Core conclusion
Electrification in China, America and Europe continues to resonate, and the global sales volume is expected to reach 10 million in 22 years. The sales volume in China, Europe and the United States is expected to be 5.5 million / 3 million / 1.2 million respectively. China's electric vehicle market has gradually evolved from two ends to a spindle mature market; Excellent supply in the U.S. market is emerging one after another. With the support of policies, the electrification of economic market is expected to break out, and Tesla cyberrock and rivian are expected to activate pickup electrification; The electrification in Japan and South Korea has accelerated significantly. With the transformation of the three automobile giants in Japan, the penetration speed of electrification will be further improved.
Demand side: economy + experience + versatility, the market is fully activated. At present, more than 80% of China's annual automobile consumption demand is economic and experiential demand. From the perspective of 2C market, global electrification is penetrating into the economic market from medium and high-end experiential demand. From the perspective of price band, it gradually penetrates from the markets below 50000 and above 200000 to the spindle center of gravity market in the price range of 100000-200000. With the improvement of charging facilities, the popularization of high-voltage platform fast charging technology and the iteration of plug-in mixing technology, the 20% general demand market is gradually activated.
Supply side: the head company's capacity expansion & the iteration of vehicle models is accelerated, and the rise of new forces in vehicle manufacturing is accelerated. Tesla Sino German factory capacity expansion, 22 years of global sales is expected to reach 1.8 million; "Weixiaoli" will usher in the model year in 22 years, and et5et7p5 ideal X01 will be listed one after another; Byd Company Limited(002594) , great wall, etc. attack in both pure electricity and plug-in hybrid, continue to lead the electrification of the economic market, and traditional giants such as Volkswagen and Toyota accelerate the electrification transformation.
Technology: the technology iteration is accelerated, and the economy, intelligence and universality of electric vehicles are significantly improved. The popularization of pure electric platform and the application of DM-I and other hybrid plug-in and hybrid technologies continue to lead the electrification process of the economic market; The intelligent iteration is accelerated, new forces lead the intelligent competition, and the traditional main engine factory begins to make efforts; In terms of universality, high-voltage platform, fast charging and plug-in mixing technology have made rapid progress, and the permeability of power exchange station has been improved.
Investment advice
The electrification of the global automotive industry will reshape the global supply chain, further enhance the Chinese content in the global automotive industry chain, and reshape the supply system and ecology. From the perspective of localization and supply chain reconstruction, it is suggested to pay attention to:
(1) battery: focus on Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) with strong global competitiveness; At the same time, pay attention to the fields of carbon black, PVDF, aluminum plastic film and other auxiliary materials improved by localization; From the perspective of tight balance between supply and demand, pay attention to negative electrode, PVDF, carbon black, diaphragm, etc.
(2) parts: focus on: chassis intelligence ( Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) ), heat pump ( Zhejiang Dun'An Artificial Environment Co.Ltd(002011) ), chassis lightweight, integrated casting, etc; Areas where localization rate is improved: tires, controllers, micromotors, audio, etc.
(3) complete vehicles: in the future, both the concentration and the profit distribution of the industrial chain will be better than the existing pattern. From the perspective of vehicle cycle, it is recommended to pay attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) leading the electrification of the economic market and companies with strong intelligent R & D and data capabilities for a long time.
Risk tips
The risk of intensified competition in the whole vehicle industry; Price fluctuation of raw materials; Electric vehicle sales were lower than expected.
