Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: monkeypox virus and smallpox virus belong to orthopox virus, and the impact of monkeypox epidemic needs to be further observed
Monkeypox virus and smallpox virus belong to the genus orthopox virus, but the symptoms are lighter than smallpox and the interpersonal transmission is weak (R0 is expected to be between 0.6 ~ 1 or lower). Historically, monkeypox outbreaks mainly occurred in Africa. In the past, individual cases in Europe and the United States had a history of living in Africa or were infected by animals from Africa. The monkeypox epidemic involving more than 100 people in Europe and the United States is different in that except for early cases, there is no history of living in Africa, suggesting that interpersonal transmission may occur locally or in other countries. Preliminary data from Europe show that most cases are MSM At this stage, no adverse changes have been found in the virus itself, and the impact needs to be further observed.
Monkeypox is a self limiting disease. It is not infectious within the incubation period of 5-21 days, and the symptom period generally lasts for 2-3 weeks. At present, there is no specific treatment for monkeypox, but vaccines and drugs for smallpox may still be effective for monkeypox. The CDC of the United States recommends smallpox vaccine for post exposure prevention of monkeypox. At the same time, it is expected to effectively control the epidemic by combining the existing drugs such as cidofovir, brincidofovir, tercovir and vaccinia immunoglobulin.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : there is no specific drug for monkeypox at present! Monkeypox incident once again aroused everyone's attention to the vaccine sector
Recently, monkeypox cases have been confirmed in many countries in Europe, America and Australia, with a total of more than 100 cases confirmed. The epidemic is a rare monkeypox epidemic outside Africa, which has been warned by the who or has been spread in the community. The United States and Spain have purchased hundreds of millions of dollars worth of monkeypox vaccine as emergency reserves.
At present, there is no specific drug for the treatment of monkeypox. At present, there is no specific monkeypox vaccine and corresponding therapeutic drugs in the world. However, because monkeypox virus and smallpox virus are close relatives, the vaccine against smallpox virus also has protective effect on monkeypox virus. Previous data obtained in Africa showed that the smallpox vaccine was at least 85% effective in preventing monkeypox. However, smallpox virus has disappeared in the 1980s. The follow-up population will no longer be vaccinated against smallpox. The immunity of individuals who have been vaccinated against smallpox has also decreased significantly after many years, and the protection ability against monkeypox virus is limited. In addition, the US FDA approved the first drug tecovirimat (ST-246) for the treatment of smallpox in 2018, which may also be effective for monkeypox.
From the perspective of detection, Shanghai Zj Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(688317) has monkeypox virus nucleic acid assay kit (fluorescence PCR method). By specifically detecting the nucleic acid fragment of monkeypox virus, the kit can be used for clinical or scientific diagnosis of related diseases caused by monkeypox virus infection Daan Gene Co.Ltd(002030) has a reserve of monkeypox virus related scientific research products, but there is no relevant certified reagent at present.
In addition, the monkeypox incident has once again aroused everyone's attention to the vaccine sector. We are strongly optimistic about the investment opportunities in the vaccine sector. According to the current severe disease rate, Omicron will probably be affected by flooding. With reference to the influenza vaccine market, the demand for vaccination has a certain sustainability, and the valuation is expected to be reshaped. It is suggested to pay attention to Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) (recombinant protein covid-19 vaccine EUA, approved heterologous sequential vaccination in Indonesia and China, acting as a continuous dose of HPV), Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) (A / h) (approved dose of single shot adenovirus vector covid-19 vaccine, China heterologous sequential vaccination booster needle, approved by who EUA), Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) (developed covid-19 vaccine with Aibo, which is currently in phase III of clinical trial) Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) (the highest neutralizing antibody titer ratio among inactivated vaccines in China).
At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) (varicella vaccine is the main contributor to the company's revenue at this stage. Varicella zoster virus belongs to herpesvirus family, and monkeypox belongs to DNA virus of orthopoxviridae family. The company's varicella vaccine can not prevent monkeypox; Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) has four technology platforms, including DNA vaccine technology platform).
