At the beginning of 2022, A-Shares continued their decline in December last year. Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai index has fallen by more than 3% and the gem index has fallen by more than 6%.
Investors and institutions have a stronger sense of body. The “good start” of public fund issuance is no longer; Subjective long and quantitative private equity funds have withdrawn one after another, and even the net private equity value of many 10 billion stars has fallen near the liquidation line of 0.8; More brokerage sales lamented to reporters that the quantitative issuance of index enhancement products fell to “index weakening”; Many financial managers in the financial department of banks are even more worried. On the one hand, they have to “massage” the gold owners whose net value has fallen to “underwater”, on the other hand, they have to deal with redemption.
At the same time, the equity investment manager of the bank’s wealth management subsidiary is under great psychological pressure. “Fortunately, many wealth management products are closed for six months to one year. In addition, the proportion of equity is small, and the net value can come back after boiling. It’s always better to fall before the Spring Festival and then after the festival.” A financial sub investment manager of a joint-stock bank told reporters.
Most investment managers and strategists told reporters that in the face of institutional position adjustment, high-level stock correction and economic growth pressure in the first quarter, A-Shares need to break first and then stand up.
the net value of 10 billion private placement fell below 80 cents
Institutions generally believe that there are three reasons for the sharp decline in the beginning of the year: the rise of US bond interest rates has caused turmoil in the global stock market; At the beginning of the year, institutions concentrated on adjusting positions from high valuation to low valuation; The new development fund is less than expected and has doubts about the scale of incremental funds.
According to datayes, as of the closing on January 13, 2022, the net inflow of northbound funds has been 13.649 billion yuan this year, up from 7.445 billion yuan last week.
Since January, the large withdrawal of 100 billion and 10 billion private placement net worth has frequently triggered heated discussion. For example, recently, some investors received a risk warning letter that a product of Xitai investment touched the early warning line / stop loss line. The early warning line of the product is 0.8, which has fallen to 0.791, with a pullback of more than 20%. It is reported that the product was established in the second half of 2021, and its net value has suffered a large loss since December of the same year. After the beginning of this year, the gem experienced rapid adjustment, and the net loss of the product further expanded.
It is worth noting that the tripartite platform shows that more than 10% of Xitai’s products have also retreated since the beginning of the year. In response, the investment director of the institution said that “it is like a nightmare” and “we will do our best to give you an explanation”.
Zhu Jigang, investment director of Xitai investment, said: “for the first time in five years, growth stocks have been systematically tortured by medium-term logical changes… The decline of some positions has been exacerbated, which is like a nightmare for us.”
\u3000\u3000 “We have a tendentious judgment on the general direction of the policy. Of course, we can only accept the final direction of the policy… The sharp decline in the market under hazy expectations has really hit the” seven inches “of our investment style. This kind of situation that has expectations for emotions but has nothing to do is sour and nameless. We also understand that emotions are always extreme, i We didn’t know anything at the initial stage, and we didn’t respond well at the later stage. We’re ashamed to resume trading now. “
Recently, the reporter found that there are not a few institutions with loose game policy, but similar institutions have fallen miserably. At present, the easing policy remains to be brewing, and the issuance of special bonds last year lags behind. Cheng Hao, manager of Fidelity International Bond Fund, told reporters earlier that “the issuance of new local government special bonds in 2021 lags behind. The biggest constraint is the project yield, and the relevant local assessment is linked to the project yield.”
Lin Peng, the star fund manager who resigned from Dongfanghong asset management in 2020 and founded harmonious Huiyi, has also had a hard time recently. He has always been optimistic about the market valuation expansion momentum of Panasonic. At the macro level, Lin Peng recently believes that, “How to resolve real estate risks is the key battle of this round of reform. We expect that the real estate policy will be structurally relaxed, the policy intends to guide the industry to clear out, and the industry pattern will be reshaped. In addition, the investment rhythm of traditional infrastructure will be moderately advanced, and the new infrastructure investment represented by information infrastructure, charging pile, energy storage, photovoltaic power station, etc. will provide marginal increment.”
“At the end of 2020, the agency raised nearly 20 billion yuan, and the net value of some products has fallen to more than 90 cents underwater recently.” Recently, a sales organization participating in the organization’s strategy meeting disclosed to the first financial reporter, “they are actually very optimistic, which makes us very uneasy about the net value. They bet on monetary easing and said that the medium and long term of Shanghai stock exchange can exceed 6000.”
In addition to harmony Huiyi, there is Zhengxin Valley in a similar situation. A joint real name report of investors on the well-known 10 billion private placement Zhengxin valley spread in the industry. By the end of 2021, the net value of the company’s products had fallen to 0.66 yuan, and the products of more than 30 billion yuan had caused a loss of 10 billion yuan to investors. At that time, a sales organization lamented to reporters, “what a happy thing to suddenly find a stop loss line of 0.8”.
quantitative strategy short-term pressure
In addition to the long strategy, quantification has not been spared. In this regard, some people sighed in the circle of friends with lyrics, “you have all the factors that have plummeted”.
