Recently, local policies to stabilize the property market have been intensively introduced. According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Institute, as of May 20, more than 56 cities had issued policies to stabilize the property market in the month.
Securities Times reporter found that this round of real estate new deal presents three new features:
First, this round of new real estate policies is no longer simply to stimulate the demand for house purchase, but combined with local population policies and talent policies, hoping to achieve more with one stone, such as the latest real estate policies in Wuhan, Hangzhou, Dongguan, Luzhou, Changzhou, Shenyang and other places;
Second, this round of house purchase policies is no longer relatively unified across the country, but all localities have more autonomy. They all take flexible and diverse measures to stabilize the real estate market according to their own conditions, such as Changsha, Hangzhou, Shenyang, Dezhou, Rizhao, Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) , Huizhou, etc;
Third, the regulation of first tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen and a small number of key second tier cities in China has not been significantly relaxed. The third and fourth tier cities have the greatest relaxation, and the gap between house purchase policies in different cities has widened.
Many experts and insiders interviewed by reporters said that the biggest problem in the current real estate market is the lack of social confidence. The current policy adjustment is still not a major positive, but only a partial adjustment. It is difficult to have a large-scale boost effect on the market in the short term, but on the whole, the real estate market has begun to bottom up.
combined with population and talent policy
the property market policy combined with population policy, talent policy and other policies is a new feature of this new political tide of stabilizing the property market and a new trend in the future
On May 14, Dongguan Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development issued a new deal on the real estate market in the early morning, pointing out that commercial banks should implement differentiated housing credit policies and reasonably determine the down payment ratio and loan interest rate of commercial individual housing loans. In addition, resident families who have two or three children in line with the national fertility policy are allowed to buy a new set of commercial housing.
Coincidentally, the latest housing purchase policy in Nanjing also points out that families with two or more children can buy a new set of commercial housing while enjoying the most favorable loan interest rate of relevant banks. Hangzhou's new deal makes it clear that eligible three child families will give priority to "non housing families" when signing up for the public lottery sales of new commercial housing.
There are many cases similar to the combination of the new deal of the real estate market and other policies. The conditions for the relaxation of purchase restrictions in Shenyang's latest house purchase policy are inclined to families with two or more children and young talents Shenyang has made it clear that for households with two or three children under the age of 18, if they already own two sets of houses in the administrative area of Shenyang, they can buy another set of new commercial houses in the purchase restriction area of Shenyang Shenyang also stipulates that the loan limit can be relaxed to 1.3 times of the maximum loan amount of the current period for families with two or three children under the age of 18 who have paid in the housing provident fund and use the housing provident fund loan to buy their own houses.
In addition, for young talents, Shenyang has once again expanded the scope and strength of provident fund loan support. For full-time college graduates with bachelor degree or above who have been employed in Shenyang within five years, the provident fund loan limit can be relaxed to 1.2 times the maximum loan limit of the current period.
On May 19, Luzhou, Sichuan Province also made it clear that active servicemen, retired servicemen, people with registered residence in rural areas of Luzhou City, people without registered residence in Luzhou City, University (including junior college and undergraduate) graduates who have graduated less than five years, and families with two or three children will be given a one-time subsidy of 2% of the total purchase price for new houses.
In addition, Wuhu, Anhui Province will give a house purchase subsidy of up to 200000 yuan to qualified young talents, while Rizhao, Shandong Province will give a house purchase subsidy of up to 100000 yuan to young talents. At the same time, the maximum amount of house purchase with the first provident fund loan will be increased to 1 million yuan.
The relevant situation has become a trend. According to incomplete statistics, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Wuxi, Dongguan, Leshan, Mianyang, Dazhou, Suzhou, Luzhou and other cities have introduced new house purchase policies for families with many children. The policies include issuing house purchase subsidies, increasing the amount of provident fund loans and relaxing the purchase restriction policies. In addition, Changzhou, Wuhu, Shenyang, Hebi, Rizhao, Yangzhou The latest house purchase policies issued by Luzhou and other cities have given preference to the loan and sales restriction conditions for young talents.
Zhang Lei, a postdoctoral researcher at Peking University, told the securities times that China will enter an aging society with fewer children. The decreasing newborn population and the increasing elderly population are China's population trend in the future. The policy experience of Japan and other developed countries shows that no single policy measure can play a decisive role in improving the fertility rate. Only the establishment covers marriage and love, childbirth, education, housing, pension A package of family support plans in social security and other aspects, and optimizing the supply of public services and the allocation of public resources, can comprehensively ensure family development and enhance family fertility willingness, which is the reason for the combination of this round of new policies for multi place house purchase with policies such as talent and population.
Yue Xiangyu, deputy director of Ping An real estate market research, also told reporters that taking many children as the prerequisite for easing restrictions actually narrowed the scope of policy application and reduced the intensity of easing, mainly because some regions hope to gradually increase the size through tentative easing to avoid the rapid rise of the market caused by the too fast pace of relaxation, which is more abundant in forms than the previous easing policies.
