According to the latest statistics from the paper industry observation network, from January to March this year, the cumulative import volume of coated paper in China's paper industry was 44300 tons, a decrease of 38.01% compared with the same period last year, and the cumulative export volume was 216500 tons, an increase of 21.97% compared with the same period last year. Under the conditions of weak downstream demand for cultural paper, light market trading and weak price rise, the relative activity of export foreign trade is good for the release of inventory pressure of paper mills.
In an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily, the head paper enterprises, including Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) , Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) and others, said that since this year, the export volume of main paper products has increased significantly year-on-year, alleviating the dilemma of high cost and weak demand faced by the industry to a certain extent.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) analysis points out that for wood pulp papermaking enterprises, the growth of external demand is bright, and the marginal pattern of supply and demand is gradually improving after the industry's profits hit the bottom. In the medium and long term, the industry pattern is continuously optimized, and paper enterprises with their own pulp line and diversified business development are expected to benefit in the long term.
slurry price high maintenance time or higher than expected
Recently, due to the continuous global energy contraction caused by geopolitical conflicts, the soaring energy prices have hit the European paper industry chain hard. With the same cool and hot situation around the world, China's paper industry, especially wood pulp paper enterprises dominated by cultural paper, is also deeply affected. It is understood that since May, the pulp futures market has been affected by the continuous fermentation factors in the international news, and the pulp price has maintained a high shock trend, resulting in further erosion of the profits of the downstream base paper industry.
Chang Junting, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang information, told the Securities Daily that although the paper industry has entered the off-season, the performance of pulp prices is still strong. The main driving force is still the continuous release of news from outside China, such as the blocking of traffic by the flood in Canada and the suspension of workers in Finland; Since May, susano paper and pulp company, the world's largest pulp producer headquartered in Brazil, said that the supply was overloaded, which also once caused the abnormal rise of the A-share paper sector.
In Chang Junting's view, at present, it is in the traditional off-season of the paper industry, the market demand for cultural paper and white cardboard is insufficient, and some areas are cloudy and falling. "Under the influence of uncertain factors, the social demand in the downstream of cultural paper continues to be weak, the market trading is weak, the dealer turnover is light, and the market pessimism is more prominent."
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) recent research report also pointed out that the global pulp supply tension has intensified, and the high pulp price may last longer than expected. "In 2022, the increment of wood pulp supply is limited, and the pulp price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. In the medium term, the supply and demand pattern is expected to improve, and the pulp price center is expected to move down in 2023." Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) analysis scale.
Of course, the energy dilemma in Europe and the tight supply of raw materials in the paper industry are also double-edged swords. Insiders told the Securities Daily, "at present, the paper industry chain in Europe has been damaged, which has greatly weakened the impact of overseas paper imports, while the demand in foreign regions is relatively good, so it will also benefit the export of Chinese paper enterprises."
Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) a staff member of the Securities Department told the reporter of Securities Daily that at present, the company's export situation is relatively good, and the company also attaches great importance to the development of overseas sales market. Since this year, the export volume of main paper has increased by 30% - 50% year-on-year Yueyang Forest & Paper Co.Ltd(600963) also said that with the changes in the international market and the implementation of RCEP this year, the company has become the first batch of enterprises to handle RCEP preferential certificate of origin by Yueyang International Chamber of Commerce for the promotion of international trade. At present, it is seizing the opportunity to increase the export of paper products.
According to the data of the General Administration of customs, since the fourth quarter of last year, the monthly export volume of white cardboard has repeatedly reached a new high (it declined slightly in February this year due to the influence of the Spring Festival holiday, but the year-on-year growth rate of that month was 250%), of which the year-on-year growth rate of export volume in a single month in the first quarter of this year was twice or more.
industry concentration continues to be optimized
Under the background of rising costs, the industry also continued to differentiate Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) pointed out that from the perspective of industry data, the leading profitability is in the chain repair, some production capacity of small and medium-sized enterprises is cleared, and the competition pattern will be further optimized.
During the interview, the reporter saw that on the interactive platform, in the face of investors' inquiry about the impact of the recent contradiction between supply and demand in China's international paper industry on the company, the head paper enterprises have made their own layout in the integration of Forest Pulp and paper, giving the market and investors a "reassuring pill".
Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) said that affected by the rising prices of logistics, bulk commodity, chemical raw materials and energy, the company has successively issued price increase letters recently and is currently implementing them. The company has a wood pulp production capacity of 4.3 million tons, which is one of the enterprises with the highest pulp matching degree in the industry. It has a high advantage on the cost side, so it can restrain the cost pressure caused by the high price of some pulp Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) also pointed out that with the gradual advancement of the company's "three bases" Forest Pulp paper integration project, the self-sufficiency rate of the company's wood pulp, wood chips and other production raw materials will increase steadily, which can effectively iron the impact of the price fluctuation of wood pulp on the company's operating performance.
"From the perspective of supply pattern, the market competition pattern of cultural paper and white cardboard continues to be optimized." Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) analysis points out that the improvement of industry concentration makes the synergy between paper enterprises more prominent. For example, since this year, pulp prices have strengthened, and wood pulp and paper enterprises have ushered in waves of price increases. "The timing and range of price increases among large-scale paper enterprises are highly coordinated, and actively promoting the implementation of price increases will also improve the profitability of the industry."
However, from the perspective of recent performance, Zhang Yan, an analyst of Zhuo Chuang information, told the Securities Daily that the continuous high pulp price has squeezed the profits of the industry, limited profit space for paper mills, and some manufacturers show the mentality of "rather stopping than reducing". In addition, due to favorable export trade, delayed release of some publishing bidding orders and other factors, paper mills still mainly support the price. "In the short term, the stalemate between the upstream and downstream is difficult to ease, and the cultural paper disk is mainly sorted out." Zhang Yan said that the industry is waiting for the marginal improvement of supply and demand pattern.
