Sub industry core weekly view
New energy: the “off-season price rise” of silicon materials exceeded expectations, the micro fundamentals of photovoltaic continued to improve marginally, and the performance of 22q1 in all links of the industrial chain could increase month on month. It is recommended to increase positions! Focus on: Bottleneck / tension / benefit of photovoltaic supply chain, elasticity of wind power parts / sea wind exceeding expectations.
Battery: the industrial chain companies successively released performance forecasts, and the performance of 4q21 in positive pole and other links increased significantly month on month, and the plate exceeded the market expectation. 4q21 is the node where the midstream performance begins to be realized, and 1q22 upstream lithium and other resource products gradually realize the performance. Pay attention to the changes in profit distribution caused by price transmission in the industrial chain; According to the recent grassroots research, compared with December 21, the industry output in January 22 increased by about 5% month on month. Focus on the links with strong global competitiveness, such as batteries, diaphragms, positive electrodes, structural parts, carbon black, aluminum-plastic film and other auxiliary materials with improved localization rate, negative electrodes and PVDF with tight balance between supply and demand.
Hydrogen energy and fuel cell: Henan and Hebei urban agglomerations have been approved for fuel cell demonstration application, forming a “3 + 2” demonstration pattern throughout the country; In 2021, the production and sales of FCV were 1777 and 1586 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 48% / + 35%. In 2022, the sales volume of the industry still depends on 10000 vehicles.
Power equipment and industrial control: the implementation of the 14th five year plan of the State Grid is imminent, the power grid investment accelerated in the fourth quarter, and the investment in distribution network, informatization, amorphous transformer, UHV and other links is expected to continue to strengthen. From November to December, the PMI improved and the demand recovered. In 2022, the industrial control demand was better, and the valuation cost performance of the sector was prominent.
Important industry events this week
New energy: polysilicon quotation of silicon branch stopped falling and turned up; Ningxia announced that the supporting scale of photovoltaic in 2022 is 4gw, requiring storage allocation; Jingke energy’s A-share IPO price is 50 billion yuan; Jingke energy 8GW high efficiency n-type TOPCON battery was put into operation.
Electric vehicles: Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , beiteri released 21 year performance forecast; The passenger car Federation announced the sales volume of passenger cars in 21 years; Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) announced the signing of a contract with a large overseas automobile enterprise.
Hydrogen energy: the first batch of leading demonstration application enterprises announced by Shanghai Economic and Information Technology Commission means that the implementation framework of Shanghai fuel cell demonstration urban agglomeration has initially taken shape; SDIC and Dongfeng commercial vehicle jointly plan to promote 1000 hydrogen energy heavy trucks in two years. Meanwhile, SDIC plans to invest 10 billion yuan in South China’s hydrogen energy industry base in the South China Sea.
Power equipment and industrial control: according to China Energy News, the 14th five State Grid plans to build UHV “24 AC and 14 DC”, with a total investment of 380 billion yuan. A total of 13 UHV lines “10 AC and 3 DC” are planned to be started this year; According to interface news, the State Grid plans to invest 501.2 billion yuan in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of about 8.84%.
Risk tips:
The price competition in the industrial chain is more intense than expected; The effect of policy adjustment and implementation is lower than expected; The global epidemic worsened more than expected.
