Recently, power semiconductor "big players" Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) (605111. SH) and Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) (300373. SZ) have successively released annual performance forecasts for 2021, all of which are "happy to mention" a performance growth rate of more than 100%.
In the past year, due to the rapid rise of new energy vehicles, the high prosperity of automotive power semiconductors has long been nothing new. Guided by the policy, the application of power semiconductors in the field of energy storage has also attracted great attention recently. Some analysts told the financial associated press that there is also a great demand for semiconductors in the field of energy storage, especially IGBT, which is the core device of energy storage inverter and photovoltaic inverter. Looking forward to 2022, most people in the industry believe that the rise of domestic manufacturers has the opportunity to alleviate the tension caused by IGBT's dependence on imports.
IGBT energy storage core device
"The main role of power semiconductors in the field of energy storage is voltage transformation, frequency conversion and alternating conversion. They are indispensable devices in energy storage applications, mainly IGBT, high-voltage MOSFET and SiC devices," Bu Rixin, an expert of whale platform and a partner of chuangdao consulting, told reporters. As the energy storage goes to the tuyere, the important role of power semiconductor in energy storage begins to be paid attention to.
At present, "double carbon" has become the "key word" of economic development. Since the National Energy Administration issued the guiding opinions on accelerating the development of new energy storage in July 2021, the energy storage policies issued by various regions have been continuously favorable. According to the data of the national energy administration, Debon securities predicts that by 2025, the installed capacity of new energy storage on China's user side will be 8.0gwh, and the CAGR will reach 68% in the next five years.
"Among power semiconductors, IGBT for energy storage inverter (also known as energy storage AC) is in greatest demand, and its principle is similar to that in photovoltaic inverter," Gong ruijiao, an analyst of Jibang consulting, told reporters. The cost of energy storage system is mainly composed of battery and energy storage inverter, which together constitute 80% of the cost of electrochemical energy storage system, of which energy storage inverter accounts for 20%.
Since the technology of energy storage inverter is similar to that of photovoltaic inverter, most of the competitors entering the energy storage inverter industry are photovoltaic inverter manufacturers. Therefore, Chinese enterprises that already have a high voice in the field of photovoltaic inverters, such as Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (300274. SZ), Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) (300763. SZ), have also successfully become the head enterprises of energy storage inverters.
In this case, IGBT, as the core device of inverter, has become a new "battleground". According to incomplete statistics by the reporter, more than ten A-share enterprises have expanded the production and capacity of IGBT in 2021.
supply still exceeds demand, and the performance of domestic manufacturers is worth looking forward to
"At present, the IGBT produced by our company is still in short supply," a person from Jiaen semiconductor company told the financial associated press. In the past year, "lack of core" has been a constant topic in the electronic market. As the core device in many key fields such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power and energy storage, the shortage of IGBT is self-evident.
After entering the second half of 2021, the supply and demand of IGBT is still tight. Affected by the epidemic abroad, many leading semiconductor enterprises have stopped production and limited production capacity. According to the Q3 market report of Fuchang electronics, the IGBT delivery time of Infineon, Italy France semiconductor, ansenmey and other large international manufacturers is still as long as 39-50 weeks, and the price is still rising.
Liu Xiang, deputy director of Kaiyuan Securities Research Institute, told reporters: "there will be a wave of Chinese enterprises in 2022, but it is expected that the overall tension between supply and demand will continue." according to the calculation of Kaiyuan securities, the global demand value of wind power, photovoltaic and energy storage for IGBT will increase from 8.67 billion yuan in 2021 to 18.25 billion yuan in 2025, with CAGR as high as 20.45%.
A private investor told reporters that IGBT is one of the most growth deterministic segments of the whole semiconductor track in 2022 in his eyes. In addition to the large number of new energy vehicles, the growth space of photovoltaic and energy storage is also huge.
According to the public information, as the technical R & D and industrial development of IGBT devices in China have just started, and IGBT devices are difficult in product design, chip manufacturing, packaging test and product stability, at present, the main suppliers of IGBT in China are some large international manufacturers, and the domestic supply is only 30%.
After 2021, the era of domestic manufacturers has quietly come, and IGBT manufacturers that have announced their expected performance have handed in gratifying answers. On January 9, Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) released the performance forecast for 2021. The company expects to make an annual profit of 719-794 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 90% - 110%. Among them, the revenue of IGBT products increased by 500% year-on-year, Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) explained that the company seized the opportunity of accelerating the domestic substitution of power semiconductors, actively explored the market, and the operating revenue increased rapidly; On the evening of January 11, Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) announced that the net profit in 2021 is expected to be 408-413 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 192.78% to 196.37%. The company said that it has successfully developed emerging markets such as photovoltaic energy storage and new energy vehicles and their key customers, achieved a large number of sales, and finally achieved a good growth in business scale and economic benefits.
In this case, Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) (603290. SH), Macmic Science & Technology Co.Ltd(688711) (688711. SH), Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) (688187. SH) and other Chinese leading IGBT enterprises are also worth looking forward to.
It is worth noting that even if domestic manufacturers are expected to fill some vacancies in 2022, it will still take time to "catch up". Analysts believe that at present, domestic IGBT products are mainly medium and low-end, and still lack strength in high-voltage and high-power energy fields, such as high-speed railway, inverter and other high-end IGBT products.
