In 2021, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) invested 100 billion to build a factory, and then semiconductor giant TSMC announced its 40 billion investment plan at the performance meeting.
The expansion of semiconductor industry giants indicates that the chip market may continue to flourish in the new year.
Some industry analysts told the financial associated press that the semiconductor supply and demand market will be alleviated to a certain extent in 2022, but the demand for advanced processes in 5g / HPC / aiot and other markets is still strong. The person also believes that although the mass production of 3nm chips is imminent, it has a limited short-term impact on the chip market pattern.
TSMC’s $40 billion “lack of core” may continue
In 2021, “core shortage” has always been the main theme of the whole electronic industry. As the “king of foundry” of chips in the world, TSMC’s revenue has also reached a new high. In 2021, TSMC’s net profit after tax was NT $596.54 billion (US $21.7 billion), a year-on-year increase of 23.4%, a record high. For the first year’s performance in 2022, the company is even more optimistic. It believes that it is expected to achieve revenue of US $16.6-17.2 billion in the first quarter of this year, with a median month on month increase of 7.4%, exceeding the previous expectations given by most institutions.
According to the current forecasts of all parties, the chip market demand is expected to remain high in 2022. Cinno research analyst told the financial Associated Press, “electric vehicles, 5g and the Internet of things are the main incremental markets of the chip industry, among which the market demand for PMIC, WiFi, RF and MCU has increased significantly”. Jibang consulting expects that the production rate of 12 inch wafer production line will remain above 95% in 2022.
Wafers are still tight, and TSMC continues to expand production. Wei Zhejia, CEO of TSMC, said that the company expects to spend 70-80% of the annual capital expenditure of US $40-44 billion on R & D of advanced process technologies of 2nm, 3nm, 5nm and 7Nm in the new year.
The above analysts further told reporters: “compared with 21 years, the overall chip market pays more attention to mature processes, and the capacity utilization rate of mature processes will still be high. At the same time, the acquisition ability of chip design manufacturers to mature process capacity is more critical.”
At present, the revenue composition of TSMC has changed, and the contribution of advanced process products below 16nm has gradually increased. In the fourth quarter, the revenue of TSMC’s advanced process products below 16nm has reached 63%, of which the revenue proportion of 5nm has rapidly increased to 23% and that of 7Nm is 27%.
advanced production capacity release process of mainland enterprises still lags behind
Turning to the mainland market, CINNO Research analyst told reporters: “some mainland enterprises in 2021, the Chinese mainland wafer manufacturers will drive 22 years of wafer foundry capacity gradually released, such as Huahong Wuxi 2022 12 inches monthly capacity is expected to reach 80K, while the core of Shenzhen, Tianjin, Beijing and other production lines have further improved.” According to cinno research data, the production capacity of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) and Huahong group is expected to exceed 1.3 million pieces / month (equivalent to 8 inches) in 2022, which plays a positive role in the overall semiconductor supply and demand
Some Chinese chip companies that have announced their results have also increased significantly. On the afternoon of January 16, Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) (002371. SZ) announced that the operating revenue in 2021 was expected to be 8.478 billion to 10.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40% to 80%, and the net profit after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 690 million to 887 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 250% to 350%, The company said that the reason for this achievement was “the strong demand of downstream customers of the company’s main business, and the continuous growth of semiconductor equipment and electronic components business”. In this case, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) (688981. SH), Huahong semiconductor (01347. HK), shengmei Shanghai (688082. SH) and other mainland semiconductor enterprises deserve to look forward to.
However, it is worth noting that although the pace of production and capacity expansion last year has never stopped, mainland enterprises still have a weak voice in the most scarce advanced process chips. A chip expert once told reporters: “it normally takes 3-4 years to build a wafer factory. For 6-inch and 8-inch low-end chip wafer factories, the time is shorter, but it also takes 1-2 years.” Therefore, it still takes time for domestic chips to catch up. IC Insight predicted that the self-sufficiency rate of Chinese mainland manufacturers was about 10% until 2025.
In an interview in 2021, manufacturers such as Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Kingsemi Co.Ltd(688037) said that the company can provide equipment for the production of process chips of 14nm and above. At present, the mainland chip leader Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) can not mass produce chips with advanced processes such as 7Nm / 5nm. It is gratifying that Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) IPO on the science and innovation board finally raised 52.32 billion yuan. Among them, 40% of the funds are used for the 12 inch chip SN1 project and 20% for the reserve funds for advanced and mature process R & D projects, which may change the pattern of domestic chips.
In addition, Wei Zhejia, CEO of TSMC, said at its performance meeting that the new generation of 3nm process technology will be mass produced as scheduled in the second half of 2022, and it is reported that the product R & D is for Intel’s “big order”.
In this regard, Cinno research analyst told the Associated Press: “Compared with the mature process, 3nm process has relatively limited applications and is mainly used for high-end intelligent machines SOC, CPU and GPU. Moreover, TSMC 3nm is only produced in small quantities in 2h22, and a large number will have to wait until 2023. Although Samsung’s trial production of 3nm is early and will start in 1H22, it has a long learning curve and the starting volume is expected to be in 2023. 3nm is relatively expensive to use, and the scale of production in 2022 is small, which is very important for the current chip The overall market pattern has limited impact. “
