Recently, Gao Cong, a researcher at Huatai futures, told reporters that the end of the policy since November 2021 has been confirmed. The dawn of the end of demand in the first quarter of 2022 is beginning to appear and will be continuously confirmed by meso and micro high-frequency data. It is expected that the overall domestic demand commodities will gradually stabilize in the first quarter and rebound further in the second quarter; In the first half of the year, it may gradually enter a new cycle of moderately small leverage, wide currency, wide credit and wide finance, which will strongly support the further shock and strength of commodity indexes from the second quarter to the second half of the year. In the short term, PPI may continue to fall in January.
In terms of China’s upstream supply, the supply of thermal coal is still in force, and policy control and high inventory still suppress the momentum of substantial price rise; In addition, the correction of double control policy and the restoration of normal power supply, and the further recovery of industrial production of upstream and midstream enterprises have alleviated the risk of continued upward inflation of domestic demand commodities to a certain extent.
In terms of downstream construction activities in China, he believes that the sales volume of excavators in China decreased by 43.5% year-on-year in December 2021, which was somewhat less than that in November. It is expected that the year-on-year decrease in January 2022 will be further reduced; It is expected that the relevant indicators of real estate will continue to stabilize gradually in the first quarter of 2022, and the capital construction will have a high probability of leading force.
