From April 27 to May 20, the rebound rate of power equipment, automobile, national defense and military industry and non-ferrous metals has exceeded 20%, while the growth of banks, real estate and other stable growth related industries lags behind. Since May, leveraged funds have been net buying for three consecutive weeks, and the financing balance has rebounded slightly, indicating that the market risk appetite is continuing to repair. How to interpret the future market? Let’s look at the latest summary of the strategies of the top ten securities companies.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the medium-term slow rise is still in the early stage, and the four main lines continue to rotate
The trend improvement of local epidemic situation and the joint force of policies began to appear. The improvement of fundamentals is expected to drive the medium-term repair of A-Shares for several months. At present, it is still in the initial stage. The market rhythm is characterized by slow rise, and the four main lines of structure continue to rotate. It is suggested to firmly lay out the two main lines of modern infrastructure and real estate throughout the year, continue to focus on the main line of resumption of work and production in the quarter, and pay attention to the main line of consumption restoration in the month.
In the field of infrastructure construction, it is suggested to focus on the undervalued construction leader, power grid, data center and cloud infrastructure , while in the field of real estate, it is suggested to focus on high-quality developers, property management and building materials .
It is suggested to focus on smart cars and parts, semiconductors, photovoltaic wind power equipment, etc. .
It is suggested to focus on aviation, hotel, duty-free, food and beverage, department store super .
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : the market has a midline value, focusing on the post epidemic repair of China’s fundamentals
Looking forward to the future, we reiterate that the market has some characteristics of the bottom in terms of policy, valuation and capital sentiment, and the market already has the value of the middle line; There are still some challenges in the market environment, and more positive fundamental catalysts are needed for further growth. In particular, the month on month improvement of profit expectation may be more important. Under the background of China’s “steady growth” and the decline of overseas growth, we will focus on the post epidemic repair of China’s fundamentals in the future, focusing on real estate, consumer demand, etc. .
Currently, we focus on three directions:
1) the stable growth sector with relatively low valuation may still have relative benefits in the current macro environment, such as traditional infrastructure, real estate stable demand and related industrial chains (building materials, construction, household appliances, household appliances, etc.);
2) for the consumption in the middle and lower reaches with many adjustments in the early stage, low valuation and clear medium and long-term prospects, choose stocks from bottom to top, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc;
3) risks in the manufacturing growth sector, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, have been released. The turnaround lies in the marginal improvement of “stagflation” risk, global liquidity and market sentiment.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : “U” market to avoid over optimism and over pessimism
In the context of sharp fluctuations in the overseas market, A-Shares have stepped out of the independent market in recent two weeks, mainly due to the market risk appetite boosted under the expectation of Shanghai’s resumption of work and production and steady growth policy. In terms of the current market, under the pattern of capital stock game, the rebound cannot be achieved overnight. At present, the conditions from rebound to reversal are not available. While actively participating in this round of rebound, it is necessary to avoid excessive optimism and pessimism. The Shanghai composite index is at Jinlong Machinery & Electronic Co.Ltd(300032) 00 points, which belongs to reasonable fluctuations in the “U” rebound market medium and long term perspective, A-Shares are in the stage of tamping the bottom range and gradually moving the center upward. In terms of industry allocation, we should pay attention to two main investment lines:
First, it is related to steady growth, such as “real estate, construction and building materials”;
Second, it is related to post epidemic repair, such as “food and beverage, automobile”, etc.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities: we should gradually turn to optimism strategically and slowly figure tactically
From the perspective of risk premium, turnover and issuance of new funds, the market sentiment is still at the bottom of the downturn. Although there is still the possibility of continued decline in the follow-up, the space has been relatively limited in terms of odds. Looking forward to the future, we should not be pessimistic in strategy, but gradually turn to optimism. The improvement trend of the whole internal and external environment is a high probability event. The improvement process of the main contradictions inside and outside the market is likely to have some repetition. It is necessary to be prepared for a certain shock in the bottom area of the market. Tactically, we should be patient, slowly figure it out, and take the low-level layout as the basic principle. The macro liquidity is abundant, but the fundamentals are low, the industry performance is divided, and the high-quality growth stocks will gradually pick up, it is suggested to pay attention to food and beverage, securities companies, military industry, photovoltaic, coal, infrastructure, etc., as well as .
