Viewpoint: according to PMI data for two consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still anti pumping, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. After the central bank cut the reserve requirement and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank cut the MFL and reverse repo interest rate in the beginning of the year, the monetary easing cycle gradually opened, and the market as a whole was still boosted under the expectation of abundant liquidity. in the short term, the monetary policy was released again, and the overall support and boost of the market remained. At the time of consolidation, a new configuration window was opened again.
Today, both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets opened higher. After the opening, financial stocks once rose, and the index fluctuated higher. Since then, the red market position has been repeated. In the morning, it rose again before the close, and the three indexes strengthened across the board. In the afternoon, the index remained strong, subject stocks rose sharply, and heavyweights also maintained a good trend to jointly boost the index. On the disk, the computer sector led the rise, the communication, media, electronics, automobile and other sectors strengthened, other multi sectors were red, and only a few sectors such as commercial trade fell.
Throughout the day, boosted by economic data, the market ushered in strong support. According to the Statistics Bureau, China's GDP exceeded 114 trillion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%. Under the impact of the epidemic and the drag of real estate, this data is still relatively good, and it also forms a certain positive support for the market.
In addition to economic stability, the easing of monetary policy has also boosted the market. On January 17, 2022, in order to maintain the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system, the people's Bank of China carried out RMB 700 billion medium-term loan facility (MLF) operation and RMB 100 billion open market reverse repurchase operation. The bid winning interest rate of medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and open market reverse repurchase operation decreased by 10 basis points. Here we should note that steady growth needs the support of monetary policy. After the reduction of reserve requirement and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the MLF and reverse repo interest rate were reduced by 10 basis points in the beginning of the year. The overall speed is still relatively fast and slightly higher than market expectations. The reduction of MLF and reverse repo interest rate plays a great role in maintaining the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system, and can also guide the decline of real loan interest rate, so as to reduce enterprise financing costs and stabilize market confidence. It should be pointed out that the reverse repo interest rate is the real interest rate. This decline means that the real interest rate will be reduced. For the market, liquidity is expected to be further improved, which will bring theoretical boost to the stock market!
Obviously, the economic stage bottomed out, and the monetary policy also ushered in a loose signal. Under the support and boost of the market, the logic of the overall improvement has not changed. The stock market is a barometer of money. The monetary easing policy has been started, and the release signal is also obvious. Therefore, there is no need to worry about liquidity in at least the first quarter, which will also support and boost the spring market to a certain extent. Although the adjustment since the beginning of the year has slightly exceeded expectations, it is still a good allocation opportunity under the positive trend in the medium term.
Back in the market, the rise of the three indexes throughout the day is an absolute response to the overall improvement of the economy and monetary policy, and also indicates the gradual improvement of market confidence. However, it should also be noted that the current mood is still recovering. Under the boost, the index needs to rebound quickly, otherwise it will be repeated.
On the whole, after the continuous adjustment of the three indexes, the gem bottomed out first, the Shenzhen composite index began to rise last Friday, and the Shanghai index has not hit a new low for adjustment. With the support and boost of policies, the overall market is improving, the logic remains unchanged, and it is still a good configuration window in sorting.
