Prefabricated dishes have become the hottest concept of food and catering track recently.
Recently, the popularity of the concept of prefabricated dishes has not decreased, Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) (002330. SZ) has harvested four trading boards in a row, Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) (300094. SZ) has risen by 9.39% as of the closing, and Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) (601007. SH) has risen for three consecutive trading days.
In contrast, catering enterprises in Hong Kong stocks have encountered a "cold winter".
On January 17, Hong Kong Catering stocks collectively fell, including Naixue's tea (02150. HK) fell by more than 8%, Haidilao (06862. HK) fell by more than 5%, yum China (09987. HK) fell by more than 4%, and Xiabu Xiabu (00520. HK) fell by more than 1%.
It must be pointed out that although China's Prefabricated vegetable market has begun to take shape, it is still in the early stage of development compared with mature international markets such as the United States and Japan.
But the butterfly effect caused by the epidemic has changed all this.
According to the analysis of insiders, due to the coexistence of multi-point distribution and local outbreak of the epidemic in China, local governments advocate local Chinese New Year and home Chinese new year, which leads to the fluctuation of the catering industry, making the concept of prefabricated dishes rise suddenly, and there are many uncertainties in the development of chain catering stores.
With the New Year approaching, can prefabricated dishes really replace offline stores and become the first choice for new year's Eve dinner?
epidemic triggered drastic changes in the catering industry?
Since the epidemic, the catering market has struggled several times.
Towards the end of the year, as a leading enterprise, Xiabu Xiabu and Haidilao successively revealed their customs clearance plans during the year. In December 2021, Hong Kong stock catering also experienced a collective decline. At that time, Goldman Sachs released a report that it was expected that the epidemic would continue to affect mainland catering stocks in the first half of 2022, lowered the profit forecast and target price of catering stocks, and adjusted the ratings of Xiabu Xiabu and Haidilao.
However, Hong Kong Catering stocks did not end their decline. On January 17, catering stocks fell again. "As the Chinese New Year approaches, the impact of the recent epidemic on catering cannot be ignored. However, from the policies issued in Beijing and other places, there are no mandatory requirements for the local Chinese new year, which does not rule out the possibility that most young people will still go home for the Chinese New Year." Marketing expert Tang Li believes.
The reporter of new consumption daily learned in the interview that up to now, the new year's Eve dinner reservations of Beijing jinmillion, China Quanjude(Group) Co.Ltd(002186) , cheap square and other hotels are basically the same as last year, but there is still a big gap compared with 2019. "The price and dishes of the new year's Eve meal package have been adjusted twice, basically 20% off the price in 2019." Cheap workshop staff told reporters.
However, the above staff stressed that with the stabilization of epidemic prevention and control, the climax of new year's Eve dinner reservation is about January 27-30. The main reservation group is still mainly nearby residents, and the vast majority is based on families. "There are also cases where young people Book takeout for new year's Eve dinner on the spot, but not many."
In fact, behind the market boom in prefabricated dishes and the "look bad" offline catering is the speculation about whether young people will spend the new year at home and on the spot. Tang Li believes that from the consumption performance of new year's Day holiday, offline catering is still the main consumption scene, and prefabricated dishes are still in the early stage of development.
According to the Research Report of Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) , the turnover rate of Haidilao increased significantly in the first week of January 2022, with 4.5, 4.7 and 3.5 times / day in the first tier, second tier, third tier and below cities respectively, which shows that the performance of Haidilao is bright on New Year's day.
home economy detonates prefabricated dishes
However, under the influence of the epidemic, the secondary market is still worried about the recovery of the catering industry. From the rise of prefabricated dishes, we can see that the housing economy is gradually "out of the circle".
On the 4th, Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) proposed to issue additional shares to raise 1 billion yuan to invest in the deep processing of aquatic products and the central kitchen project of aquatic products. It is reported that the company will allocate 200 million yuan to the construction of a central kitchen for frozen products such as shrimp dumplings, grilled fish and shrimp slides; 500 million yuan was invested in crayfish and fish deep-processing projects.
In the Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) fund-raising prospectus, the market prospect of Chinese prefabricated dishes is analyzed in detail. As far as the industry is concerned, in addition to policy incentives, China's increasing residents' income and consumption level, fast pace of urban life, the pursuit of green and healthy food and the improvement of cold chain logistics technology all make the market prospect of prefabricated vegetables continue to improve.
On the day of the announcement, Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) quickly closed after noon, with a single day increase of 20%.
