Key investment points:
Guide: This paper has compiled two types of high-frequency indicators to monitor economic vitality, track the resumption of work and production, and strengthen the grasp of the trend of Pringle cycle synchronization indicators: one is the industrial production tengluo index, and the other is the weighted congestion delay index and year-on-year diffusion index of major industrial cities based on Gaode congestion delay index. These three indicators show that the industrial production since May has been significantly repaired compared with April, which is in line with the economic bottom we found in May and the excessive judgment of the Pringle cycle from stage 1 to stage 2.
With the resumption of work and production, the role of high-frequency monitoring of economic synchronization indicators is prominent. The epidemic is the biggest exogenous variable this year, and the economy shows high volatility. At present, the dawn of epidemic prevention and control has come. The market has begun to focus on the speed and height of economic recovery, and the importance of economic synchronization indicators has become prominent. In addition, in the difficulties and application of Pringle configuration framework, we pointed out that we need to have a more accurate grasp of the trend of synchronization indicators in order to improve the winning rate of the whole strategy. Therefore, we look for high-frequency economic indicators to build an index and re characterize the Pringle cycle synchronization index.
The industrial production tengluo index is composed of capacity utilization indicators of seven midstream industries. 1) The reason why we mainly observe the midstream industry is that on the one hand, it can directly respond to the demand expansion of downstream industries. On the other hand, theoretically, the gross profit margin of midstream industry is more stable than that of upstream industries, and it is more affected by volume. 2) Capacity utilization is adopted because the changes of output and capacity utilization are often in the same direction. The output data is usually monthly frequency, and the capacity utilization has higher weekly or even daily indicators. For the consistency of data, we mainly select the capacity utilization index of representative midstream industries, including the operating rate of PTA, ground refining, methanol, all steel tire, blast furnace, coking and mill operation rate.
The falling index of industrial production has certain reference significance for indicating economic vitality. We score according to the changes of these seven indicators on a weekly basis. The base period is February 2, 2014 (the first day after the Spring Festival), and the base number is recorded as 100. Each period is summed according to the data in the current scoring table and then accumulated to obtain the industrial production decline index.
Comparing it with industrial added value and PMI, we can find that in the upward stage of the economic cycle, the tengluo index tends to rise synchronously, and in the downward stage of the economic cycle, the tengluo index will also follow the downward trend. Moreover, it has certain leadership.
Build the weighted congestion delay index and year-on-year diffusion index of major industrial cities. Transportation is the blood vessel of economy and the synchronous indicator of economic prosperity. Under the background of increasing epidemic frequency, logistics tends to be delayed, which will affect production. Therefore, it is effective to observe the economic vitality through the indicators of the transportation industry. The congestion delay index of Gaode map shows that the congestion delay index tends to weaken significantly in cities with epidemic. Therefore, we have compiled two new indexes based on the congestion delay index. One is to compile the weighted congestion delay index of major industrial cities with the GDP secondary production of 60 cities as the weight. The other is to compile the year-on-year diffusion index of these 60 cities, which aims to show the number of more congested cities at the same time, and then judge the economic situation according to the trend. As of May, the weighted value of industrial congestion has slowed down, but the impact on the city's economic congestion index has gradually slowed down, which is close to the latest value of - 50% year-on-year in May, and our response to the industrial congestion index has gradually slowed down.
Risk tips: data release delay, data disclosure suspension, data caliber change and other issues.
