This week, the first four securities companies released the performance forecast for 2021. Among them, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) (601375. SH) has the fastest growth rate. It is expected that the net profit will increase by 360.20% – 436.90% year-on-year last year. Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) (601878. SH) has a slow growth rate, but it is also expected that the net profit will increase by 30% – 40%. Securities firm Yige Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) (600030. SH) expects to achieve a net profit of 22.979 billion yuan in 2021.
The reporter of Huaxia Times noted that although the performance forecast of securities companies was very bright, the secondary market did not buy it. After the release of the performance forecast, the share price fell to varying degrees.
For the deviation between the stock price of securities companies and the fundamentals, Anxin Securities believes that this reflects that the market is more inclined to evaluate the “future performance growth expectation” of securities companies, ignoring the fact that the business model of securities companies is gradually optimized.
Chen Jianghong, chairman of Burkin investment, told the Huaxia times: “at present, there are many diversified businesses in the securities sector and they are all profitable. The valuation is low. Everyone is looking forward to the securities companies to start the market, and if the securities companies can start the overall market, it is often the wind vane for the bull of the whole market.”
For the future trend, Anxin Securities believes that the deviation between “business model optimization” and “valuation decline” makes the brokerage stocks have the value of the left layout.
Chen Jianghong suggested short-term operation. She told the Huaxia times: “at present, the market is expected to cut interest rates, which is good for the formation of securities companies. We can focus on leading varieties. The sustainability of securities companies is often not very long. We should pay attention to that it is only suitable for short-term operation.”
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) pre increased by 4 times
On January 15, Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) (601456. SH) announced the performance forecast. The company expects to achieve a net profit of RMB 880 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 49.72%, and a deduction of non net profit of RMB 882 million, with a year-on-year increase of about 51.27%.
On January 12, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) issued the announcement of 2021 annual performance express. Last year, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) achieved a revenue of 76.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.8%; The net profit was 22.979 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.2%.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) it is estimated that the net profit last year increased by 376 million yuan to 456 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 360.20% – 436.90%. Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) it is estimated that the net profit realized last year will increase by about 488 million yuan to 650 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 30% – 40%.
The reporter of Huaxia Times noted that the reasons for performance growth can be summarized into two aspects. First, China’s capital market has developed well and created better external conditions. Secondly, the company firmly seized the opportunity and achieved better development of various businesses.
Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) said in the announcement that the overall activity of China’s securities market increased in 2021. The company actively grasped the market opportunities, continued to optimize the customer service system, significantly improved the capital scale and operation capacity, the pan wealth management system was taking shape, the business structure was more diversified, and the company’s profitability continued to increase.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) said that in 2021, China’s overall economic development showed a steady and positive trend, and China’s capital market developed vigorously. The company closely focused on the business strategic goal of serving the real economy, actively grasped market opportunities, continuously improved the company’s core competitiveness, and steadily developed all businesses, so as to realize the steady growth of net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) said that in 2021, the multi-level capital market was continuously improved and the capital market was booming. The company actively grasped the market opportunities and continuously improved its core competitiveness. The main businesses such as investment banking and primary and secondary market investment developed steadily.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that China’s economy overcame the impact of the epidemic, continued to improve, and the capital market developed vigorously. The company’s investment banking, asset management and other businesses developed in a balanced and steady manner in 2021.
the secondary market does not buy
The reporter of Huaxia Times noted that although the four securities companies predicted a significant increase in performance, the secondary market did not buy this report card.
From January 10, after the announcement of a substantial increase in advance, as of the closing on January 14, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) only increased by 2.27%, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) fell by 2.12% after the notice, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) fell by 5.05% on January 14, and Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) fell by 8.69% on January 13 and 14.
In fact, since the beginning of 2022, the entire securities sector has fallen by 4.11%, and the entire securities sector has fallen by 10.72% in 2021.
In sharp contrast, the prosperity of the securities industry continued to rise, and the core indicators reached an all-time high. In 2021, the total stock trading volume and average daily turnover of the A-share market increased by 24.3% and 24.8% respectively year-on-year, and the number and amount of IPOs reached a record high. As of December 31, 2021, the average daily balance of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges and financial institutions has increased by 36.5% compared with the whole year of 20 years. In terms of public funds, by November 2021, the scale of public funds had reached 25.32 trillion yuan, an increase of 27.3% over the end of the 20th century.
Does the secondary market not buy because the valuation of the securities sector is expensive? The reporter of Huaxia times found that the answer is No. As of December 31, 2021, the price to book ratio of securities firm II (Shenwan) was 1.73 times, and the valuation level was 62.55% of the historical five-year quantile, while the stock based transaction volume, two financial balance and IPO were 94%, 94% and 87% of the historical five-year quantile. The valuation level of the sector deviated significantly from the fundamentals.
In this regard, a senior Niu San told the Huaxia times: “the decline of securities companies has something to do with the fact that securities companies have kept circling money in the stock market through fixed growth and allotment since last year.” He further said that the performance of securities companies in 2021 was good, and there were also reasons for the low performance base of last year due to the large amount of stock pledged assets accrued by securities companies last year.
