This paper reports
1. Lay out the main line of repair in the next step
2. The consumption of building materials can be compared with Q2 after the epidemic in 2020. The elasticity in the differentiation period is not small ticket. 3. Glass fiber: the focus of the market has shifted from focusing on price to focusing on the expansion of structural profit difference. 4. Building glass: large-scale cold repair that fails to occur as scheduled will suppress the rebound. Elastic automobile glass: the bottom has passed, and the production schedule has warmed up
Photovoltaic glass: silicon production capacity is released, and Q2 performance is more certain to pick up month on month. 5. Cement: the logic of bulk commodities is weak, and the logic of buying cement is still “slow”
6. Carbon fiber: new energy and military industry are still the most determined demand links. Pay attention to Shenying, Guangwei and carbon valley. 7. Xiaopiao recommends quartz, Sibao and Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598)
1. Lay out the main line of repair in the next step
There is no shortage of liquidity in the market in the near future, and the “blocking point” of the epidemic has not been lifted (but we judge that the dark time has passed, and we expect to continue to repair). At this time, the market rebound is mainly led by the track theme of small cap or the growth rate of quarterly report 1, and small cap growth (regardless of valuation); The building materials sector has rebounded a lot of such varieties recently, but for institutional investors, the next main line of layout is the main line of economic repair after the “blocking point”:
Recent high-frequency data reflect two characteristics:
1. The recovery of cement at the start-up end was significantly weaker than that of consumer building materials. In April, the national cement output per month was 195 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%, the lowest level in the same period in 10 years, and the improvement in the first two weeks of May was not obvious. The data of cement and construction machinery can basically confirm each other, while the leading shipment of functional consumer building materials in April was nearly the same year-on-year, and recovered significantly in May, which verifies our previous judgment, On the one hand, the commencement link has obvious seasonality (if you miss it, you have to wait for the next season), and the focus of stable growth in the future includes the unit investment of urban renewal, underground pipe network, urban rail and other projects, and the demand for cement is less driven; 2. For the same consumer building materials, the difference between the end of April and may is reflected in that the recovery of functional consumer building materials is ahead of that of decoration, and the recovery of key enterprises, which are also the leaders of functional consumer building materials, is significantly better than that of small enterprises (whether to give priority to resumption of work and production due to the difference in factory location and local importance). In addition, there is a large difference in the recovery of downstream customers, and the downstream is also a state-owned enterprise of key projects and high-quality real estate, and the central enterprise is in a better situation, Therefore, the consumption of building materials is reflected in the larger, the stronger and the faster; Building materials are the first choice for the large building materials industry. The most important change is to buy a company with good quarterly report, rather than empty out everything than louboli:
For consumer building materials, the business model of growth has undergone great directional changes, punishing high leverage, the beginning of growth differentiation, the past high leverage model of blindfolded running bound to h and other real estate has ended, and the past logic has lost its consistent logic, so the elasticity is not on the worse balance sheet, The best verification of the differentiation of growth in 2022 is that we can still obtain the performance growth, profit growth and cash flow ahead of the industry in the adversity of the first quarter (actually starting from Q4 in 2021), which will indicate the real growth direction in the next three years from 2022; Please refer to the annual report of a / h building materials leader in 2021 and the summary of the first quarterly report in 2022
In terms of long-term value, the pressure brought by the demand side and cost side to large enterprises in the industry from 2021 to 2022 is observable, while the liquidation of small enterprises in the industry is self-evident. The long-term investment value of consumer building materials lies in the growth brought by the huge concentration and promotion potential, which is amplified in the current adversity; In the second half of the year and next year, the endogenous improvement of demand and the stabilization of middle and upper reaches costs will also bring sustainable environmental advantages for the gradual improvement of enterprise performance, and even the low base of 2021h2 will contribute to the advantages in the medium term.
The epidemic situation was cleared quickly, making the bottom area more definite
The impact of the epidemic that began to spread in the first quarter and seriously exceeded expectations created a bottom with relatively definite fundamentals, including the impact on the enterprise delivery itself, the policy overweight that brought subsequent stable growth and the real estate relaxation policy overweight, and accelerating the supply and clearing of small enterprises in the industry;
In fact, the market has relatively full expectations for the performance of the first quarterly report of consumer building materials enterprises. After the confirmation of the first quarterly report, whether it is cost pressure, demand impact, cost pressure, leading advantage, demand toughness and the expectations of other participants, these factors will be confirmed, and they have reached the stage of more confident participation.
We believe that the difficulty of returning to work on the construction site is far lower than that of precision manufacturing and consumption, and the high-frequency situation seems to verify this; On the cost side, midstream refining and chemical industries bear certain cost pressure for the consumer building materials industry. At present, the business model of the industry is not inferior in the current market environment.
The fundamentals turn to the right, with the signal of gradual dredging of epidemic gambling points
At present, the high-frequency data we have shows that the demand in South China has begun to recover significantly, while the logistics environment in East China has improved in recent weeks;
At the end of the first quarter of 2020, we called for “resumption of work as the leader of the dry cycle”. It is clear that the first key signal for the right turn of fundamentals is the resumption of work and production, especially in the East China market with the strongest endogenous demand. At present, a variety of evidences, such as the policy of logistics / Automobile / electronics industry chain, expect that the promotion of resumption of work and production has become the marginal focus of policy attention, so the appropriate layout in advance is a good opportunity;
