brief description of disk
A shares rebounded on Monday, led by the gem index. On the disk, the Internet, software, computer equipment, communications, cultural media, auto parts, electronic components, consumer electronics, games, semiconductors and other industries led the increase, while the pharmaceutical business, energy metals, medical devices, medical services, traditional Chinese medicine and other industries made a slight correction. In terms of subject stocks, covid-19 drugs, Huawei Euler, digital currency, smart government, lidar, data security and domestic software led the rise; In vitro diagnosis, aquaculture and the concept of prefabricated dishes were slightly revised back.
message plane
the national development and Reform Commission issued a notice and deployed to do a good job in promoting consumption in the near future
Take measures according to local conditions to meet residents' festival consumption needs. Adhere to the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, stabilize and expand consumption, implement local main responsibilities, prevent simplification, "one size fits all" and "layer by layer" prevention and control, and minimize the impact on people's production and life. Innovate and enrich New Year's meals, encourage the provision of multi category packages, self catering, online booking of new year's Eve food materials and other services, and encourage the production and sale of semi-finished products and "clean dishes on the market".
the official launch of the reform of goods and bank payment is more conducive to attracting overseas funds
A reform of "cash for goods" (DVP) was officially launched! The smooth implementation of this reform will help to reduce the overall payment proportion of settlement provisions, improve the use efficiency of market funds and further stimulate the vitality of the market. On January 14, the CSRC officially launched the reform of cash versus delivery, soliciting opinions from the market on the proposed revised administrative measures for securities registration and settlement, and China Securities Depository and Clearing Co., Ltd. solicited opinions on the settlement rules and administrative measures for settlement provisions simultaneously. It is reported that DVP is a basic system widely used in the international market to ensure the full settlement of money and securities after securities transactions are completed.
the central bank cut MLF and reverse repo interest rates by 10 basis points
In order to maintain the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system, on January 17, 2022, the people's Bank of China carried out RMB 700 billion medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and RMB 100 billion open market reverse repurchase operation. The bid winning interest rate of medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and open market reverse repurchase operation decreased by 10 basis points.
Jufeng view
Medium term strategy:
Jufeng investment adviser believes that the liquidity at the macro level has gradually improved, and the PMI index has turned upward for two consecutive months, indicating that the medium-term market of A-Shares is expected to be better, and the offensive in spring will be gradually launched.
Pre market judgment: in the early review of "A shares will accelerate the bottom building process", it is pointed out that the news over the weekend is mixed. It is expected that A-Shares will continue to callback on Monday, and it is inevitable that the Shanghai index will open low, which does not rule out the possibility of stepping back on 3500 points; The annual report forecast of Big Mac listed companies may have an impact on the market. The annual report forecast was released on China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) on Friday, with a performance growth rate of 54 ~ 66%, but in fact, the performance in the fourth quarter decreased month on month compared with the same period last year! In addition, the reduction of Maotai holdings by three foreign funds may also cause the market to be vigilant against overvalued stocks. The gem is expected to rise driven by technology stocks.
In fact:
Before trading, the central bank released heavy benefits: after the expiration of 500 billion MLF, it continued to make 700 billion MLF, and conducted 100 billion reverse repurchase, equivalent to a net investment of 300 billion yuan, and the bid winning interest rate decreased by 10 basis points. Under this influence, A-Shares opened slightly higher. Gem rebounded sharply, and domestic software, intelligent driving, semiconductor and other technology stocks rose sharply. Last week's strong sector traditional Chinese medicine, prefabricated dishes and covid-19 detection collective callback.
In the afternoon, pay attention to the change of market volume and energy. If the rebound cannot be released for a long time, the effectiveness of the rebound will be tested again in the late trading or tomorrow.
Investment suggestions:
Recently, the market sector rotates very fast. After a sharp rise, we should evacuate in time and switch to the next potential opportunity point. After new year's day, A-shares continued to callback. It is suggested that the midline bargain hunting pay attention to technology stocks such as intelligent driving and chips with large growth space. In the short term, we can focus on four opportunities: state-owned assets reform, high annual growth, securities companies and oversold new shares.