Many experts said that the combination with population and talent policies is gradually becoming a new trend in the optimization of a new round of real estate policies. The house purchase support policy for multi child families can not only promote the release of reasonable house purchase demand, but also encourage fertility and promote population growth to a certain extent. The combination with talent policies is conducive to attracting talent employment everywhere. It is expected that more cities will follow up in the future.
various forms of urban implementation
More flexible, diversified and localized house purchase policies are also a major feature of this round of municipal policy tide of stabilizing buildings. Among the policies issued in this round, all localities have flexibly adopted one or more measures according to their own conditions, such as adjusting the provident fund, optimizing loan restrictions, reducing the proportion of down payment, implementing deed tax concessions, reducing the number of years of sales restrictions, giving house purchase subsidies, revitalizing the rental market and so on, so as to adjust the house purchase policy of their cities.
Changsha is regarded as a more eye-catching city in the new political tide of stabilizing the property market its latest house purchase policy makes it clear that houses that have achieved online signature filing and delivery or have handled real estate registration will not be included in the calculation of family housing sets after being revitalized for rental housing in this regard, some voices believe that the Changsha new deal is equivalent to issuing a free "room ticket" to the vast majority of improved families with strong replacement demand.
However, the official reply of Changsha housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau said that the policy is still limited. For example, the owners need to sign the cooperation agreement on revitalizing the stock houses in Changsha for rental housing with the pilot enterprises, and the operation life of the stock houses for rental housing shall not be less than 10 years. At the same time, at present, when the qualification examination is conducted, one or more houses are revitalized as a unit for leasing, Temporarily reduce the total number of family houses according to the principle of "one set for each household", that is, for families with multiple sets of houses for rent, only one set shall be reduced in the calculation of the number of family houses.
A number of hot cities such as Tianjin, Dongguan, Huizhou, Foshan, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Wuhan and Jinan have also launched "optional actions" according to their own conditions.
Tianjin raised the maximum amount of provident fund loans for the purchase of a family's first house from Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) yuan to 800000 yuan; Dongguan adjusted the VAT exemption period for individual housing transfer from 5 years to 2 years, and commercial housing can be transferred if it has obtained the real estate property right certificate for more than 2 years; Huizhou cancels the purchase restrictions in Huiyang District and Daya Bay district; The number of second-hand houses in Foshan for five years does not account for the purchase quota, and there is no restriction on the purchase of transactions; Hangzhou's new policy stipulates that the social security requirement for buying second-hand houses within the scope of purchase restriction will be cancelled after settling down for less than 5 years, and non registered residence families can purchase houses after paying social security or individual income tax for 12 months, reducing the threshold of purchase restriction for second-hand houses; The three-year restriction on the sale of first-hand houses in Suzhou was adjusted to two years, and the restriction on the sale of second-hand houses was completely abolished.
Some cities have launched a combination of measures to stimulate house purchase, such as the latest stable property market policy in Luzhou, Sichuan, which involves many aspects, such as giving house purchase subsidies, optimizing land transfer conditions, adjusting and implementing tax policies, implementing differentiated housing credit policies, canceling mortgage loan deposits, optimizing the online signing and filing of second-hand houses, tax handling, transfer registration and so on
Changzhou, Jiangsu Province and Shenyang, Liaoning Province also have sincere policies to stabilize the real estate market. Changzhou adjusted the sales restriction time from four years after obtaining the real estate certificate to two years. At the same time, it reduced the down payment ratio of the second housing provident fund loan from 50% to 30%, and increased the maximum loan amount of the provident fund from 300000 to Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) , and the family from 900000. In addition, Changzhou has also increased its support for high-end talents such as Changzhou doctors and masters under the age of 35.
The new policies for stabilizing the property market in other cities are also rich and diverse. Luoyang, Shangrao, Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) , Meizhou and other cities have reduced the down payment ratio to 20%, and Zhuzhou, Nanyang, Huangshi, Yueyang, Hebi and other cities have either deed tax concessions or house purchase subsidies; Wuxi adjusted the exemption period of value-added tax on individual housing transfer from 5 years to 2 years.
large difference in loosening scale
So far, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other first tier cities in China have no other significant policies to stabilize the property market except the national interest rate reduction policy. The new policy of canceling the purchase restriction of second-hand houses in Nanjing was urgently deleted within three hours after the official announcement. Previously, the "relay loan" launched by a bank in Guangzhou in April this year was also stopped on the same day. It shows that in terms of deregulation of the property market, key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have not been significantly relaxed.
According to the analysis of China Index Research Institute, from the policy focus of each line of cities, the first tier cities fine tune their policies in terms of house purchase subsidies and settlement / talent introduction, the second tier cities pay more attention to optimizing purchase restrictions, adjusting provident fund, issuing house purchase subsidies and settlement / talent introduction, and the adjustment policies of the third and fourth tier cities focus more on issuing house purchase subsidies, housing support for multi child families and settlement / talent introduction, Weak third and fourth tier cities have relaxed the loan policy to the lowest level specified by the national policy, which is the strongest in this round of policy tide in terms of stimulating house purchase and consumption.
