafer increased by 0.12 yuan / piece to 4.95 yuan / piece; M6 silicon wafer increased by 0.12 yuan / piece to 5.1 yuan / piece; M10 silicon wafer rose 0.30 yuan / piece to 6.15 yuan / piece, an increase of 2.4% - 5.1%. The prices of other links of the industrial chain remain unchanged.
In terms of share price, as of the closing on January 17, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) closed at 81.01 yuan, down 6% during the year, with a total market value of 435.8 billion yuan. Another single crystal silicon giant Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) closed at 41.01 yuan on January 17, with a total market value of 13.25 billion yuan.
Compared with the previous price reduction range, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) the price increase is not large. On November 30, 2021, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) lowered the price of silicon wafers of all sizes for the first time, down by 0.14 yuan / piece ~ 0.67 yuan / piece, a decrease of 7.2% to 9.8%; Half a month later, on December 16, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) lowered the silicon wafer price again by 5.45% - 5.66%.
In the long run, the price reduction of silicon wafers, on the one hand, is conducive to guiding the price of the industrial chain to develop in a healthy direction; on the other hand, it is conducive to promoting the decline of the industry's kwh cost and industrial development, and improving the terminal demand. However, the first quarter is often the off-season for downstream installation, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) the sudden price rise has aroused great concern in the market.
"The main factor supporting the price of silicon wafer is the price of silicon material at the raw material end, which directly determines the cost of silicon wafer enterprises. Recently, the price of silicon material has rebounded after continuous decline, or it is the main reason for silicon wafer enterprises to adjust their quotation." A new energy industry analyst told reporters.
The data show that when Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) raised the price of silicon wafer, the silicon material was maintained at 230 yuan / kg, and the lowest price increased by 4 yuan / kg to 215 yuan / kg compared with last week. The price increased in the short term.
In 2021, the head silicon material enterprises continued to expand production, but subject to the capacity construction period of about 10 months, most of the new capacity failed to land, and the prices of various links formed by the shortage of silicon materials and the sharp rise in prices took turns, which finally restrained the downstream demand.
What worries the market is that after a short two-week decline, the silicon material has ushered in a rise again. How long will the current silicon price rebound last? Whether it will affect downstream demand.
In the view of the above analysts, the price rise of silicon material in the off-season actually reflects the strong demand in the downstream.
\u3000\u3000 "There is an interactive relationship between upstream and downstream of the photovoltaic industry chain, and the upstream price reduction helps to stimulate the release of downstream demand. In turn, the growth of downstream demand will lead to changes in the supply and demand pattern of silicon materials, silicon wafers and components, which may lead to upstream price increases. The price rise of silicon materials in 2021 is due to the strong downstream demand and the inability of upstream supply to meet. From the downstream point of view, demand continues to flourish Sheng said that with the significant increase in the month on month orders scheduled for production in the recent first quarter, the low inventory superimposed the stock demand before the Spring Festival, resulting in a significant recovery in the purchase intention and demand of silicon materials. " He told reporters.
the silicon material capacity is still tight, and the new capacity may be intensively released in the second quarter
In 2022, the demand of photovoltaic industry is expected to maintain rapid growth and improve quarterly. After the silicon material restricts the downstream demand in 2021, the silicon material output is regarded as one of the most important factors determining the new installed capacity throughout the year, and its output release will synchronously drive the year-on-year growth of corresponding installed capacity, components and other links.
According to the statistics of the first financial reporter, at present, the new capacity of many silicon material enterprises, including GCL, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) (600438. SH), Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) (688303. SH), Asian silicon industry and so on, will be put into operation in 2022. Led by Tongwei and GCL, the expansion scale reached 100000 tons. According to the plan of 8 silicon head enterprises in the world, the total capacity of 8 enterprises is expected to increase by 79.7% in 2022 and 20.6% in 2021.
Huajin securities research report pointed out that the tension of silicon material is expected to be relieved in 2022, and the price center may move down. In terms of demand, according to the expected new installed capacity of 220gw, the demand for polysilicon in 2022 is about 740000 tons and the new demand is about 180000 tons. In terms of supply, the annual effective capacity of the projects expected to be released in the first half of the year has exceeded 180000 tons. With the projects put into operation in the second half of the year, it is expected that the tension of silicon material will be relieved in 2022 and the price center of silicon material will move down.
At present, the overall expansion plan of silicon material end means that there will be overcapacity in the near future. However, the current core contradiction is that the climbing speed of new capacity is still unable to meet the downstream demand, and the silicon material supply is still tight.
\u3000\u3000 "At present, we can see that the production capacity of silicon material in the second half of the year should be significantly faster than that in the first half of next year, and the price decline should be greater. Due to the market's expectations for the new production capacity of silicon material, the price of silicon material peaked in the middle of the fourth quarter of 2021, which has formed a consistent expectation. Silicon material rebounded at this time point, which exceeded the market's expectations to a certain extent, but the rebound will not be too large." The analysts said.
The above analysts also said, "considering the impact of measures such as capacity climbing progress and 'dual control' of energy consumption, it is expected that the release progress of industrial capacity will be significantly accelerated in 2022, and the annual effective capacity will reach about 790000 tons. The growth of effective capacity may mainly focus on the second half of 2022, and the game between silicon wafer and silicon price may continue".
"Although the current silicon material competition pattern is good, this phenomenon is relatively short-term, because the formation of a high price alliance will eventually affect the downstream demand, which in turn will affect the silicon material demand. With the new production capacity put into operation, the silicon material manufacturers themselves are expected to have a lot of inventory to be cleared." He added.
It should be noted that the profits of the photovoltaic industry chain in 2022 will not only focus on the equipment and raw materials. Last year, due to the price rise of silicon materials, the profit suppressed components, inverters and auxiliary materials are expected to benefit from the demand growth after the upstream supply bottleneck is opened.
"In 2022, the profit distribution trend of the industrial chain will be differentiated. With the accelerated release of silicon production capacity and high demand, the profitability of battery chips and components will be stable or repaired upward month on month; the gross profit of single ton and single chip will inevitably decline at the end of silicon materials and silicon chips." The analyst added.
