In early trading on the 23rd, the concept of monkeypox was undoubtedly the strongest sector, but the popularity leader Shanghai Zj Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(688317) did not have a word limit. Market participants were generally worried that monkeypox would not break out on a large scale, so speculation funds were hesitant.
In fact, there is another main line worthy of attention in the market, the cyclical stock market under the “tariff stick” in India and Indonesia. In early trading on the 23rd, A-Shares reappeared the “coal flying color dance” market, the coal sector rose sharply, and non-ferrous stocks set off a wave of trading limit.
While the capital inflow cycle and resource sector, the adjustment of real estate and new energy sector is obvious. On the news side, in the morning of the 23rd, some media issued a document saying that “the property market can not step on the red line without the bottom line”, adding that market participants believe that the real estate sector is good. Therefore, the sectors of real estate, Baijiu, household appliances, catering tourism, electricity and new energy have been adjusted one after another, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) 979 .
Overall, as of the midday closing, the Shanghai index fell 0.47%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 0.71% and the gem index fell 0.76%. In terms of northward funds, the net outflow of northward funds in half a day is nearly 5 billion. More than 2800 stocks rose in the two cities. The half day turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 532.8 billion, down 33.8 billion from the morning of the previous trading day.
Max 50%
India raises iron ore export tariff
Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) limit and total market value approaching 100 billion
Due to the serious inflation in China, the Indian government suddenly announced that the export tariff of iron ore will be officially increased from May 22, among which the export tariff of iron ore of different iron grades and varieties will be increased to 45% – 50%. In addition, the export tariff of hot-rolled, cold-rolled and coated coils with a width of more than 600mm will be increased from 0% to 15%, and the export tariff of iron ore, pellet, pig iron, rod and wire and some stainless steel varieties will also be increased to varying degrees.
According to the statistics of the international trade organization, from January to April 2022, India exported 10.72 million tons of iron ore to the world and 6.24 million tons to China.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) futures said that India is one of the non mainstream iron ore suppliers, and its iron ore is mainly exported to China. Therefore, this tariff adjustment can be said to be an accurate tariff specifically for Chinese buyers. The current 50% tax on fine ore and lump ore and 45% tax on pellets. The previous tax rate was 30%, and China’s import cost from India increased by 15% – 20%. India’s iron ore exports account for 2-3% of China’s iron ore imports, which is larger than the total imports from Russia and Ukraine. The impact of the tariff increase on the Chinese market may exceed that caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In addition, for China, the pellet ore imported from India accounts for 30% of the total import volume, so this will push up the pellet premium.
Affected by this news, in the morning of the 23rd, the main iron ore of Dashang iron ore soared by nearly 7% at the opening. Although the increase then fell, it still rose by more than 3% as of press time.
Upstream price increases are bound to spread to the middle and lower reaches. Under the expectation of price rise, the steel industry sector in the A-share market continued to rebound, led by the rise of “home mine” and Shandong Jinling Mining Co.Ltd(000655) limit.
Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) three times the limit, with a total market value of 95.3 billion.
Inner Mongolia Dazhong Mining Co.Ltd(001203) once raised the limit.
Chongqing Iron & Steel Company Limited(601005) , Xining Special Steel Co.Ltd(600117) etc.
national development and Reform Commission
coal stocks diving during the session
While raising the export tariff of iron ore, India also announced to reduce the import tax rate of coking coal and coke from 2.5% and 5% to 0 tariff.
It is understood that India has always been a large coal consuming country, with an external dependence of more than 20%. It imports about 300 million to 400 million tons of coal every year, mainly from Indonesia, Australia and South Africa.
Since 2022, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has disturbed the supply and demand balance of the global coal market, resulting in the soaring coal prices in the international market.
At the same time, the rare high-temperature weather in India and China led to a surge in power demand and the most serious power crisis in more than six years. The power generation in India and China is mainly coal power generation, accounting for 70%, which also leads to a new high in India’s coal consumption since 2022.
When European countries boycotted Russian coal together, India “quietly” bought Russian low-cost coal on a large scale. According to the data released by Commodity Research Institute kpler, in March this year, the total amount of coal imported by India from Russia reached 1.04 million tons, a new high since January 2020. However, after being condemned by western countries, India slowed down its import speed.
Affected by this news, the prices of coking coal and coke futures rose sharply in the morning of the 23rd. However, in the morning, the national development and Reform Commission issued a notice on clarifying the price bid-up behavior of operators in the coal field (No. 4 in 2022), which put forward the specific manifestations of the price bid-up behavior of coal (domestic thermal coal, the same below), and made it clear that coal production and operation enterprises shall not resell coal to related parties, and then the related parties shall significantly increase the price to sell coal.
Double focus futures prices fell in response. Coking coal fell nearly 3% after rising by more than 3%.
Coke rose more than 4% at the opening and is now down more than 1%.
On the A-share market, the coal index plunged. As of press time, among the constituent stocks, only Anyuan Coal Industry Group Co.Ltd(600397) rose by the limit, while the gains of other stocks narrowed.
Indonesia prohibits the export of bauxite and tin
Last week, Indonesia also announced an export ban on commodities. Bahlil lahadalia, Minister of investment and chairman of the BKPM, said recently that the Indonesian government would stop exporting bauxite and tin in 2022 to support the upstream and downstream construction of related industries.
According to customs data, in the first quarter of 2022, China imported 6.768 million tons of bauxite from Indonesia, a year-on-year increase of 118%. According to SMM data, China imported 21.2% of the total bauxite from Indonesia in March.
In addition, Indonesia’s Tin reserves and output rank second in the world. According to the statistics of Indonesia’s Ministry of energy and mining, the country’s Tin reserves are 2.23 million tons and tin ore reserves are 2.29 billion tons; Indonesia’s tin production target in 2021 is 70000 tons.
