In 2021, under the background of the rising price of major international raw materials, the chemical industry as a whole showed a high boom. According to the data of China stock market news choice, as of January 15, 2022, of the 429 Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies of Shenwan industry level 1 chemical industry, 65 companies have disclosed performance forecasts, of which 61 have achieved performance forecasts (pre increase, slight increase and turnaround).
"In 2021, the whole industry is in a state of all-round prosperity, and almost all important industrial products have ushered in good demand. With the rise of bulk commodities, it is in a state of both volume and price." In an interview with Securities Daily, Wang Meiting, a researcher of Bank Of China Limited(601988) Research Institute, said that the strong demand resonated with the relatively tight supply of the chemical industry in recent years, driving the rapid rise of chemical product prices and boosting the industry to form a high boom market in 2021.
However, whether the high industry boom can continue in 2022 is a common concern of the market. During the interview, a number of industry insiders and industry researchers held relatively optimistic expectations. "Stability" will be the common pursuit of the industry this year.
the market of several chemical varieties is booming
According to the data of China stock market news choice, as of January 15, of the above 65 listed companies that have disclosed the performance forecast for 2021, 53 have shown "pre increase" in performance, 4 have "slight increase" in performance, and the other four companies have turned losses into profits in 2021, only Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co.Ltd(002381) , Zhejiang Zhengguang Industrial Co.Ltd(301092) , Beijing Comens New Materials Co.Ltd(300200) The performance of Liao Ning Oxiranchem Inc(300082) 4 companies in 2021 is expected to decline compared with that in 2020, but all 4 companies also realized profits in 2021.
Among the 61 companies with promising performance, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ranks first temporarily with the expected net profit attributable to the parent of 6.8 billion yuan to 7.2 billion yuan; In terms of growth, among the 61 companies with good performance, 48 reported that the maximum growth limit of net profit attributable to the parent company exceeded 100%, of which Sichuan Hebang Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603077) reported a maximum increase of 79 times and Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) reported a maximum increase of 73 times. In addition, Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) also had a significant increase of more than 10 times.
According to the relevant forecast of the above companies, under the favorable cycle, the prices of multiple chemical varieties hit new highs in 2021, and the market of various chemical varieties of basic chemical products, including butyl octanol, glyphosate, acetic acid, urea and PVC, has been deeply interpreted; Under the "double carbon" strategy, the rapid growth of new energy industry has driven the rapid growth of the demand for upstream battery material products and photovoltaic materials, which has supported the performance of relevant companies.
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) said that the net profit attributable to the parent company of the company increased significantly compared with the same period in 2020, mainly benefiting from the increase of product sales prices. For example, the company's main products glyphosate, glyphosate, soda ash, ammonium chloride and glass benefited from the improvement of environmental protection requirements, the further clearing of backward production capacity caused by the epidemic, the restriction of production capacity expansion and the increase of downstream demand, So as to drive up the sales price and enable the company to obtain reasonable operating profit.
Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) said that with the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market, the sales volume and sales revenue of the company's carbonate series products supplying battery systems have increased significantly. Wuxi Acryl Technology Co.Ltd(603722) which also benefited from the "double carbon" strategy also said that due to the high prosperity of the wind power industry, the demand for polyether amine, as one of the molding materials of wind power blades, maintained a high growth. Due to the continuous rise of global crude oil prices and the limitation of polyether amine production capacity, the price of polyether amine products has been in a steady upward state last year.
Wang Meiting told the Securities Daily that in the past few years, due to the generally weak economic situation, the capital of various heavy asset industries, including chemicals, was insufficient and the new production capacity was insufficient. In 2021, against the background of the rise of international bulk raw materials, the strong demand and relatively tight supply formed a resonance, driving the rapid rise of the price of many varieties of chemicals.
Shen Meng, executive director of Xiangsong capital, also analyzed it in an interview with Securities Daily. "After the rise of commodity prices, the chemical industry has frequently raised prices, shifting the cost pressure to the downstream, ensuring the profit space of the industry itself, which is also the main reason for the chemical industry to make profits in 2021."
pay equal attention to capacity breakthrough and cost control
Industry procyclicality is an important supporting factor for performance. It also brings opportunities for the chemical industry in the state of "insufficient funds" for many years to enjoy procyclicality dividends and accelerate the adjustment and layout of the industrial chain in combination with its own characteristics.
According to the data of China stock market news choice, among the "reasons for changes in performance forecast" of the above 65 listed companies, in addition to indicating that the prices of their main products are running at a high level in the forward cycle, the vast majority also listed the reasons for the company's accelerated industrial layout, production structure adjustment and cost reduction and efficiency increase as important factors for the improvement of performance.
