Industry core view
Last week, the electronic index (Shenwan level) rose by 4.38%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.15 percentage points. From the perspective of sub industries, among the secondary sub industries, semiconductors increased the most, with an increase of 5.20%.
Among the tertiary industries, the largest increase was semiconductor equipment, with an increase of 6.90%. In last week's industry dynamics, omdia predicted that the growth rate of global panel shipment area will drop to 3% in 2022, and the total output value of panel will decline by 15% under the impact of panel price decline, mainly due to the weak downstream demand of panel and the overall oversupply. In terms of consumer electronics, the latest report of counterpoint shows that China's medium and high-end mobile phone market has increased by 10% in Q1 in 22 years, accounting for 25.5% of the total sales, and has maintained rapid growth in the past two years. This is mainly due to the improvement of people's living standards and the improvement of middle and high-end consumers' requirements for mobile phone display effect and use performance. There is more room for the development of middle and high-end mobile phone market. Investors are advised to pay attention to the important boom tracks of the electronic industry and recommend landscape segmentation fields such as power semiconductors, storage and industrial control chips.
Key investment points:
The price of display panels has fallen, and the overall supply of the industry has exceeded demand: according to Taiwan's "business times", Xie qinyi, director of omdia display research, said that the growth rate of global panel shipment area is expected to decline to 3% in 2022. Under the impact of the decline in panel prices, the global panel output value will decline by 15% in 22 years, which is also the first negative growth in recent years. With the advent of the peak season, the panel price may stabilize in Q3 of 22, but the price trend is still uncertain. Since 2020, the epidemic has triggered an increase in the demand for telecommuting and home-based teaching, driving the rapid growth in the demand for display panels such as mobile phones and PCs. However, since Q2 of 21 years, the additional demand for consumer electronics caused by the epidemic has gradually weakened, the capacity expansion of overlay display panel manufacturers is too fast, and the display panel industry as a whole is in a state of overcapacity in which supply exceeds demand.
The medium and high-end mobile phone market is growing rapidly, with vivo, Xiaomi and other shares in the top: according to the statistical data of counterpoint, China's smart phone market is $250399, and the medium and high-end mobile phone market in 2022 Q1 increased by 10% year-on-year, accounting for 25.5% of the total sales. Among the market segments, vivo S12 ranks first with 9% market share, followed by Hongmi K40 and glory 60.
Consumer electronics demand has remained weak since Q1 in 22 years. According to cinno and IDC data, China's mobile phone sales fell by 20-24% year-on-year and month on month in February. At the same time, it is estimated that China's smartphone shipments in 22 years will be 310 million, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%. However, with the continuous development of China's economy, the demand of medium and high-end consumer groups for mobile phone products has increased. According to the earlier data of counterpoint, the sales volume of the global high-end mobile phone market increased by 24% year-on-year in 21 years, exceeding the overall sales volume of 17 PCTs of global smart phones in the same period, and the overall demand grew rapidly.
The industry valuation level gradually entered a lower range: the PE (TTM) of SW electronics sector was 23.60 times, significantly lower than the peak level of 88.11 times in the 4G construction cycle.
Last week, the performance of the electronic sector rebounded: last week, among the 37 sub-4 industrial stocks of shenwandian, 319 rose, 53 fell and 2 were flat, with an increase ratio of. 8 5.29%
Risk factors: the risk of continued conflict between Russia and Ukraine; Trade friction risk; The risk of technology R & D not keeping up with expectations; The risk of intensified competition in the same industry.