Affected by this message, Fujian Minfa Aluminium Co.Ltd(002578) , Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co.Ltd(002824) two consecutive daily limits.
Jiangsu Lidao New Material Co.Ltd(603937) three consecutive trading limits.
New York is in a state of emergency
Beingmate Co.Ltd(002570) 2 minutes crazy limit
According to the people’s Daily overseas network, New York Mayor Adams declared a state of emergency at a time when there was a shortage of infant formula in the United States.
Adams said the shortage of infant formula had caused “unimaginable pain and anxiety” to local families. He mentioned that the signing of an emergency administrative order would crack down on the price fraud of relevant milk powder to prevent retailers from bid up prices. “The nationwide shortage of infant formula is hurting parents and families in our city,” said ISOM, deputy mayor of health and public services in New York City
Referring to the current shortage of infant formula in the United States, Professor Coggins of the University of Tennessee Health Science Center said in an interview earlier: “this is the worst and worrying crisis I have seen in my career.” Amanda Starbuck, research director of the US non-governmental organization “food and water watch”, believes that the US milk powder crisis shows that there is a high degree of centralized monopoly in the whole food supply chain. He believes that the federal government needs to take more responsibility in it.
In terms of a shares, dairy stocks rose on the 23rd.
Beingmate Co.Ltd(002570) straight line limit.
Xinjiang Western Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300106) rose by more than 8%, followed by Xinjiang Talimu Agriculture Development Co.Ltd(600359) , Royal Group Co.Ltd(002329) , Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Co.Ltd(600419) and others.
US aircraft dispatched to return 35 tons of milk powder
According to reference news, according to CNN’s website on May 22, a US military transport plane carrying 35 tons of infant formula arrived in Indianapolis from Germany that day to solve the national shortage of milk powder.
According to the report, this batch of milk powder was transported to the United States by C-17 transport plane. This batch of formula comes from Zurich, Switzerland. It is transported to Germany by truck and then loaded with C-17 to the United States.
It was reported that an official of Biden administration disclosed earlier that the batch of formula milk powder would be distributed to the places with the most urgent demand in the country. However, the official said that the milk powder would not be placed on store shelves in the United States, adding that the milk powder delivered on the 22nd was hypoallergenic milk powder, which was used to feed infants who were intolerant to milk protein.
Tom virgin, the Secretary of agriculture who greeted the milk powder in Indianapolis, said that the milk powder delivered on the 22nd could be used by 9000 infants and 18000 young children for a week.
According to the report, the formula delivered this time includes the formula of Nestle Health Sciences – alfamino infant formula and enfamino infant formula. On the 22nd, when the milk powder arrived in Indianapolis, a Nestle spokesman said: “some milk powder can be distributed in a few days, while others will be distributed to the supply chain after completing the standard quality test”.
The report said that this batch of milk powder was imported because the shortage of infant formula has caused some desperate American families to fall into serious chaos and depression. Some families have begun to limit the supply of formula, while others turn to hospitals for help when they can’t buy the required formula.
Many securities companies
“honest boy” opened 3 minutes lower limit
Finally, say an interesting thing.
On the “520” day of last Friday, Avicopter Plc(600038) released the announcement of the 2021 annual general meeting of shareholders. Interestingly, the company announced its annual budget directly in the announcement.
Specifically, in the annual budget, the company is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 16.621 billion yuan in 2022, a decrease of 5.169 billion yuan over the same period of last year, a year-on-year decrease of 23.72%. In 2022, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be 329 million yuan, a decrease of 584 million yuan over the same period of last year, a year-on-year decrease of 63.93%
As a result, in early trading on the 23rd, Avicopter Plc(600038) fell by the limit three minutes after opening.
Interestingly, the company’s pessimistic performance forecast directly “slapped” the company’s brokerage institutions in the near future.
What’s more interesting is that Avicopter Plc(600038) is still favored by securities companies in the past six months, despite the sharp decline in the company’s quarterly performance,. Among them, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) , Minsheng securities, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , Shenyin Wanguo, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) and many other securities business institutions actively sing Avicopter Plc(600038) .
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) research report said that it is strongly optimistic about the future development prospects of the company. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.095 billion yuan, 1.341 billion yuan and 1.671 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 19.98%, 22.43% and 24.57% respectively, and the corresponding EPS from 22 to 24 years will be 1.86, 2.28 and 2.84 yuan respectively.
The Research Report of Minsheng securities estimates that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 is 1.136 billion yuan, 1.374 billion yuan and 1.655 billion yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to 22x / 18x / 15x PE from 2022 to 2024.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) research report points out that based on the high prosperity of the military industry during the 14th Five Year Plan period and considering the leading position of the company in the helicopter field, the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 1.120/13.79/1.636 billion yuan respectively.
Shenyin Wanguo research report raised the expectation that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 was 1.14 billion yuan (previously 1.1 billion yuan), and the new net profit attributable to the parent company in 202324 is predicted to be 1.42/1.73 billion yuan, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 26 / 21 / 17 times respectively. Considering that the company is the only listed leader in the helicopter field, the future performance growth is worthy of key expectation, and the expectation of asset integration is superimposed, so the “buy” rating is maintained.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 1.009/12.32/1.454 billion respectively.
The net profit forecast of Avicopter Plc(600038) 2022 given by the above securities companies is generally more than 1 billion yuan. Compared with the net profit of 329 million yuan in the company’s “520” budget, the expected net profit of securities companies is about three times its expectation. Although Avicopter Plc(600038) said that the budget report is only the internal management control index of the company in 2022 and does not represent the profit commitment of the company. But it’s also a big slap in the face.
