Last Friday, three new shares of A-Shares were listed. Among them, there is one main board in Shanghai and Shenzhen and one scientific innovation board. It is worth noting that steway, a new stock on the science and innovation board, closed with an increase of 79.82%. This stock is not only the first new stock listed on the science and Innovation Board since May this year, but also the new stock with the largest increase on the first day of listing since May. The author believes that this is closely related to the role of the “invisible hand” of the market in IPO.
Affected by many factors, since 2022, there has been a wave of breaking tide in the new shares on the science and innovation board and gem under the registration system, and the breaking of new shares has become increasingly fierce. First, the number of new shares issued on the first day of listing is increasing. For example, in April, a total of 32 registered new shares were listed, of which 17 broke on the first day, accounting for 53%. The second is that the breaking range of new shares on the first day of listing is higher and higher. For example, Puyuan Jingdian, which was listed on April 8, fell 34.66%; Weijie Chuangxin, which was listed on the 12th of that month, set a new record with a decline of 36.04%. Third, the proportion of online issuance and abandonment of purchase has reached a new high. The abandonment of new shares is a normal phenomenon. Previously, the proportion was often about 0.5%, but since this year, the abandonment proportion has kept breaking records. For example, the abandonment proportion of Jingwei Hengrun is as high as 33.73%. Fourth, the amount of loss in the first signing began to create “history”. Previously, investors often lost thousands of Yuan due to the breaking of new shares on the first day of listing, while this year’s loss has exceeded the 10000 yuan mark. Zhongyi technology, which was listed on April 21, raised this record to nearly 20000 yuan, which also made investors really feel the pain of winning the lottery.
Since May, there have been a series of changes in new shares. From the issue rhythm, there are obvious signs of slowdown. For example, in the registration process, 37 enterprises registered successfully in March and only 13 in April. So far, there are only four in May. In the issuance and underwriting link, 43 registered companies started offering in March and only 8 companies in April. Up to now, although there are 11 in May, it is far less than that in March.
From the performance of new shares, up to now, there are 3 new shares listed and registered in May. In addition to steway, the performance of the other two gem new shares Zhongke Jiangnan and Prius was also eye-catching, with both rising nearly 60% on the first day of listing. Obviously, the first day’s increase of new shares listed under the three registration system is not common, and there is no scene of breaking the first day and winning the lot like “winning the knife” again.
From the P / E ratio of new share issuance, in addition to the three new shares listed under the registration system, the issuance price and P / E ratio of seven new shares to be listed under the registration system also show a downward trend. It has become the “main melody” that the P / E ratio of new share issuance is lower than the industry average level. In terms of issuance price, only three new shares are higher than 30 yuan, with an average issuance price of 34 yuan, but their average issuance P / E ratio is only 25 times.
Previously, under the registration system, there were obvious signs of “three high” issuance, such as high issuance price, high issuance P / E ratio and superb raising. It is not uncommon for the issue price to exceed 100 yuan and the issue P / E ratio to exceed 100 times. In particular, the issuance of new shares with a P / E ratio higher than the industry average can be found everywhere. Under the background of the market downturn and serious lack of confidence, its overvalued value is not accepted by the market. Investors choose to vote with their “feet”, which leads to the emergence of the breaking tide of new shares.
Under the registration system, new shares are issued in a market-oriented manner, and the scale, price and rhythm of new shares are determined by the market, so as to strengthen the restrictive role of the market. If the previous “three highs” issuance of new shares was the result of market choice, then since May, the slowdown of issuance rhythm, the decline of issuance price and issuance P / E ratio, and the performance after the listing of new shares are also the result of market choice.
Moreover, we must see that the changes of new shares in May are the result of the role of the “invisible hand” of the market. The issuance of “three highs” will inevitably lead to the breaking into normal, and the breaking of new shares will become more and more intense, which will force the rhythm of new share issuance to slow down, and the issuance price and P / E ratio will fall. The lower issuance price and P / E ratio have created conditions for the rise of new shares and attracted more investors to make new and speculation. With the popularity of new shares, the “three high” issuance may return to the market, thus starting a new round of circulation. Behind all this, the “invisible hand” of the market is everywhere.
Therefore, for the positive changes in new shares in May, it is necessary for the market to maintain a cautious attitude. For the new shares issued by the “three highs” and the new shares with a large increase on the first day of listing, it is best to stay away.