During the week from January 3 to 7, the performances of CSI 300, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were – 2.39%, – 2.50% and – 4.09% respectively. According to the private placement ranking network, there was a large excess pullback in the enhanced performance of the relevant indexes of head quantitative private placement, and most of the net value decreased by more than 5%.
As early as the end of last year, the CEO of 100 billion quantitative private magic square forwarded a screenshot in the circle of friends and said he was very sorry for his bad performance in recent months. “We are working overtime to do R & D, but it does take some time. At this time, it is impossible for investors not to feel uncomfortable, so scold me and scold us for fully accepting. Just don’t do it.” According to the data, the magic square quantitative 500 index exclusive No. 65 phase 1 has gained – 6.14% this year (as of January 7), and the China Securities 500 fell 3.72% in the same period.
Last week, a quantitative private placement source disclosed that in December 2021, some custodians had received window guidance, requiring private placement managers not to withdraw the performance remuneration of the excess return in the case of customer losses, and the customer’s share held after the withdrawal is completed cannot be in a loss state. At the same time, some quantitative private placement products are no longer applicable to the fast filing channel, the filing cycle is lengthened, and the supervision of quantitative private placement industry is becoming stricter.
Wu Zhaoyin, director of macro strategy of AVIC trust, told reporters that this trend has not changed since the sharp decline of quantitative product performance after the fourth quarter of 2021, which has led to the redemption of quantitative products in the market. It can be expected that the scale of quantitative products this year will be difficult to maintain last year’s level.
The pressure and scale constraints of market correction restrict the performance of quantitative private placement in 2022. According to the data of private placement network, the number of 10 billion private placements in 2021 increased from 62 at the end of 2020 to 105. In just one year, 43 private placement managers jumped to 10 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 69.35%.
The quantitative investment director of the asset management department of a foreign securities firm told reporters, “at present, a considerable part of the excess return of private quantitative institutions still comes from transactional alpha. Strategically, it is no longer a pure daily frequency position adjustment superimposed T + 0 strategy, but to the extent of multiple position adjustment within the day, it is more and more dependent on transactional alpha.
However, with the expansion of scale, frequent position change means that the trading price will deviate greatly from the initial target price, so the trading alpha diluted to each product will continue to decline. “
equity and hybrid financial products rely on “boil”
The bank is a financial subsidiary (hereinafter referred to as “financial subsidiary”) and is also an “equity recruit”. Since last year, many wealth management subsidiaries have issued pure equity products, and the equity of some mixed products or fixed income + products has also begun to increase slightly.
According to the data of Nanchi wealth management, as of January 12, in terms of the performance of equity public offering products of wealth management companies in recent six months, only six of the top 10 products on the list recorded positive earnings – “sunshine red ESG industry selection” fell to the fifth place on the list due to the correction of the new energy sector, and two low volatility products of Huaxia wealth management jumped to the top three on the list, The “Zhaozhuo consumption selection zhoukai No. 1” of CMB financial management ranked first on the list, with a significant lead in revenue in recent June, and the volatility and maximum pullback rate are still at the middle and upper level of the same category.
In addition, the second product of foreign financial recruits BlackRock Jianxin financial raised 404 million yuan (the raising ended on January 10), only 1 / 6 of the first product. The investment strategies of the two products are systematic stock investment strategies, similar to the enhancement of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. The first product raised 2.464 billion yuan in September last year, setting a new high for the public offering of equity products of financial companies. At that time, it was in the quantitative “honeymoon period”. In addition to the reasons for the weakening of market sentiment, there is a view that this may also be related to the investment period. The minimum holding period of the second product is set to 720 days and that of the first is 360 days.
“There was a period of great pressure, not only the performance evaluation within the Department, but also the personal finance department of the bank selling products on a commission basis will complain, because the tolerance of financial customers to fluctuations is very low.” The equity investment manager of the wealth management subsidiary of a joint-stock bank told reporters, “however, we can only be more optimistic as we fall. After the fall, we may be able to rise. Moreover, the closure period of wealth management products is long, mostly from 6 months to 1 year, and we can ‘boil’ the net value back.”
Another financial investment manager of a large state-owned bank mentioned to reporters that at present, in addition to a very few pure equity financial products, the equity proportion of fixed income + hybrid products is on average 20%, and more can reach 25%.
Gao Ting, director of Nomura Oriental International Research Department, told reporters earlier that under the influence of overseas monetary policy, it is predicted that the inflow of foreign capital will drop to 200 billion yuan in 2022. However, the allocation of A-Shares by bank financial management is expected to gradually increase with the end of the transition period of the new asset management regulations. It is expected that there will be an inflow of nearly 300 billion yuan per year in the next five years.
