Sub industry core weekly view
Vehicle: January February is the off-season, and the terminal data is greatly disturbed by holidays. The key observation months of terminal sales are March and April. Electric vehicles have been driven by spontaneous demand at the C-end. Recently, the subsidy decline and dual carbon policy worried by the market have little impact on the terminal; At present, the main market of global electrification is still China, the United States and Europe, but the market penetration of Japan and South Korea is also accelerating. It is suggested to pay attention to whether the sales volume in non China, the United States and Europe exceeds the expectation; We believe that in the future, both the concentration and the profit distribution of the industrial chain will be better than the existing pattern. Investment opportunities for complete vehicles: look at the model cycle in the medium term, and pay attention to companies with strong intelligent R & D and data capabilities in the long term.
Parts: TSMC announced its 22-year capex plan and downstream demand outlook. The prosperity of HPC and automotive semiconductors was higher than market expectations. Intelligence is an important starting point for OEMs to create product differentiation. Since the beginning of 22 years, the penetration rate of intelligent sub circuits is expected to accelerate. Focus on the direction with large marginal changes in permeability and localization rate. 1) Penetration promotion direction: intelligent chassis (air suspension, brake by wire, CDC shock absorption, etc.), thermal management heat pump, integrated casting, on-board HEPA, etc; 2) Direction of increasing localization rate: controller, micro motor, audio, tire, IGBT, etc.
Battery: Recently, industrial chain companies have successively released performance forecasts. The performance of 4q21 in positive pole and other links has increased significantly month on month, and the plate has exceeded market expectations. We believe that 4q21 is the node where the midstream performance begins to be realized, and 1q22 upstream lithium and other resource products begin to gradually realize the performance. Pay attention to the changes in profit distribution caused by price transmission in the industrial chain; According to the recent grassroots research, compared with December 21, the industry output in January 22 continued to increase by about 5% month on month, and the off-season was not light. We judge that the capacity constraint of high energy consumption is still strong; The plate recently pulled back to near pe30x in 22 years and began to enter the strong allocation value range. Focus on the links with strong global competitiveness, such as batteries, diaphragms, positive electrodes, structural parts, carbon black, aluminum-plastic film and other auxiliary materials with improved localization rate, negative electrodes and PVDF with tight balance between supply and demand.
Important industry events this week
1) Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) issue the performance forecast for 2021; 2) Beiteri released the performance forecast for 2021; 3) Henan demonstration city group led by Zhengzhou City and Hebei demonstration city group led by Zhangjiakou City have recently been approved; 4) The passenger car Federation announced the sales volume of passenger cars in December 21 and the whole year; 5) The price of Chinese head power battery enterprises is expected to increase by about 15 ~ 20% in 22 years, and that of second-line enterprises is expected to increase by about 5 ~ 15%; 6) Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) announcement: the company has become a batch supplier of chassis lightweight assembly products for two new platform projects of a new energy brand host factory in China; 7) Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) announcement: the company signed a contract with a large overseas automobile enterprise; Changzhou Jintan hongchuang packaging project has completed the industrial and commercial registration procedures.
Risk tips:
The sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected; The price competition in the industrial chain is more intense than expected; Risk of policy changes.
