This week's topic
Home furnishing: in April, the home furnishing community fell by 14% year-on-year, and the decline was 8.8% year-on-year compared with that in March. Among them, it was mainly related to the epidemic and second-hand housing transactions. The residential sales area decreased by 42.4% in April (23.2% in March). The data pressure in April is expected, and home stocks have callback in the early stage, which has fully reflected the short-term pressure. What is more noteworthy is that the order receiving data of the leader in April continued to be significantly better than social zero, which is the core of our firm optimistic about the long-term value of the leader. Take oupai, gujia and other companies as an example. The retail business performance in April was better than social zero. The excess growth point behind it was the increase in the share of customers + the increase in customer unit price. Under the same environment, the gap between enterprises in long-term operation will widen.
Cultural and office supplies: the retail sales in April alone decreased by 4.8% (increased by 9.8% in March alone). Under the influence of the epidemic, the retail of stationery is under pressure, and the centralized purchase of office supplies may continue to grow well. Chenguang's factories and logistics centers are located in and around Shanghai, which is greatly affected by the epidemic in the short term. The epidemic situation in Shanghai is at the key stage of "dynamic zeroing" in the social aspect. If the inflection point is ushered in as scheduled, it will accelerate the resumption of work and production of local enterprises in Shanghai. Chenguang's business inflection point is expected. The impact of "double reduction" and "epidemic" on stationery retail industry is expected to bottom in H1. Chenguang's steady growth logic throughout the year and subsequent years has configuration value. In the medium and long term, with product upgrading and category extension, Chenguang's stationery business can grow steadily; Office centralized procurement benefits from the catalysis of sunshine procurement policy. The penetration rate of China's centralized procurement is continuously improving. It is optimistic about the leaders, such as kelip. With perfect product supply and integrated service capacity, it accelerates the acquisition of market share and continuously improves the net interest rate.
Tobacco products: the retail sales of tobacco and alcohol products decreased by 7% in April alone (increased by 7.2% in March alone). Under the influence of the epidemic, terminal consumption is under pressure. Traditional tobacco: the structural upgrading of cigarettes is expected to be a long-term trend, which will stimulate the demand for high-end cigarette labels. Cigarette label leaders with strong R & D ability and profound technology are expected to benefit. New type of tobacco: at present, the process of China's policy implementation is an important catalyst for the sector market. The issuance of Chinese licenses is imminent, and the clearance of backward production capacity is expected to accelerate. According to the plan of the General Administration of tobacco, it is expected that the measures for the administration of e-cigarettes will be implemented on May 1, the application for the release of production licenses on May 5, the application for the release of offline licenses on June 1, the e-cigarette trading platform will be launched on June 15, and the new national standard will be officially implemented on October 1. At the current time point, the letter of intent for production license application of e-cigarette enterprises has been submitted, and the license will be issued after China Tobacco reviews its products and factory verification. After October 1, China will ban the sales of non tobacco flavored e-cigarettes. At the same time, it will carry out partial planning control in the supply chain and channels. It is expected that the sales will be under pressure at different stages. However, with the gradual rationalization of e-cigarette supervision and tax policies, China will continue to be optimistic about the medium and long-term growth of e-cigarettes. In addition, focus on the overseas market. On the one hand, the normal export of OEM enterprises will be further simplified on the premise of complying with the laws of the host country; On the other hand, the policy may force Chinese e-cigarette brands to speed up going to sea, relying on the advantages of China's supply chain or making some progress.
This week's view
The leading valuation of light industry sector is at a historical low, and the fundamentals of many subdivided industries are expected to be repaired: 1. Home: the order receiving data of leading enterprises in April is still significantly better than social zero, which is the core of our firm optimistic about the long-term value of leading enterprises; Secondly, the impact of the epidemic on short-term demand is expected to be replenished quickly in the follow-up, so it is only the backward shift of the confirmation time point of potential demand and will not affect the judgment of average annual growth rate.
2. Stationery: the epidemic situation in Shanghai is at the critical stage of "dynamic clearing" in the social aspect. If the inflection point is ushered in as scheduled, it will accelerate the resumption of work and production of local enterprises in Shanghai, such as the operation inflection point of Chenguang Co., Ltd. 3. New type tobacco: at present, the implementation process of China's policies is an important catalyst for the sector market. Recently, China's e-cigarette enterprise licenses in all links have entered the landing period, so we can pay attention to industrial chain companies. 4. Papermaking: at present, the prosperity of pulp industry remains high, and the leading performance of balanced categories is expected to improve month on month; Since 2021q4, the pulp price has continued to rise, and the outer disk coniferous / broad-leaved pulp has increased by 42% / 48% respectively; The price per ton of dissolved pulp rose by 2000 yuan (+ 30%) compared with that at the beginning of the year; At present, the profit of finished paper is maintained driven by export. 5. If the price of raw materials is at the bottom of the previous period, it will be more flexible. If the price of raw materials is at the bottom of the current period, it will also lead to the decline of relevant industries, such as the recovery of raw materials.
Risk tips
1. The price of raw materials continues to rise sharply; 2. The recovery of the epidemic was lower than expected.
