On May 22 and May 23, four cities, including Harbin, Baotou, Wuhan and Jinan, released real estate regulation policies or spread real estate regulation news. According to incomplete statistics by the reporter of Securities Daily, as of May 23, more than 130 cities across the country had issued more than 200 real estate regulation policies.
Then, with the intensive introduction and continuous optimization of real estate regulation policies, how will the transaction market recover in the real estate market? What will be the development trend in the short and long term?
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, said in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily that the overall development of the real estate market is gradually improving. Combined with the central bank’s lower limit of mortgage interest rate and other policies, the data in late may may be further improved, which will help to improve the transaction data in the whole month of May.
According to the reporter of Securities Daily, the national 100 city residential transaction monitoring report (hereinafter referred to as the report) released by the think tank center of E-House Research Institute on May 23 points out that based on the real estate market data from May 1 to May 20, the total transaction volume of the whole month is calculated, and the formula is: the predicted value of transaction area in May = (the total transaction area from May 1 to May 20) / 20 31, from which we can get 100 key cities in China, The predicted value of the transaction area of newly-built commercial houses in May and compared with the corresponding month on month and year-on-year data.
According to the data of the report, in May 2022, the transaction area of newly-built commercial houses in 100 cities across the country is expected to be 19.63 million square meters, an increase of 9% month on month and a decrease of 58% year-on-year.
Yan Yuejin believes that from the above data, it can be seen that the national housing transaction data of 100 cities is generally at the bottom stage, especially compared with the monthly data since 2020, it is currently at a low level.
“Although the frequency of real estate regulation and control policies in April 2022 is also very high, there is still a relatively obvious month on month decline trend. In May, it is expected to reverse this trend and make the month on month increase have a positive performance.” Yan Yuejin said.
At the same time, when checking the report, the reporter of Securities Daily noticed that in addition to the positive growth of the month on month data, there were also positive changes in the year-on-year data. According to the data, the year-on-year increases from March to may in 2021 were 68%, 34% and 8% respectively. Although the increase was positive, the increase was rapidly decreasing. Subsequently, since June 2021, the transaction area of 100 cities in China has always maintained a year-on-year decline, and the decline has continued to expand as a whole. Until April 2022, the year-on-year decline reached the maximum, 61%, while the predicted year-on-year decline in May 2022 was 58%, indicating that the year-on-year decline is narrowing.
Yan Yuejin believes that although the year-on-year decline narrowed slightly, it can be seen that the decline is very large and the probability will not continue to expand. This is a positive and positive place.
“Although the data has improved, we should also be aware that the estimated monthly year-on-year decline from January to April and may this year is indeed large. It is expected that the year-on-year decline from January to May will be about 52%. Such data will drag down the real estate market data in the first half of the year.” Yan Yuejin said.
As for the trend of the real estate market in the second half of the year, song Hongwei, research director of Tongce Research Institute, said in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily that from the cyclical trend of the real estate market, 2022 is in a downward trend, which is exacerbated by the impact of covid-19 epidemic. According to the timeliness of policies and the change law of investment, the investment index in the second half of the year is expected to reverse in the fourth quarter, The sales situation will continue to hit the bottom. It is expected that it will be difficult to reverse the negative growth in the second half of the year, but the decline will be narrowed.
“It should be noted that although local real estate regulation policies are gradually playing a role, two core problems have not been completely solved. One is the financing problem of real estate enterprises. If this problem is not solved, real estate enterprises will continue to have a tight capital chain. The other is the lack of confidence of property buyers. Affected by multiple factors, some property buyers give up their plans to buy houses in a short time and suppress reasonable demand.” Song Hongwei said.
