Public funds: the new “freezing point” has arrived. In April, 16.9 billion shares of public offering partial equity funds were newly established, and 8.1 billion shares of public offering partial equity funds have been newly established since May. Under the background of market correction, new public offering continued to decline. Compared with the lowest monthly new issuance level of 6.21 billion in July and August in 2018, and considering the rapid development of the public offering market in recent years, the current monthly new issuance level of only 10 billion may have reached the real freezing point.
Private equity funds: the number of new issues has declined rapidly, and the long stock position has “closed” to the level of 18q3. 1) As of March, the scale of private equity funds had reached 6.35 trillion yuan, with a month on month change of 4.4 billion yuan in March. From the perspective of the new issuance of stock products, more than 3000 have been issued since December last year, and the monthly issuance has been halved so far.
2) the long strategic product position of private equity has been fully “closed” to the level of 18q3. As of the end of April, the position level was 56.51%. Compared with the decline in the position of public funds, the “closing fist” has been relatively sufficient, close to the level of the third quarter of 2018, while the position level at the end of 18 was the lowest to 51.19%.
Northbound capital: marginal balance. 1) Since the end of March, the net northward flow has shifted to marginal balance, and the key variable in the follow-up is the trend of the long-term interest rate of the United States; 2) Since the second quarter, the North net inflow of power equipment, public utilities and banks has ranked the top three, the return of household appliances, basic chemicals, food and beverage, the continuous outflow of medicine and steel, and the net outflow of nonferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery.
Two financing funds: fully release the pressure of leveraged funds. 1) The proportion of the balance of the two financial institutions in the current market value has continued to fall from the high point of 2.69% in 2021 to the current value of 2.38% in May, reaching the level in the middle of 2020; 2) In April, the net outflow of Liangrong was – 143.2 billion yuan, the largest single month net outflow since January 2016. At the same time, the proportion of two financial transactions in the turnover of A-Shares bottomed out and leveled off.
Insurance funds: equity positions fell to a low level in March. 1) The equity position of insurance funds decreased to 12.13% in March, compared with the low position of 12.09% in 2021 and the low position of 11.71% at the end of 2018. The current position is at a low level; 2) Excluding the rise and fall of industries, the top five industries added by insurance company 22q1 are real estate, electronics, coal, power equipment and basic chemical industry.
Bank financial management: the proportion of new products with stocks in basic assets increased rapidly. 1) 22q1 bank financial management survival scale shrunk slightly to 28.37 trillion; 2) In terms of financial issuance structure, after the formal implementation of the new regulations on asset management, the proportion of financial products with underlying assets including stocks has rapidly increased to more than 10%. In the past, the proportion of products containing stocks in the basic assets of financial management has always fluctuated in the range of 2% ~ 4%. However, in the 21 years before the implementation of the new regulations on asset management, the proportion has slightly increased, exceeding 4%. After the formal implementation of the new regulations in 22 years, the proportion has accelerated, rising to more than 10% in April and reaching 12.35% in May. It can be seen that the additional allocation of financial products to stock assets is in progress.
Industrial capital: the reduction scale has been significantly reduced to the level of 18 years. 1) After a sharp correction in the market, the scale of reduction of industrial capital rapidly decreased to less than 20 billion in April 2022, driving the rapid reduction of the scale of net reduction; 2) Since the second quarter, the net increase of petroleum and petrochemical, transportation and public utilities has taken the lead. The net decrease of beauty care, real estate, medicine and biology, basic chemical industry and power equipment is large, and the decrease of electronic reduction is the most significant.
Risk tip: there is a lag in public data, unexpected changes in capital market policies, and unexpected deterioration in the international situation.