Huachuang Securities: monkeypox epidemic in history! Symptoms, characteristics and transmission routes of monkeypox virus infection
Monkeypox epidemic in history. Monkeypox was first detected in a 9-year-old boy in Congo in 1970. Smallpox was eliminated in 1968. Since then, most cases have occurred in Congo, Central Africa and West Africa, and gradually increased.
Since 1970, 11 African countries have reported cases of human monkeypox. In an outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo from 1996 to 1997, the mortality was low, but the incidence rate was higher than usual, mainly due to the simultaneous outbreak of chickenpox and monkeypox. Since 2017, a large-scale monkeypox epidemic has broken out in Nigeria, with more than 500 suspected cases reported and more than 200 confirmed cases. The case fatality rate is about 3%. At present, there are still new cases.
In 2003, the first outbreak of monkeypox outside Africa occurred in the United States, mainly related to the infection of pet marmots imported from Ghana. The epidemic caused more than 70 cases of monkeypox. From 2018 to 2022, there were many cases of monkeypox infection among tourists from Nigeria to other countries, involving Israel, the United Kingdom, Singapore, the United States, etc.
Symptoms of monkeypox virus infection. Monkeypox virus is a zoonotic virus that can spread between animals and humans. Its symptoms are very similar to those of smallpox patients, including fever, headache, muscle pain, back pain, enlarged lymph nodes, fatigue and severe rash, but not as severe as smallpox.
Characteristics and transmission route of monkeypox virus. Monkeypox virus is a kind of enveloped double stranded DNA virus. It belongs to the genus orthopoxvirus of poxviridae. It has two different genetic evolutionary branches - Central Africa branch and West Africa branch. The case fatality rate of monkeypox virus is about 8.7%, of which the case fatality rate of West Africa branch is about 3.6%. The diseases caused by Central Africa branch in history are more serious, with a case fatality rate of about 10.6%, and are considered to be more infectious.
Monkeypox is mainly transmitted through direct contact with the blood, body fluid, skin or mucosal wounds of infected animals. Eating undercooked infected animals may also cause infection risk. Human to human transmission is mainly through contact with respiratory secretions, skin damage of infected persons or contaminated objects. Transmission through droplet respiratory particles usually requires long-term face-to-face contact. In addition, monkeypox virus can also be transmitted from mother to fetus through placenta. At present, it is not clear whether there is a sexual transmission route of monkeypox, which remains to be confirmed by more studies.
Guosheng Securities: monkeypox theme is expected to ferment without main line! Exposure of investment ideas
Monkeypox has fermentation at the weekend. It is estimated that the theme will continue this week. Covid-19 has swept the world for two and a half years. The market is sensitive to infectious diseases. If there is a new infectious disease, whether it is the theme or the main line must not be determined first. We should continue to follow up, but the market will respond first, and seek ideas or find relevance through the ports of detection, vaccine and medication.
The apparent explanation of CXO's poor performance seems to be due to decoupling expectations, but it is essentially based on medium and long-term cognitive bias, resulting in insufficient enthusiasm for the pharmaceutical growth track and low financial attention. The bad vaccine is caused by the events of individual vaccine companies. In fact, some companies in the vaccine industry have gradually entered the oversold range. In addition, the "National Health Plan" has also been issued recently to promote the rebound of more than five aspects of the "National Health Plan".
Investment ideas: first, continue to focus on the long-term waiting for the oversold opportunity of high-quality core assets provided by the volatile market, and make medium and long-term layout. Second, the impact of the demand epidemic is small and certain, the value is underestimated, the growth is high, there is no foundation at the bottom, and the market value of small and medium-sized stocks is oversold. Third, the recovery line should switch the pace of the recovery expectation game, and consider the choice under the expectation. Fourth, this week, because domestic covid-19 small molecules are expected to have milestone events, the game attribute is strong. Fifth, the monkeypox theme is expected to ferment without the main line. Sixth, this year is expected to be a big year for the reform of state-owned enterprises. Focusing on the second half of the year, we should start looking for the target. Seventh, from seeking new policies, we will continue to find targets from traditional Chinese medicine in the second half of the year.