Among them, many companies, such as Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Anhui Huaertai Chemical Co.Ltd(001217) , Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , Anhui Annada Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(002136) , said in the performance forecast that new projects were put into operation during the reporting period, which helped the company's performance. Anhui Annada Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(002136) that is, during the reporting period, the iron phosphate market continued to boom, and the product supply was in short supply. The 50000 T / a battery grade iron phosphate expansion project of the company was completed and put into operation on schedule, and the output, sales volume, operating revenue and profit of iron phosphate increased significantly year-on-year.
A number of Listed Companies in Shandong, a major chemical industry province, are also well aware of the fact that profits realized simply by rising product prices will fall sooner or later, so they are also accelerating the layout of the industrial chain. Taking Zibo Qixiang Tengda Chemical Co.Ltd(002408) as an example, according to the reporter of Securities Daily, the company completed and put into operation the 100000 t / a unit of nitrile latex phase II in early 2021, and then started the propylene oxide project. In March, the company announced the expansion of the 200000 t / a maleic anhydride project, the completion and operation of the 200000 t / a MMA and supporting project phase II, and announced the expansion of the 80000 T / a methyl ethyl ketone project in June, The propylene oxide project started in early 2021 has realized the transportation and mobilization of the first imported core tower equipment in December.
Zibo Qixiang Tengda Chemical Co.Ltd(002408) the relevant person in charge said in an interview with reporters earlier that the company is now accelerating the construction of new projects such as PMMA, propane dehydrogenation, propylene oxide and isononanol on the basis of the steady development of the C4 industrial chain. The purpose is to aim at the field of fine chemicals and new chemical materials with high added value, further extend to the downstream high-end technology and implement high barriers, Integrated and diversified development strategy.
In addition, during the reporting period, many companies such as Hubei Zhenhua Chemical Co.Ltd(603067) , Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) realized the supplement, extension and strengthening of their own industrial chain through mergers and acquisitions or equity transfer of subsidiaries, so as to further expand the main business of the company.
At the same time, many companies that have achieved high performance growth said that focusing on stable and high yield, energy conservation and consumption reduction, strict basic management and further improving the level of fine control are also very important for chemical enterprises to improve quality, efficiency and profitability.
maintain optimistic expectations but focus on stability
Can the chemical industry continue this high boom in 2022?
"The recent chemical industry market is indeed not as good as that in 2021, because China's economic situation has also slowed down significantly." Wang Meiting told the Securities Daily. However, Wang Meiting believes that the state is taking a series of policies to boost the economy, and maintaining economic growth this year is the primary task. Therefore, coal, chemical and crude oil chemical industries are expected to have more optimistic expectations in 2022 than in 2021.
"It is expected that the energy control indicators, data and raw material constraints will not be as strict as last year. Therefore, it is expected that the constraints on energy consumption and carbon emission faced by the chemical industry this year will be significantly weaker than last year. With the decline of coal demand, enough raw material space will be released, and the prices of coal chemical industry, crude oil, chemical industry and other raw materials will be relatively stable." Wang Meiting said.
Recently, several research institutions have also predicted the development pattern of various chemical products in 2022. On the whole, most of them maintain optimistic expectations and focus on stability.
For example, in the titanium dioxide industry, the titanium dioxide market is in a business cycle in 2021, and the products are in short supply. A new round of titanium dioxide price increase since the end of 2021 is still on. According to the analysis of Shengang securities, the rising price of titanium dioxide will thicken the performance of relevant companies. Considering that the supply and demand of titanium dioxide is still good, it is expected that the industry boom pattern is expected to continue in 2022. At the same time, with the gradual withdrawal of small and medium-sized enterprises, the titanium dioxide industry will usher in an accelerated reshuffle, and the scale advantage of industry leaders will become more prominent.
East Asia Qianhai securities, in combination with the industry situation of phosphorus chemical industry in the first three quarters and quarters of 2021, expects that the annual report of phosphorus chemical industry in 2021 will perform well as a whole. At the same time, it believes that the industry is more optimistic about the development of phosphorus chemical industry in 2022 as a number of phosphorus chemical enterprises have disclosed their layout in new energy business.
In addition, new chemical materials are one of the important directions for the future development of the chemical industry. Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) according to the analysis, under the background of carbon neutralization, the traditional chemical industry ushers in a new round of supply side reform, the growth rate of downstream demand slows down, the future competition is mainly reflected in the integration construction, with cost and efficiency as the main competition threshold, and the long market share in the industry is expected to be further improved. The downstream of the field of new materials is still in the stage of rapid growth. With the improvement of China's R & D capacity and service capacity and the support of relevant policies, the new chemical materials industry will usher in an accelerated growth period.
