Industry status
In the past two weeks, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market fell by 4.3%, the HSCEI index rose by 3.9%, and the A-share transportation index fell by 0.1%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market by 4.2ppt, ranking No. 6 / 29 in various industries. By sector, the airport sector rose 3.4%, the port sector rose 1.5%, the railway sector rose 0.7%, the high-speed sector rose 0.4%, the aviation sector fell 0.1%, the logistics sector fell 0.7% and the shipping sector fell 1.6%.
Commentary
Biweekly topic: growth depends on logistics and cycle depends on aviation. In the past year, the transportation sector has been greatly affected by the epidemic. Centralized transportation, cross-border e-commerce, aviation logistics and bulk supply chain have developed well under the epidemic, and aviation and airports have been seriously damaged. In the coming year, as the epidemic situation eases, it is suggested to pay attention to the sectors that benefit from the epidemic situation or are not closely related to the epidemic situation, such as aviation and subdivided logistics. We believe that the logistics industry will continue to improve in the next decade. In the next 1-2 years, with the gradual dissipation of the impact of the epidemic, the further improvement of supply and demand will bring potential seat rate and fare elasticity.
Industry view: cross border air transport: entering the off-season of the first quarter, cross-border air transport tariff callback. On January 10, the average cross-border air freight rate decreased by 10.2% compared with two weeks ago and increased by 49.1% compared with the same period in 2021. We expect 1H22 freight rate to remain relatively high. Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) is recommended. Chemical logistics: the chemical market has warmed up. The warehousing demand of main chemical products has warmed up after entering the warehouse accumulation cycle. Pay attention to the leading companies in the chemical supply chain. Real time distribution: the growth rate of the community slows down. We believe that the real-time retail competition pattern of Zhonggao has improved, and recommend dada. Vehicle and goods matching: it is recommended that the vehicle and goods matching faucet be full. Express delivery: in December, the growth rate of industry business slowed down to 10.7%, and the year-on-year decline of average unit price (after deducting the adjustment factors of individual brand income caliber) narrowed to 3.1% and + 2.3% month on month. We believe that leading express companies are expected to usher in the gradual repair of valuation and performance, and recommend Zhongtong, Yunda and Yuantong. Supply chain logistics: industrial upgrading, digital technology and cost reduction and efficiency increase promote development, and Xiamen Xiangyu Co.Ltd(600057) , Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) are recommended.
Industry view: Shipping: ocean freight rates remain high, and domestic freight rates fall in the off-season. Centralized transportation: on January 14, the SCFI US west line increased by 4.1% compared with two weeks ago, and the SCFI European line increased by 0.6% compared with two weeks ago. On January 7, the domestic trade PDCI index was 1816 points, down 5.8% from two weeks ago, up 19.1% year-on-year, optimistic about Shanghai Zhonggu Logistics Co.Ltd(603565) . Dry bulk cargo: affected by concerns about the epidemic isolation policy and the off-season of China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) activities, the BDI index has continued to decline in recent two weeks, focusing on The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) shipping. Oil transportation: at present, the freight rate is still low. Pay attention to the trend of dismantling old ships and replenishing inventory. Local travel: it is recommended to pay attention to policy trends. Highway: high performance growth in 2021 (low base in 2020), high-quality sector to stabilize cash flow, mainly Anhui Expressway Company Limited(600012) and Guangdong Expressway.
Aviation: the long-term supply and demand improvement of the industry can be expected. The promotion of vaccine and specific drug research and development and the change of virus characteristics are expected to become the sector catalyst. It is suggested to pay attention to the opening node of the international line. Recommend China Eastern Airlines, Air China H shares, spring and autumn, Jixiang and AVIC. Railway: long term optimistic Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) .
Valuation and recommendations
Recommended portfolio: A shares: Xiamen Xiangyu Co.Ltd(600057) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Shanghai Zhonggu Logistics Co.Ltd(603565) , Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) ; Hong Kong and US stocks: Zhongtong express-us, manbang group-us.
Risk
The oil price fluctuated abnormally, the economic growth was lower than expected, and the promotion progress and effectiveness of covid-19 drugs were lower than expected.
