60% of the shares will be lifted soon. This bank stock welcomes the "big test"! 2.5 billion allotment just landed, how does the share price respond?

Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) is about to usher in the lifting of the ban on the largest number of restricted shares in the past three years.

The restricted shares lifted are the shares issued before the initial public offering of Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) A shares, which will be listed and circulated on January 17. According to the announcement of the bank, the restricted shares of A-Shares to be lifted this time are about 1.631 billion shares, accounting for 59.39% of Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) A shares and 36.17% of the total shares of the bank. Based on the closing price of the most recent trading day, the market value of the lifting of the ban has exceeded 7.2 billion yuan.

On the first trading day (January 14) after the release of the ban announcement, Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) shares fell, closing at 4.44 yuan / share, down 1.11%. Not long ago, on January 12, Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) announced the completion of the allotment issuance of "10 allotment 3" of a shares, with a subscription ratio of 94.87%, a allotment price of 3.20 yuan / share and a subscription amount of 2.502 billion yuan.

nearly 60% of the shares will be lifted

Recently, Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) announced that about 1.631 billion A-share shares will expire and be listed and circulated on January 17, 2022. The shares listed and circulated this time are the issued shares before the initial public offering of A-shares, accounting for 59.39% of the bank's A-share shares and 36.17% of the bank's total shares.

According to the data, Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange at the end of 2015 and the beginning of 2019. It is the second urban commercial bank in China to realize the listing of "a + H" shares. As of January 6, 2022, the bank had about 2.747 billion RMB common shares (A shares) listed in China, including about 2.142 billion shares with limited sales conditions. After the lifting of the ban, the number of restricted shares will be reduced to about 510 million shares.

According to the Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) announcement, 167 shareholders applied for lifting the restrictions on the sale of shares, including 22 corporate shareholders and 145 natural person shareholders. Among them, most of the natural person shareholders are directors, supervisors and senior managers holding shares of the bank, as well as individuals holding more than 50000 internal employee shares. After the expiration of the shareholding lock-in period, such natural person shareholders will continue to promise that the annual marketable shares shall not exceed 15% of the total holdings and 50% of the total holdings within five years.

However, the above trading restrictions on natural person shareholders after the lifting of the ban are difficult to reduce the pressure on Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) stock price caused by the lifting of the ban. Among the shares lifted this time, corporate shareholders accounted for as much as 98%.

Specifically, according to the information disclosed in the Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) third quarterly report, all the shares held by Qingdao Guoxin Industrial Co., Ltd., the second largest shareholder of the bank, were lifted, and the shareholding ratio of the company was 11.17%; The shares held by Qingdao Haier air conditioning Electronics Co., Ltd., Shandong SANLIYUAN economic and Trade Co., Ltd., Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Qingdao Hairen Investment Co., Ltd. and Qingdao Jifa Group Co., Ltd., which are also among the top ten shareholders of Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) common shares, have also been lifted, with a total shareholding ratio of 16.43%.

"bank stocks generally fell in the face of the test of lifting the ban." An analyst pointed out, "but the lifting of the ban does not mean that shareholders will immediately reduce their holdings. At present, the stock price of bank shares is poor, and shareholders may not have the motivation to reduce their holdings. In addition, if the future performance is expected to be better, shareholders may gradually reduce their holdings for a longer time, or take the initiative to choose to continue their holdings."

In fact, similar to the general situation of bank stocks, the stock price performance of Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) in the past two years is also relatively low. Since reaching a high of 6.8 yuan / share at the end of 2020, the bank's share price has fluctuated all the way down, hovering around the issue price of 4.52 yuan / share since the second half of last year. As of January 14 (the first trading day after the lifting announcement), the closing price of Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) A shares was 4.44 yuan / share, below the issue price.

It is worth noting that when the lifting announcement was issued, Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) A-share allotment and H-share allotment had not been completed. "The bank will promptly issue relevant announcements on the changes in the total amount of shares arising from the allotment." This line is displayed in the announcement.

final landing of allotment and fund-raising

As early as the beginning of last year, Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) has disclosed the share placement and fund-raising plan. It is planned to raise no more than 5 billion yuan from the original shareholders of A-Shares and H shares according to the proportion of no more than 3 shares per 10 shares to supplement the core Tier-1 capital.

After a year, Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) finally released the announcement of the placement and issuance results of "10 with 3" of A-Shares on January 12 this year. The number of valid subscription shares of A-Shares was 782 million, accounting for 94.87% of the placeable shares. The allotment price was 3.20 yuan / share, and the subscription amount was 2.502 billion yuan. These funds will be Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) fully used to supplement core tier 1 capital.

Previously, Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) said in the announcement that the bank needs to reserve a certain proportion of risk buffer capital on the basis of continuously meeting the minimum capital adequacy requirements of the regulatory authorities to further enhance its ability to resist risks. In addition, the growth of asset scale needs to match the growth of capital scale. If there is no capital supplement, It is expected that the capital gap will restrict the bank's future business development.

The bank's third quarterly report shows that by the end of September 2021, the bank's core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 8.35%, lower than the average data of commercial banks in the same period disclosed by the CBRC (10.67%).

In order to complete the allotment issue, Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) was suspended from January 5 to 12. On the day of resumption of trading on January 13, the bank's share price rose by 2.75%. The next day or affected by the lifting of the ban, the share price fell.

The day before the resumption of Trading (January 12), Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) also disclosed the 2021 performance express. Last year, the bank realized a net profit of 2.923 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.08%; The operating revenue was 11.136 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.65%. By the end of last year, the non-performing loan ratio of the bank was 1.34%, down 0.17 percentage points from the end of last year; The provision coverage rate was 197.42%, an increase of 27.80 percentage points over the end of the previous year.

Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) Wang Yifeng's team maintained the "buy" recommendation of Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) in the recently released research report. The team believes that "in recent years Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) has maintained a good credit growth, urban commercial banks have arranged financial management subsidiaries earlier, and the asset quality has been continuously consolidated. With the smooth implementation of the share allotment scheme, the core Tier-1 capital has been effectively supplemented to further consolidate the foundation for asset side expansion".

Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) Dai Zhifeng's team also slightly raised the profit forecast of Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) on January 16, It also said that the bank "is based in Qingdao, rooted in Shandong, has a high-quality and diversified shareholder structure, senior executives are selected and hired through marketization, has profound industry cognition and market-oriented management concept, continues to optimize the asset liability structure, has a good foundation for bottom recovery and development, and it is recommended to pay attention to it".

However, a Hong Kong banker pointed out that the current market still has doubts about the non-performing risks of regional small and medium-sized banks, especially the policy restrictions on the real estate industry, which have a great impact on the asset quality and credit growth of such small and medium-sized banks.

Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) the 2021 performance express shows that the bank's credit supply still maintains a high growth rate. By the end of last year, the bank's total assets and total loans had increased by 13.58% and 18.12% respectively compared with the end of the previous year; Total liabilities and total deposits increased by 13.99% and 15.17% respectively compared with the end of the previous year.

However, according to the Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) 2020 annual report and the 2021 interim report, the proportion of the bank's real estate loans (real estate industry + construction industry + individual housing loans) was 41.36% and 39.80% respectively, of which the individual housing loans exceeded the regulatory red line.

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