Market overview and views this week
The EU launched the REpower EU plan to accelerate the replacement of fossil energy by renewable energy. In order to end dependence on Russian fossil energy and cope with the climate crisis, the European Commission launched the REpower EU plan this week The plan realizes the transformation of energy structure through energy conservation, diversified supply, accelerating the development of renewable energy, reducing fossil energy consumption in industry and transportation, and wise investment. We believe that the European region needs to increase investment in LNG terminals, ships and other LNG related fields to increase the source of natural gas imports. In addition, the development of wind, light, hydrogen and other clean and renewable energy in Europe will accelerate.
According to the plan, the cumulative installed capacity of EU PV will reach 320gw in 2025, double that in 2020 and 600gw in 2030 According to this goal, it is estimated that the average annual new installed capacity will reach 45gw in 10 years.
Natural gas sector: in the off-season, the tension between supply and demand is eased, and there is regional differentiation in the rise and fall of global gas prices. Us natural gas prices fluctuated at a high level, Henry hub natural gas prices fell after reaching a new high, and the long-term supply pattern of us natural gas was tight. The benchmark natural gas price of TTF in the Netherlands decreased, while the natural gas price of NBP in the UK increased, and the natural gas price in Europe differentiated. At present, the supply and demand structure of natural gas in Europe is relatively stable. After entering the off-season, the overall demand in Europe is weak, while the supply increases year-on-year. Europe further improves the level of natural gas inventory. The performance of Asian natural gas market is relatively flat. The price of natural gas in Northeast Asia and the national ex factory price of LNG in China fell slightly. It is expected that the price will continue to decline after entering the off-season.
Photovoltaic sector: in April, the module export was 11.99gw, a year-on-year increase of 59%. The General Administration of Customs disclosed the export data of components in April. From January to April, the cumulative export was 51.42gw, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 79.33%; In April, the average unit price of component exports was US $0.271/w, an increase of US $0.03/w over the same period last year. It is expected that the demand in overseas markets, especially in Europe, will continue to exceed expectations. China's component prices are high, the game between component end and terminal reappears, and Distributed installation supports demand. The overall prosperity of the industry is high. This week, the price of the industrial chain remained high and focused on the rhythm of the release of new capacity of silicon materials. It is expected that the supply of silicon materials (including imports) will increase by about 7% month on month in June, and the high price of silicon materials is still supported. This week, the EU disclosed the details of the REpower EU energy transformation plan, proposing that 320gw of photovoltaic capacity will be added in 2025 and 600gw will be connected to the grid in 2030.
Investment analysis opinions
Natural gas focuses on the steady growth of gas sales and the outbreak of retail natural gas business. With the superposition of Xintian green energy with improved wind conditions, it is expected to achieve a profit rebound in the second quarter.
Photovoltaic focuses on three main lines: 1) integrated module enterprises with both volume and price rising and expected profit improvement in the second quarter; 2) Inverter enterprises with excellent cost control and benefiting from the high increase of household installed capacity; 3) Although enterprises at the high point of the profit cycle and expected to benefit from new technology dividends in the future, GCL technology.
Risk tips
International natural gas supply is less than expected; The impact of international trade policy; The demand for terminal installation is less than expected.