Shenyin Wanguo Securities: it is recommended to pay close attention to the monkeypox epidemic. Many IVD companies in China have developed kits
It is suggested to pay close attention to the monkeypox epidemic. Many IVD companies in China have developed kits (not registered yet); The number of confirmed cases continues to decline, and the phased resumption of business and market in Shanghai is imminent. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the resumption of work and production and the related targets of covid-19 normalization. Recommended attention: Shanghai Zj Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(688317) Eyebright Medical Technology(Beijing) Co.Ltd(688050) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Jafron Biomedical Co.Ltd(300529) , etc.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) : medicine should adhere to the investment strategy of "manufacturing and innovation"
We suggest that investors should break the "core assets" and "sector concept" in order to look at the investment opportunities in the upstream and manufacturing links with the thinking of the industrial chain, and the innovative pharmaceutical machinery will continue to survive the fittest during the transition period. In 2022, the pharmaceutical industry should adhere to the investment strategy of "grasping manufacturing and welcoming innovation".
To be specific, it's suggested to focus on: 1) manufacturing sector: 1) manufacturing sector: API, cdmo, and so on: 1) manufacturing sector: a subdivision of API, and so on, with a focus on: 1) manufacturing sector: a subdivision of API, and so on: 1) manufacturing sector: a subdivision of API, and cdmo, and one of the suggestions to focus on: 1) manufacturing sector: a subdivision of API, and cdmo, and so on, and so on to make a point to focus on: 1) manufacturing sector: making sector: API, and cdmo, and so on, and so on the subdivision of API, and cdmo, and so on, and so on to highlight the subdivision of 1) 1) manufacturing sector: a subdivision of the API, and so on: 1) manufacturing sector: a subdivision of API, and so on, and so on, and so on, and so on to recommend ' Poten Environment Group Co.Ltd(603603) Poten Environment Group Co.Ltd(603603) Xinjiang East Universe (Group) Gas Co.Ltd(603706) 0370 Xinjiang East Universe (Group) Gas Co.Ltd(603706) 0370707070707070707070707070707 of forfor for the Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) etc.
2) upstream: upstream: pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, consumables, and other fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and so on: upstream: upstream: the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, consumables, and so on: the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and consumables, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and so on, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and consumables, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and so on, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and so on, and the fields of recommending Suzhou Jinhong Gas Co.Ltd(688106) 8810 Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) Iray Technology Company Limited(688301) , Qingdao Novelbeam Technology Co.Ltd(688677) etc., pay attention to Qingdao Haier Biomedical Co.Ltd(688139) etc.
3) innovation: equipment and pharmaceutical companies with international capabilities recommend Micro-Tech (Nanjing) Co.Ltd(688029) , minimally invasive medical treatment, etc., and pay attention to Beijing Balance Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688198) , Baiji Shenzhou, Xinda biology, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , kangfang biology, etc.
4) others: Other: consumer attributes, medical services, and innovative supporting industry companies; consumer attributes, medical services, and innovative supporting industry companies; recommending Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) ' \ , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , etc.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) : pay attention to the progress of epidemic prevention research and development and grasp the medical recovery after the epidemic
At present, the medical sector has relatively prominent investment value and relatively small investment risk. While taking into account the main line of epidemic investment (vaccines, testing and small molecule drugs), we suggest to shift the focus of allocation to the recovery of routine hospital medical treatment and consumer medical treatment.
In terms of investment suggestions, we are optimistic about the innovation and growth of medicine, pay attention to the head pharmaceutical enterprises in the bottom area, the characteristic pharmaceutical enterprises with large-scale expectation of new varieties, and the relevant R & D Progress of covid-19. It is suggested to pay attention to the recovery after covid-19 detection, routine medical treatment and consumer medical treatment.
Cinda Securities: "the national health plan of the 14th five year plan" was issued to improve and strengthen the health industry
The general office of the State Council issued the national health plan for the 14th five year plan, which aims to improve the health system. The plan includes but is not limited to ensuring people's health in the whole cycle, improving the quality of medical and health services, promoting the inheritance and innovative development of traditional Chinese medicine, promoting the innovative development of the pharmaceutical industry, and promoting the manufacturing and production of high-end medical equipment and health products. We believe that the plan is good for the related targets of traditional Chinese medicine, innovative medical equipment and assisted reproduction, and gives the industry a "good" rating.
