The science and technology innovation board, which focuses on scientific and technological innovation, is about to usher in the third anniversary of its opening. As of May 20, the number of listed companies on the science and Innovation Board had reached 421, with a total market value of 4.87 trillion yuan, accounting for 5.83% of all a shares. In three years, the Sci-tech Innovation Board has grown into a pivotal role in the capital market.
Before the official launch of the science and innovation board, the first batch of science and innovation theme funds took the lead in entering the market in May 2019, which has reached the third anniversary. According to wind statistics, as of May 20, 2022, these science and innovation theme funds have made remarkable achievements in the past three years. Among them, harvest scientific and technological innovation managed by Wang GuiGui, the large science and technology research director of Harvest Fund, has entered the top three with a return of 98.10%.
As a famous technology investment general, Wang GuiGui was admitted to Peking University at the age of 13. After receiving a doctorate in quantum electronics from Peking University at the age of 22, he entered the information management industry and engaged in TMT industry research. Since joining Harvest Fund in 2015, it has continued to plough deeply in the field of science and technology and built its own investment structure of science and technology stocks.
improve the investment framework and expand the scope of investment
Looking back on the past three years, there are many industries from 0 to 1, from 1 to N, such as semiconductors, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, CXO, etc. the rapid changes of these industries have brought soil for science and innovation investment to obtain sustainable benefits. Wang GuiGui said that in such an environment, there are enough industrial depth and emerging excellent entrepreneurs to make it possible for individuals and teams to practice their values and methodologies.
For harvest's achievements and experience in participating in the investment in the science and innovation board in the past three years, Wang GuiGui introduced that the overall investment framework is constantly improved. At first, more attention was paid to the management and competitiveness, that is, the value creation ability of entrepreneurs, as well as the pricing power and competitiveness of enterprises; Later, with the deepening of the understanding of different business models in different industries, I began to think about how different enterprises in different industries can continue to produce benefits, and which point do people, money and materials depend on; Later, they began to pay attention to the power of industrial trends.
"I understand the industrial trend and the individual company as the relationship between the current situation and heroes. The current situation makes heroes. Heroes can occasionally make the current situation, and it is easier to get returns in the general trend. Finally, we pay more attention to pricing. Even if it is a good industry, a good business model and a good company, we should have a good price at last, otherwise it is difficult to make money." Wang GuiGui said.
Based on the improvement of the above framework, Wang's investment scope has also expanded from electronics and semiconductors to new energy, Internet, CXO and other industries.
three changes and two improvements
Standing at the moment and reviewing the changes brought to the capital market by the launch of the science and innovation board in the past three years, Wang GuiGui believes that it mainly focuses on three aspects. The first is that the research becomes more difficult. Sci tech innovation board is committed to serving scientific and technological innovation enterprises. Many companies have high scientific and technological content. In addition, sci tech innovation board is reforming towards the full registration system, more early enterprises are listed, and many innovative drug companies even have no income. These factors make it more difficult to research and price; The second is that the stock price fluctuates greatly. In the early stage of the enterprise, the stock price is more sensitive to the changes of external factors, and the greater the difference of pricing, which increases the fluctuation of stock price; Third, the potential return increases. The early stage of industries and enterprises also means better potential performance growth, which makes the potential return of science and Innovation Board higher.
In view of this, referring to the aspects that need to be further improved in the future, Wang GuiGui pointed out that it is mainly in two aspects: the first is the power and non-linear impact of industrial trends. "Human thinking is often linear, while the development of industry is nonlinear. It is difficult for us to imagine that the profits of many new energy and semiconductor companies have increased by 10 times or more in just three years. Therefore, we need to have a more breakthrough consciousness to grasp the science and technology industry and subdivision track."
The second is the accuracy of pricing. Wang GuiGui said that he will use the discounted free cash flow model (DCF) and probability weighting to price the company, but it involves elements such as space, competition, business model and management. Therefore, the changes of various hypothetical variables are very sensitive to the results. In the future, he will continue to strengthen his understanding of the company and strive to be more accurate on the basis of fuzziness and correctness.
short-term correction does not change the long-term belief in science and technology investment
Since this year, the A-share market has undergone drastic adjustment, and the net value of the first batch of science and innovation theme funds has retreated significantly in the short term. In this regard, Wang GuiGui analyzed that the decline of the market this year is mainly divided into three stages: first, the killing valuation caused by the rise of U.S. bond interest rate, secondly, the stagflation concern caused by geopolitics, and finally the short-term supply and demand impact caused by the previous epidemic, resulting in a long-term contraction in investment style, resulting in a large decline in military industry, semiconductors, new energy, computers, media, electronics and so on.
However, after the rapid adjustment since the beginning of the year, Wang GuiGui believes that the current location opportunities outweigh the risks. Although the macro conditions that suppress corporate profits and valuations still exist, with the marginal weakening of the impact, it will gradually enter a new upward trend after the second quarter of 2022. The recent signs of recovery in the science and technology sector also confirm this point.
In the medium and long term, Wang GuiGui always believes that science and technology can make the cake bigger exponentially, and the value creation of excellent enterprises will be more prominent. The industrial trend in the next 5-10 years is to promote consumption, improve efficiency, make up for weaknesses, and internationalization. "The rise of China's science and technology will inevitably lead to the rise of national strength, and the rise of national strength will inevitably lead to the further improvement of science and technology. We will have many international enterprises headquartered in China." Wang GuiGui said that he has always been optimistic about the three major needs in specific directions, namely information, energy and life. Specific industries include digitization (including Internet platform), new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, semiconductor and innovative drugs.
Statistics show that harvest fund took the science and technology track as the key direction of strategic layout as early as more than a decade ago, and continued to carry out the layout and research of the whole industrial chain in the whole field of scientific and technological innovation. At present, harvest has more than 30 researchers in the whole major scientific and technological direction (TMT, medicine and manufacturing), which is a strong configuration in the market. From one side, harvest is optimistic about the direction of scientific and technological innovation.
