Although the A-share market has continued to fluctuate and adjust since the new year, the brokerage institutions are not pessimistic about the future market. In the view of institutions, factors such as strengthening the expectation of steady growth and incremental capital inflow will have a positive impact on the stabilization and recovery of the A-share market; At present, the bottom of A-Shares is approaching, and the concerned spring market will not be absent. In terms of future allocation, in addition to paying attention to the high boom segments, the varieties of annual report performance forecast exceeding expectations and the directions of finance, infrastructure and consumption also deserve attention.
most industries fell
Since mid December 2021, A-Shares have been in a callback state as a whole, and all three major stock indexes have fallen since 2022. In terms of last week's situation, the data showed that as of the closing on January 14, the Shanghai index fell 1.63% and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.35% for the whole week. As many as 25 of the 31 Shenwan level industries fell last week. Among them, infrastructure and Baijiu were the top ones last week.
Why has the market turned downward instead of a "good start" since the beginning of the year? In this regard, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) chief strategy analyst Wang Hanfeng believes that, "There may be three reasons for the market decline: first, China's economic fundamentals have not improved significantly, and investors pay close attention to the strength and pace of policy implementation; second, the global epidemic spread has accelerated recently, there is great pressure on epidemic prevention and control in major cities in China, and investors are cautious about consumption recovery, especially during the Spring Festival; third, major global markets have fallen more since 2022 Some investors are worried that it will affect the risk appetite of a shares. "
From the performance of the market sector, since 2022, as of the closing on January 14, only a few relatively undervalued sectors such as banking, petroleum and petrochemical have risen among the 31 Shenwan industries, and the callback range of high boom tracks such as national defense and military industry and power equipment is large.
In this regard, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) chief strategic analyst Qin Peijing said that the collapse of high-level conglomerates was the main reason for the sharp fluctuation of market sentiment at the beginning of the year. However, the current market has passed the most panic point, and what is missing is the consensus in the main line direction.
Chen Xianshun, chief strategic analyst of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities, said that although the market will still face phased pressure under the convergence of negative factors, considering that the current market transaction congestion is significantly lower than that at the beginning of 2021, and the possibility of sharp decline in the market is low, on the whole, the downward trend has a bottom, which is not comparable with the market in February 2021. "Looking forward to the market situation after the Spring Festival, the negative factors with overseas liquidity risk as the core will be gradually implemented and digested. At the same time, the steady growth policy will be gradually promoted and strengthened, and the market is expected to gradually stabilize. Generally speaking, the bottom of the market is approaching, and bargain hunting can be arranged before the Spring Festival." Chen Xianshun said.
consensus on the main line of steady growth
The reporter of China Securities Journal found that for the prediction of the future trend of a shares, almost all securities companies mentioned "stable growth" and believed that this would be one of the key factors for the repair of the future market and the start of the "spring market".
Wang Hanfeng believes that at present, the policy means of stabilizing growth are still being gradually implemented. It is expected that in the future, with the introduction of details of stabilizing growth policies and the gradual stabilization of China's economic data, market sentiment is expected to be repaired. From the disk, although the sectors related to steady growth corrected last week, there may be room for performance in the follow-up. Still maintain the previous judgment that the steady growth sector market is expected to continue until the end of the first quarter.
Xun Yugen, chief strategic analyst of Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that since the central economic work conference used 25 words of "stability" to clarify the tone of economic work, it is not difficult to see that the steady growth policy is being implemented intensively. On December 20, 2021, the one-year LPR interest rate adjustment indicates that the steady growth policy is gradually strengthened. Learn from previous policy easing cycles, with the continuous increase of policies, the market will have a good performance, and the adjustment at the beginning of the year will not change the market trend in spring.
Another factor conducive to market repair comes from the liquidity level. Qin Peijing said that with the gradual formation of the follow-up consensus on the main line of stable growth, the inflow of incremental funds will significantly improve market sentiment. "Since the beginning of the year, many public offering and private placement products with good reputation have quickly reached the target of raising quota, and the subscription rate and redemption rate of stock public offering products have also remained relatively stable; the growth rate of net foreign capital inflow has slowed down month on month, but the absolute scale is not low, and there has been a significant increase in holdings in undervalued and pro cyclical financial sectors; the reform of capital market system is expected to promote overseas index companies to start the next round Further improve the inclusion of A-Shares into the factor plan, bringing significant incremental funds. " Qin Peijing said.
At present, a disturbing factor concerned by the market comes from overseas, that is, the rhythm and timeliness of the Fed's interest rate hike. In this regard, Chen Guo, chief strategist of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities, believes that investors' fear of liquidity tightening may be in a relatively stable state before the market expected Fed's interest rate hike in March.
optimistic about gaoboom track
For the future configuration, the reporter of China Securities Journal found that the investment opportunities of the high boom track are still favored by securities companies, and there is a consensus on the direction of big finance and infrastructure.
Chen Guo believes that the source of future excess return may lie in the subdivided fields where the boom continues or even further rises, as well as the incremental investment opportunities brought by the evolution of industrial trends. It is suggested to focus on military industry, photovoltaic (middle and lower reaches), new energy operation, new energy vehicles (power batteries and intelligent spare parts), semiconductor and other industries.
Xun Yugen suggested that investors allocate large finance and new and old infrastructure in a balanced manner in the first quarter. As the steady growth policy is gradually put into force, the downward pressure on the economy is relieved, the worries about real estate debt subside, and the banking and real estate sectors are expected to usher in repair. In addition, the steady growth policy is expected to directly drive the growth of new and old infrastructure investment, and is optimistic about new energy related sectors.
Chen Xianshun believes that the short-term market style will accelerate the switch to the undervalued style, and from the medium-term perspective, we should also grasp the valuation repair direction under the improvement of fundamentals. "We should grasp investment opportunities for consumption and infrastructure construction, including consumption, such as pig, household appliances, furniture, social service, tourism, Baijiu" and so on. Infrastructure is good for building materials, construction, power operation and so on. Chen Xianshun said.
Lin rongxiong, chief strategic analyst of Anxin securities, maintained the research and judgment idea of looking for elastic sector in undervalued value. Considering the continuous disclosure of the performance forecast of A-share listed companies in 2021, Lin rongxiong suggests paying short-term attention to the varieties whose annual performance forecast exceeds expectations, including chemical industry, nonferrous metals, transportation (including express delivery), building materials, electronics, securities companies and other industries.
