The pharmaceutical sector rebounded as a whole this week
This week, the pharmaceutical biological index fell 2%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.24 percentage points, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.03 percentage points, and ranking the 31st in the industry in terms of rise and fall. On May 20 (this Friday), the PE (TTM, excluding negative value) of the pharmaceutical industry was 25X, close to the "average value - twice the standard deviation" since 2015. Compared with last Friday (May 6), the PE decreased by 0.5 units, 13 units lower than the average value (37x) since 2015. Among the 13 pharmaceutical level III sub industries this week, 2 sub industries rose and 11 sub industries fell. Blood products was the sub industry with the largest increase, up 1.6%, and vaccine was the sub industry with the largest decrease, down 6.3%.
The new infectious disease monkeypox virus has aroused market concerns, and covid-19 related pharmaceutical companies are expected to have a sustained market next week
This week, the pharmaceutical industry made a sharp correction. Only blood products and offline pharmacies in Shenwan's tertiary industry increased, while other companies fell, with poor profit-making effect. On the last trading day of Friday, the market rose sharply because of the fear of the global spread of infectious diseases caused by monkeypox virus; Covid-19 and other related companies had a large callback.
We still continue our investment framework, practice top-down and bottom-up, and look for investment targets. We need to think in four dimensions: macro + industry + company + management: there is still uncertainty in the macro environment (the turmoil of the Russian Ukrainian war, the US inflation rate increase, the spread of the epidemic, etc.), standing at the market point of fundamentals and capital structure (the differences and positions of pharmaceutical funds and industry wide funds on medicine), This year, the centralized purchase policy continued to be implemented (centralized purchase of consumables, national purchase, alliance purchase, etc.). In addition, the short-term pharmaceutical industry sector has not seen clear favorable policies / changes, and the valuations of many pharmaceutical companies have reached a very reasonable range, but the uncertainty of changes brought by the policy makes many investors unable to start. On May 20 (this Friday), PE (TTM, excluding negative value) in the pharmaceutical industry was 25X, close to the "mean value - twice the standard deviation" since 2015. From the perspective of valuation, medicine should no longer be pessimistic. Medicine is already a reasonable range downstream of the historical valuation center and has strong investment allocation value. Once the policy is stable, it will improve the valuation of the company.
We suggest the direction configuration of this year: Traditional Chinese medicine (policy friendly + undervalued value) + medical equipment (medical infrastructure) + scientific research reagents and upstream (autonomous and controllable) + looking for the target from bottom to top in other directions.
We suggest the following investment ideas:
(1) a traditional Chinese medicine sector (with a brand name and a noble OTC plus an innovative traditional Chinese medicine for the brand ''Brand, and a precious OTC plus plus the brand''Brand, the traditional Chinese medicine sector (1) a traditional Chinese medicine sector (for the brand, and the precious and precious OTC plus the innovative Chinese Medicine): a traditional Chinese medicine sector (1) a traditional Chinese medicine sector (for the brand, the brand, the brand, the precious, and the brand, the brand, the precious, and the brand, the brand, the precious, and the OTC plus plus the brand, the brand '' '' ''plus a traditional traditional traditional Chinese Medicine Innovation): the Chinese sector sector sector sector sector sector of Chinese medicine (for the Chinese): ' Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 60097for a variety of the party , Teyi Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002728) , Guilin Sanjin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002275) , Zhejiang Shouxiangu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603896) and other targets, it is also suggested to pay attention to: Tasly Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600535) , Hunan Fangsheng Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603998) .
(2) TCM treatment service: gushengtang (the leading pioneer of TCM treatment service, maintaining the "buy" rating);
(3) medical infrastructure sector: we continue to recommend Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) 832 , Shenzhen Yhlo Biotech Co.Ltd(688575) , Autobio Diagnostics Co.Ltd(603658) , Shenzhen Lifotronic Technology Co.Ltd(688389) , Maccura Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300463) , Tellgen Corporation(300642) , Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) Wuhan Easy Diagnosis Biomedicine Co.Ltd(002932) et al. IVD enterprises play an important role in epidemic prevention and control (antibodies, antigens and nucleic acid detection reagents), which provides sufficient funds for the development of the company in the future.
