China news, Jingwei, January 17 Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) released a research report that throughout the year, essential consumer goods represented by aquaculture, planting, food processing industry, textile and garment, rubber products, etc. are still the most deterministic investment main line in 2022.
The research report believes that it is still a calm period after “winter agitation”. Due to the pre positioning of monetary and fiscal policies, the emergence of macro liquidity inflection point and the performance vacuum period after the release of the third quarterly report, the market has been restless. At present, with the realization of macro logic, listed companies return to the performance disclosure period, and the market is returning to calm. On the whole, there is no systemic risk in the market, but it still needs to wait for the market to recover after the Spring Festival.
From the perspective of market structure, since the beginning of the year, the market style has begun to change greatly, especially some popular tracks have dropped greatly, while the performance of consumer goods and stable growth related industries is better. We believe that the core of such changes lies in the change of incremental funds this year, which is also the key to understand the main line of the market this year.
The research report believes that this year’s market incremental funds mainly come from the switching of macro allocation funds. In the past and this year, the attribute of incremental funds often determines the overall style of the market. The rapid rise of foreign capital and Chinese public offering has made the overall market style pay more attention to the changes of molecular profit in the past few years.
The research report points out that looking forward to 2022, with the continuous transfer of residents’ wealth and the decline in the income of traditional fixed income investments such as superimposed credit, convertible bonds and innovation, more and more macro allocation funds begin to actively layout the equity market, which will also become a new source of incremental funds.
The research report believes that the market can be more active in the first half of the year. With the recent overseas epidemic rising to a new high, the disturbance to the global economy began to appear, and the overseas market is expected to return to “recession trading”. Considering that China’s monetary policy still needs to be relaxed, and superimposed on the economic support of the landing of local infrastructure projects and the resumption of work in the spring of the Chinese new year, the market should not be overly pessimistic in the first half of the year.
The research report believes that structurally, it pays attention to the opportunities of building materials, construction, household appliances, communications, banking, real estate and other industries related to steady growth in the short term, and actively arranges the new energy, military industry, auto parts, etc. whose annual report performance is still bright. Throughout the year, essential consumer goods represented by aquaculture, planting, food processing, textiles and clothing, rubber products, etc. are still the most deterministic investment main line in 2022. The theme focuses on food security and opportunities related to the meta universe.