China Index Research Institute believes that in the short term, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will set the tone of the real estate market to "support all localities to improve real estate policies based on local conditions". The pace of implementation of urban policies is expected to be further accelerated and the intensity may continue to increase. It is expected that the policies of first tier cities will continue to focus on fine-tuning and take talent introduction or relief as a breakthrough to repair market confidence. The policies of other cities are expected to continue to increase, including loan restriction There are optimization expectations for restrictive policies such as sales restrictions.
On April 18, the people's Bank of China and the State Administration of foreign exchange issued 23 measures to clarify the real estate setting tone of "stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations".
On April 29, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee stressed the need to adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living rather than speculation, support all localities to improve real estate policies based on local conditions, support rigid and improved housing demand, optimize the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
It is understood that this is a meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee that has paid special attention to the real estate industry for many years. It can be seen that the situation of the real estate market is grim. The central government supports all localities to improve real estate policies based on local conditions, which shows the central government's support attitude towards improving real estate policies due to urban policies, and releases a more positive and clear signal.
From the data, China's real estate industry is indeed not optimistic in the first quarter of this year. In the first quarter of this year, the national real estate development investment increased by 0.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate further declined. The sales area of commercial housing decreased by 13.8% year-on-year, and the sales decreased by 22.7% year-on-year. In March, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 key monitoring cities increased by 48% month on month, with a year-on-year decrease of 47%. The overall performance scale of the top 100 real estate enterprises also decreased significantly by 47% year-on-year.
lack of confidence is the biggest problem
Zhang Lei told the securities times that under the impact of the new round of the epidemic this year, the real estate market accelerated its downward trend. In April, the year-on-year growth rate of major data such as real estate investment, sales, new construction and construction continued to be negative, and the decline continued to expand, making it even more difficult for the real estate industry to stabilize. At present, lack of confidence is the biggest problem for real estate. The key to changing the downward trend of real estate is to reverse the expectations of society, especially residents, for the real estate industry. The current policy adjustment is still not a major positive, but a partial adjustment, which is difficult to have a large-scale boost effect on the whole market in the short term.
Yue Xiangyu told the securities times that before the current round of the epidemic, the macro-economy and real estate sales were in a downward trend. Under the covid-19 epidemic, it was difficult for residents in some areas to go out, so it was impossible to see and buy houses, which accelerated the bottom of the real estate market. Under normal circumstances, whether the real estate regulation policy is loose or tightened, even if it is effective, it must have a certain lag. Under the influence of the epidemic, the effects of various policies will be further delayed, at least until the end of the closure and control. In addition, when the tone of "housing, housing and non speculation" remains unchanged, local governments will try their best to stabilize the trend of house prices and avoid sharp rise and fall, and residents' house purchase will be more rational. Therefore, although the certainty of market recovery is high, the pace will not be too fast.
An Guangyong, an expert of the credit management committee of the all China Federation of mergers and acquisitions trade union, also told reporters that at present, the whole real estate industry is in a serious decline period. The repeated covid-19 epidemic since the beginning of this year has made the industry worse. It is expected that the effect of the current intensive real estate policy is limited.
Wu Zhongyan, an insider in the financial system, said that the real estate industry has a long chain and strong driving effect. This round of stable real estate market policy has practical significance and positive effect on new citizens and young college students to live and work in peace and contentment and take root in one place. It is also conducive to real estate enterprises to speed up the clearing of existing new houses and the return of funds of real estate enterprises.
Judging from the trend of home buyers around the country, this round of stable property market policy has stimulated the purchase demand of consumers to a certain extent.
According to media reports, institutional data show that the average daily listing volume of second-hand houses in Hangzhou two days after the new deal is nearly seven times the average daily net listing volume in the past month before the new deal. A number of real estate agents interviewed said that from the 17th, the consultation volume of second-hand houses has increased significantly. Out of optimism about the market prospect, individual owners in Hangzhou raised the listing price, and some owners raised 800000 yuan at one time. But for the owners who have raised prices sharply, the broker's bluntly is a little outrageous. Real estate agents from Shenzhen, Tianjin and Suzhou also said that recently, more people are looking at houses.
58 Zhang Bo, President of the branch of anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, analyzed that the overall situation of the real estate market in April has not shown a comprehensive recovery trend, downward pressure on house prices in some cities still exists, and market confidence is in the bottom recovery stage.
In addition, from the national point of view, the easing of the property market policy is becoming stronger and stronger. On May 20, less than a week after the lower limit of the interest rate of the first personal housing commercial loan was lowered by 20 basis points on May 15, the central bank announced the new LPR interest rate, and the LPR over 5 years closely related to personal housing mortgage loans was lowered by 15 basis points to 4.45%. This means that the space for the reduction of mortgage interest rate will be further opened, with a minimum of 4.25%.
According to the mainstream mortgage interest rate data of key cities released by the shell Research Institute, the interest rate of the first set of mainstream mortgage in 103 key cities monitored by the shell Research Institute in May 2022 was 4.91%, and the interest rate of the second set was 5.32%, down 26 and 13 basis points respectively from the previous month, a new low since 2019.