4) scientific research reagents and upstream: scientific research reagents and scientific research reagents and upstream: scientific research reagents and scientific research reagents and upstream: we propose to focus on Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) , Nanmo biology, etc.
(5) medical service sector: it belongs to the consumption sector and needs to continue to observe the evolution of local policies according to the epidemic situation. The normal recovery of hospital order will lead to the rapid recovery of performance. We recommend haijiya, gushengtang, jinxinreproductive, Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Chaoju Ophthalmology, Purui ophthalmology, Huaxia Ophthalmology, he's Ophthalmology, Guangzheng Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(002524) , etc; (6) Biological products sector: the vaccine sector needs continuous attention. We recommend Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) , Chengdu Olymvax Biopharmaceuticals Inc(688319) , and Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , etc.
(7) CXO: considering the performance uncertainty of some companies in 2023 / 2024 driven by the performance of covid-19, we believe that the cro companies of generic drugs deserve attention and recommend Baicheng pharmaceutical and Beijing Sun-Novo Pharmaceutical Research Co.Ltd(688621) ;
(8) medical device sector: considering the uncertainty caused by centralized purchase, it is difficult for us to predict clearly. Innovative and international targets can be paid continuous attention, such as those of consumables sector (huitai medicine, Shanghai Microport Endovascular Medtech (Group) Co.Ltd(688016) , Micro-Tech (Nanjing) Co.Ltd(688029) , Jafron Biomedical Co.Ltd(300529) , Peijia medical, Qiming medical, etc.), regenerative medicine sector ( Yantai Zhenghai Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300653) , Medprin Regenerative Medical Technologies Co.Ltd(301033) , etc.); We recommend Cofoe Medical Technology Co.Ltd(301087) , and pay attention to Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) .
(6) for the innovative drug sector, it is recommended to pay attention to the innovative drug targets with international capabilities. We recommend Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , and we recommend to pay attention to Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Baiji Shenzhou, Betta Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300558) , Hehuang medicine, kangfang biology, China biopharmaceutical, etc. in addition, for the innovative drug targets with characteristics, we recommend Keji pharmaceutical and Yunding Xinyao.
New report issued this week
Shenyaokang Biology (688046): Based on animal models, create products + services and explore new boundaries of the industry; Company depth Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) ( Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) ): "forge ahead, private eye leaders continue to lead"; Company comments Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) ( Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) . SH): vv116 continues to promote and expects phase III data disclosure.
Performance of individual stocks this week: A shares and most Hong Kong stocks rose
Of the 434 A-share pharmaceutical and biological stocks this week, 123 rose, accounting for 28%. The top ten medicine stocks with the top ten medicine stocks in the top ten of the top ten medicine stocks are: ST and best (+ 21.74% 21.74% 21.74% of the 21.48% of the first 10 of the top ten medicine stocks: the medicine stocks of the top ten of the top ten of the top ten of the top ten of the top ten of the top ten of the top ten of the top ten of the top ten of the top ten of the top ten of the top ten of the top ten of the top ten of the list of Medicine: the ST and good (+ 21.74% 21.74%, 21.74% 21.74%, 21.74% 21.74 percent (+ 21.74.74% 21.74% 21.74 percent of the first 10.03% of the of the first 10.03 percent of the Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 581 ( (+ 10.17%), Shanghai Zj Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(688317) (+ 10.13%); Pharmaceutical stocks with the top ten declines were:
At the end of the year of the end of the Pku Healthcare Corp.Ltd(000788) (- 14.6%), Shenzhen Yhlo Biotech Co.Ltd(688575) (- 14.21%).
Of the 88 Hong Kong stocks this week, 71 rose, accounting for 80.7%.
Covid-19 epidemic in China
Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Sichuan, Henan, Guangdong and other places. New cases in Shanghai continued to decline.
Risk tips
Policy risk, competition risk, abnormal stock price fluctuation risk.
