Soda ash supply side: the withdrawal of Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) 13 million tons of production capacity at the end of 2021 has a great impact on the soda ash market supply side. In 2022, the effective new production capacity is only 200000 tons in hongsifang of Anhui Zhongyan and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons in Debang chemical of Jiangsu. Affected by the epidemic, it is likely that it will not be put into operation until the end of the year. The annual effective production capacity is expected to be 31.61 million tons. In the first half of 2023, the production capacity of Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) 34 million tons will be put into operation successively, which will alleviate the tension on the supply side.
Demand side of soda ash: the apparent consumption of soda ash is expected to increase by 3.5% year-on-year in 2022, and 3.4%, 4.2% and 4.8% year-on-year from 2023 to 2025 respectively.
Flat glass: about 75% of the demand for flat glass comes from the construction industry, which is closely related to the completion of real estate. In the case of multi-point outbreak of the national epidemic, the commencement of the real estate industry in various regions has been affected, and all localities have actively introduced relevant policies to promote the development of the real estate industry. It is estimated that the growth rate of flat glass corresponding to soda ash demand will be 0% from 2022 to 2023 and 2% from 2024 to 2025.
Photovoltaic glass: driven by favorable factors such as the continuous decline of photovoltaic power generation costs and the recovery of global green energy, the new installed capacity of global photovoltaic will continue to grow rapidly in the next few years. According to the prediction of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, under optimistic circumstances, the annual new installed capacity of global photovoltaic will reach 330gw in 2025 The median value of the predicted data of China photovoltaic industry association is taken as the predicted value of the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity, that is, the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity from 2022 to 2025 is 217.5gw, 247.5gw, 272.5gw and 300gw respectively, and the corresponding demand growth rate of soda ash is 314, 362, 403 and 4470000 tons respectively.
Lithium carbonate: as the penetration rate of new energy vehicles increases, the demand for lithium carbonate will grow rapidly. According to Gaogong lithium battery, the compound growth rate of China's lithium battery shipments in the next four years will exceed 43%. It is estimated that the corresponding soda ash demand of lithium carbonate from 2022 to 2025 will be 670000 tons, 970000 tons, 1410000 tons and 2040000 tons respectively.
Other light soda ash: the downstream of light soda ash is mostly concentrated in the field of daily necessities. With the relaxation of epidemic control and the recovery of demand, the demand for other light soda ash is expected to grow slowly by 1.5% from 2022 to 2025.
It is estimated that in 2022, under the dual effects of supply and demand, the gap between supply and demand will continue, the annual operating rate is expected to reach 96%, and the price of soda ash is expected to remain at a high level. After Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) 34 million tons of soda ash were put into operation in 2023, the contradiction between supply and demand was alleviated, and the annual operating rate is expected to be 87%. Under the tight supply and demand situation, the price of soda ash is expected to remain high, and the soda ash industry is recommended.
Beneficiary target: considering that the price of soda ash remains high, the profitability of soda ash production enterprises is expected to be enhanced, and they are optimistic about soda ash production enterprises such as Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) , Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) , Cnsig Inner Mongolia Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(600328) .
Risk tips: price fluctuation risk, the production progress of photovoltaic glass is less than expected, the completed area of real estate decreases sharply, the rebound of the epidemic has an impact on demand, the price fluctuation risk of raw materials, and the risk of focusing on the company's performance less than expected;
