Lin Zhanyue
Maintain the “overweight” rating of light industry. The competition pattern of cultural paper and white cardboard continues to improve, the supply of waste paper raw materials is tightened, the demand still needs macro support, and the incremental track of special paper continues to be developed. The recommended standard is the following of the following: Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 078 , Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) .
The supply pressure of new production capacity of overseas broad-leaved pulp may continue to increase, the stability of coniferous pulp is relatively strong, the import volume of wood pulp finished paper increases, the demand support of China’s downstream is poor, and the pattern of cultural paper industry is expected to continue to be optimized; Waste paper is a raw material, and the control ability determines the core competitiveness. The terminal demand of finished paper still needs macroeconomic support. Wood pulp: the supply pressure of new production capacity of broad-leaved pulp may continue to increase, and coniferous pulp will maintain a relatively medium and high level. Waste paper: the import of foreign waste is prohibited. The total supply of waste paper in China is tightening, and the national waste is expected to continue to operate at a relatively high level. Special paper: high boom terminal demand, new scene development increment of the track, high value-added categories to resist cyclical fluctuations, and the profit center of the integrated layout of Forest Pulp paper is expected to break through. Box board corrugated paper: the cost support of waste paper is relatively strong, and it has weakened after the recovery and growth of end consumer demand; In recent years, the newly added capacity is relatively limited, and the ability to control raw material channels determines the future industry position. White cardboard: high concentration, relatively stable profit level, expansion potential on the demand side and more new capacity on the supply side. Cultural paper: the increase of China’s imported paper has impacted the price of finished paper, the double reduction of education and the double control of energy consumption may affect supply and demand, and the pattern of cultural paper industry is expected to continue to be optimized. Household paper: the oversupply pattern needs to be improved, the channel layout of leading paper enterprises is accelerated, the optimization of product structure continues, and the competition of end products is intensified.
Most of the national waste prices are stable, and the recycling price of the packaging station is relatively strong. The corrugated paper market is weak, and the carton board market is stable and down. The downstream demand of white board and white cardboard is weak, and the market is weak. The average market price of waste yellow paperboard in China was 2359 yuan / ton, up 0.21% month on month and up 7.37% year-on-year. The average market price of 120g corrugated paper was 3757 yuan / ton, down 21 yuan / ton from the average price of the previous period, with a month on month decrease of 0.56% and a year-on-year increase of 2.93%; The average market price of box board paper was 4858 yuan / ton, down 1 yuan / ton from last week, with a month on month decrease of 0.02% and a year-on-year increase of 6.75%.
The average price of white paper decreased by 13.96% compared with that of last week, including a year-on-year decrease of 452.03% of white paper / week; The average weekly price including tax in the white cardboard market was 6440 yuan / ton, down 0.03% from last week and 33.68% year-on-year.
The pulp price is running at a high level, the industry has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the trading of imported wood pulp spot market is rigid.
The market of offset paper fluctuates in a narrow range. The average price of imported coniferous pulp was 7388 yuan / ton, down 0.31% from last week and up 4.18% year-on-year; The average price of imported broad-leaved pulp was 6546 yuan / ton, up 4.45% from last week and 26.04% year-on-year. The average market price of coated paper was 5590 yuan / ton, down 0.18% month on month and 20.93% compared with the same period last year; The average market price of double offset paper was 6017 yuan / ton, down 0.20% month on month and 9.18% year-on-year. The average price of household paper was 722250 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of about 214.17 yuan / ton, or about 3.06%. Risk tips: price fluctuations of raw materials and macroeconomic fluctuations
