view: after the economic recovery caused by the epidemic, multi-party data also show that the economic bottom is still repeated, and there is no obvious sign of stabilization at present. The pressure of economic growth still inhibits the market. With the support of policy support and monetary easing cycle, the market as a whole is still a process of shock bottoming in the short term, after the continuous rebound of the index, the energy shrinks, domestic and foreign troubles are still worried. With the sudden attack of monkeypox virus, the overall risk appetite of the market is suppressed again. We still need to pay attention to the possible rise and fall of the index and the possibility of repetition
Last week, with the continuous increase of policies, market confidence and sentiment gradually rebounded, and the oversold rebound also continued. When the LPR was lowered more than expected, the market enthusiasm was improved again, and the index jumped up and stood at the integer level of 3100 points. However, above 3100, the market still shows signs that the rebound may be repeated. Yes, it is worried about the market after a continuous rebound. On the one hand, the index rebounded to a new high, but the trading volume was relatively low, and the transactions between the two cities still failed to exceed trillion; On the other hand, the general rise pattern is missing. Even the sharp rise in the second half of last week, in fact, the sectors are slightly divided, and the scene is more about the heavyweight's lifting of the index; Thus, although the index is relatively strong, the trend of in-depth development will still reduce expectations.
In addition, after the previous heavyweights took the lead, the recent performance of track stocks was eye-catching. Although this performance was relatively normal in the rebound process, according to the stage rebound in the downward trend of the market, this round of rebound has approached the stage high technically, and most track stocks deviated from their original undervalued range again. At this time, there are still multiple repressions in the market, or caused the repetition of the index.
What's more, monkeypox virus has swept the world when covid-19 virus has not been eliminated. According to the World Health Organization, as of May 21, 92 confirmed cases and 28 suspected cases of monkeypox had been reported in 12 non monkeypox endemic countries. At the same time, the WHO warned that monkeypox virus has been secretly transmitted in the community, and the number of infections may further increase in the future.
It should be said that from the existing data and historical data, monkeypox virus seems to have little impact on humans, but from the current situation, the biggest uncertainty is the transmission of monkeypox, especially interpersonal transmission. If it spreads, it will be a blow to confidence in the fight against the epidemic all over the world. After all, covid-19 virus has not dispersed and monkeypox virus has invaded again, which is really bad. However, it seems that the infectivity and influence range of monkeypox virus are relatively small, and the power of the virus is not large, and its influence is far less than covid-19 virus. In this regard, whether it is the impact on society or the suppression of the A-share market, it may not be too great. If the transmission of the virus is not strong, the speculation of monkeypox virus concept stocks in the market may be far less than the performance of covid-19 virus concept.
Of course, we say that these are not the core factors affecting the final trend of the market. After all, at the end of the market decline, internal factors are the most core factors. The current policy bottom has appeared, the secondary policy is also increasing, and the market sentiment and confidence are picking up, so there is still a rebound. However, under the downward trend and pressure of the economy, the current reversal or the real market bottom, or there are still repetitions, which needs to be verified by time.
To sum up: under the policy overweight, the market risk appetite has rebounded, and individual stock game opportunities are frequent. However, due to domestic and foreign troubles and the suppression of various parties, the market may still be repeated. It is not pessimistic about the current market, but it is also not optimistic. However, the current A-share valuation has the value and significance of medium-term allocation under the historical low. For midline investors, we continue to recommend bargain hunting for strategic allocation, while for steady and band investors, individual stock game can be appropriate before the bottom is clear, but it is not recommended to catch up and participate in heavy positions at will.