Driven by it, prefabricated vegetable concept stocks, such as Springsnow Food Group Co.Ltd(605567) (chicken processing), Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Great-Sun Foods Co.Ltd(603336) (fruit processing), Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) (catering fast food), Shandong Huifa Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603536) (quick-frozen conditioned meat products), Dahu Aquaculture Co.Ltd(600257) (frozen aquatic products), etc., rose and approached the limit.
Since then, a number of listed companies have announced that they will layout the field of prefabricated vegetables. Among them, Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) announced that its subsidiary will focus on the research and development of prefabricated vegetable production; Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) also said that it would take prefabricated dishes as one of the key development businesses; Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) has reached a strategy and cooperation with HEMA fresh; Zoneco Group Co.Ltd(002069) which was ridiculed by the group because of the "scallop escape" incident also announced that its seafood prefabricated dishes have been listed
In the bustle, Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) in the first 10 trading days of 2022, the cumulative increase was 116.1%; While Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) , Fortune Ng Fung Food (Hebei) Co.Ltd(600965) , Haixin Foods Co.Ltd(002702) , Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) rose for four consecutive times, with a cumulative increase of more than 46%; Springsnow Food Group Co.Ltd(605567) also rose 24.67% in the last four trading days
Is the popularity of prefabricated dishes hype or the future?
Although more and more catering enterprises and brands pour into the prefabricated vegetable track, the development of this segment is still in its infancy.
The new consumption daily learned that most of the enterprises that announced to enter the prefabricated vegetable business, such as Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) , Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) , accounted for less than 5% of the revenue of the prefabricated vegetable business.
This is even true for hotels and restaurants, not to mention animal husbandry enterprises that do not take prefabricated vegetables as the key layout, and it is unlikely that the proportion of prefabricated vegetables' revenue will increase.
At the same time, although the Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Springsnow Food Group Co.Ltd(605567) of the prefabricated food vertical track and Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Haixin Foods Co.Ltd(002702) , Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) revenue and profit of the frozen food track are stable, the growth rate is not brilliant.
By the third quarter of 2021, Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) had achieved a net profit of 103 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.02%; Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) net profit was 55.555 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.88%; Springsnow Food Group Co.Ltd(605567) realized a net profit of 68.228 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.68%; Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) the net profit was 385 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.54%; The Haixin Foods Co.Ltd(002702) accumulated operating loss was 32.195 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 148.92%.
At present, the Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) of "the limelight is booming" has accumulated losses of more than 700 million yuan in 2019 and 2020, turned losses into profits in 2021, and the accumulated net profit in the third quarter is only 12.0694 million yuan.
In this regard, Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) the research report believes that the entry threshold of the prefabricated vegetable industry is relatively low, and the overall competition pattern of the industry is very scattered. There are no large single products with a certain scale and national leading enterprises, so it is difficult to develop in a full range and all channels.
Although a stable competition pattern has not been formed at the production and processing end, prefabricated dishes have become the focus of major supermarket channels at the consumer end.
The 2021 consumption trend report recently released by Ding Dong shopping shows that young people's acceptance of prefabricated dishes is increasing day by day, and consumers' stereotype of low quality and unhealthy prefabricated dishes has also changed greatly.
Taking the data of dingdong shopping platform as an example, more than 70% of the users who buy prefabricated vegetables are under 35, which is also the main force of consumption at present. In terms of time, orders for prefabricated vegetables on weekdays and weekends accounted for 66% and 34% respectively.
The new consumption daily learned from dingdong shopping department that in 2021, there were more than 1000 SKUs in dingdong shopping prefabricated vegetable series, and the national regional sales volume exceeded 100 million, with a year-on-year increase of 300%, while the penetration rate of orders including prefabricated vegetables in the overall orders has exceeded 40%.
Meanwhile, Sam's club, Yonghui, Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) and other enterprises have also developed their own prefabricated vegetable brands.
It is worth mentioning that some powerful minority prefabricated food brands have also been favored by capital. According to tianyancha data, in addition to IPO and private placement, a total of 11 enterprises related to prefabricated dishes received investment in 2021, including the Hefu noodle brand planning to build a 100000 square meter food processing industrial park.
It can be predicted that with more and more commodity forms and innovations of prefabricated dishes, they can keep up with the increasingly detailed needs of consumers. The prefabricated dishes developed based on user needs and diversified dining scenarios will become a new force for the rapid development of the catering industry relying on the ability of the supply chain.