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : the wind continues to blow, and the “new half army” repair will continue
At the same time, it also creates a better “warm wind” for China’s military industry and semi military industry. Secondly, the US bond interest rate fluctuated downward, easing the impact on the “new half army”. In addition, with the passing of the quarterly report period, the market has begun to more rationally and calmly explore the bright spots covered up and wrongly killed in the “new half army”. Finally, combined with the judgment of our timing framework, the repair window of the “new half army” will continue .
Specific to sub sections: 1) in the “new half army”, the direction of strong immunity and maintaining high prosperity ( photovoltaic modules / silicon wafers, new military materials / structural parts, wind turbine / upstream materials, semiconductor materials / equipment, 5g optical fiber and cable );
2) consumption of core assets ( alcohol, duty-free, aviation, scenic spots and hotels );
3) “steady growth” sector ( infrastructure, real estate, banking, etc. ).
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : the bottom of the 3-4-year cycle of A-Shares has appeared. At this stage, the new infrastructure is better, and more attention will be paid to consumption in the future
Since the opening of the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect in November 2014, the correlation between China and the United States stock markets has increased, but it is still weakly correlated, in which the phenomenon of A-Shares following the decline is obvious; Since the end of April this year, after the sharp decline of US stocks, A-Shares have not followed the decline, which is due to the dislocation of economic cycles and the different valuation positions of stock markets between China and the United States; The bottom of the 3-4-year cycle of A-Shares has appeared, and positive factors are accumulating. At this stage, the new infrastructure is better, such as 5g and broadband basic network, data center and cloud computing in the digital economy.
photovoltaic wind power, energy storage and UHV deserve attention in low-carbon economy.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : value first, strategy oriented small cap growth stocks
We judge that the market will shift from a muddy situation to a more abundant structural opportunity. We suggest that we first focus on value stocks, and then focus on small cap growth stocks , which benefit from the improvement of the credit environment of private enterprises, are limited by the tightening of the Federal Reserve, have no crowded trading structure and oversold in the early stage.
Industry configuration: 1 “Old style” steady growth force (real estate / consumer building materials / household appliances / banks); 2. “Supply and demand gap” inflation benefiting resources / materials (coal / copper / potassium fertilizer); 3. Small cap growth stocks (photovoltaic cell modules / semiconductor equipment) benefiting from the gradual improvement of private credit environment and more attractive odds.
Minsheng Securities: the growth rebound is coming to an end, preparing for a new round of market cycle
After nearly a month of rebound, some of the growth sectors are close to history, and the rebound range has exceeded the historical center, but it may be the “reversal illusion” caused by the excessive decline in the early stage over the historical average. It is noteworthy that in this round of rebound, the differentiation and convergence of the fund has obviously not kept up with the convergence of asset prices since this year, and “position covering” constitutes a potential reason. This week’s asset price performance seems to be “magnificent”. In fact, it is “calm”. The preset path of fundamentals is no different from that before: the growth rebound is coming to an end, and the sub industry with supply and demand independent of inflation can be stable and far-reaching. The real cycle is coming back. Grasp the certainty of energy, the repair elasticity of metal and the importance of energy transportation recommendations: oil and gas, aluminum, copper, coal, oil transportation, gold, real estate, chemical fertilizer and banks
Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) : “promoting consumption” deserves more attention than “steady growth”
Since late April, the expected repair of the epidemic has promoted the performance of A-Shares to be significantly stronger than overseas. With the recent overseas disturbance and the end of exchange rate concerns, the market is returning to the main line of epidemic repair for the market, the choice of style will be more important than the overall judgment of the market
In terms of structure, focus on four main lines:
1) with the gradual rise of inflation expectations, CPI related agriculture and other essential consumer goods sectors are still the main market of the whole year;
2) automobile, food and beverage, household appliances and other industries that are expected to benefit from the consumption promotion policy;
3) post epidemic recovery related offline economy related industries such as express logistics, catering, tourism, airport aviation and media;
4) textile and clothing, household appliances, light industry, etc. benefiting from the depreciation of RMB exchange rate.
Guosheng Securities: the emergence of new momentum is needed for further upward market, and the style will return to undervalued value and blue chip stocks
After three consecutive weeks of repair, the number of new low stocks and the proportion of vulnerable stocks have basically repaired from the extreme range to near the historical center, which also means that the oversold kinetic energy of A-Shares is gradually weakening. According to the law of historical experience, after the 300 point counterattack, the space for this round of oversold rebound is also basically fulfilled. After the oversold rebound, the market needs new momentum to rise further style will return to undervalued and blue chip stocks. In the industry, the consumer sector has obvious excess advantages in the next week to two months
