The stock index fell 1.63% this week. How will A-Shares run next week? We have summarized the latest investment strategies of major institutions for investors’ reference.
CITIC strategy: the starting point of the market in the first half of the year is approaching
The collapse of high-level conglomerates is the main reason for the sharp fluctuation of market sentiment at the beginning of the year. It is expected that investors\’ confidence in steady growth policies and economic stabilization will continue to strengthen, and market sentiment will be boosted with the redefinition of the main line of steady growth. The starting point of the market in the first half of the year is approaching, and it is expected to appear before the festival. First of all, the rapid adjustment of high-level conglomerates has induced investors to “cut high to low” and reduce positions. Concerns about the strength of steady growth policies have induced mutual position exchange, resulting in the main line confusion in the first half of the month. However, the market has passed the most panic point of sentiment, and what is missing is the consensus in the main line direction. Secondly, we expect that the centralized landing of last year’s economic data will make the market form more consistent expectations for this year’s steady growth, the formation of policy synergy is on the way, and the market’s economic expectations for 2022 will be gradually revised. Finally, incremental funds began to stabilize and resume inflow. The clarification of the main line of stable growth will significantly improve market sentiment. It is expected that the starting point of the market in the first half of the year before the festival. It is suggested to continue to focus on the “three low positions”.
Haitong strategy: why will the spring market not be absent?
At the end and beginning of each year, investors are very concerned about and look forward to the spring market. Looking back on the performance of A-Shares at the end of the year and the beginning of the year since 2002, we can find that the spring market has changed year by year, but there will be differences in the start-up time and increase. However, the overall market performance has been weak since mid December, and the hot new energy, military industry and other sectors in the early stage have been significantly adjusted. After new year’s day, the long-awaited good start has not appeared, and the major indexes have performed poorly. Since the beginning of the year 22 (as of 22 / 01 / 14), the Shanghai stock index has fallen 3.3%, the CSI 300 has fallen 4.3%, the CSI 500 has fallen 3.8% and the gem index has fallen 6.1%. The reason behind this is that the market still has doubts about whether the policy can hedge the pressure of economic downturn, but we believe that the current steady growth policy is being intensively implemented. At the same time, drawing lessons from previous policy easing cycles, the market will perform well with the continuous overweight of policies.
Monarch strategy: wait for the Spring Festival at the bottom
This week, the market continued the downward trend of shock, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.63%. Under the convergence of negative factors, the market will still face phased pressure. However, considering that the current market transaction congestion is significantly lower than that at the beginning of 2021, we believe that negative feedback is difficult to form → the market has a bottom, and the bargain hunting layout is waiting for the Spring Festival. 1) At present, the negative factors are intensively interpreted: the negative disturbance at the denominator end is the core contradiction of the recent market. On the one hand, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in December released a strong hawkish signal. Affected by this, the yield of 10-year US bonds rose rapidly. On the basis of the market’s consistent expectation of China’s broad currency in the first half of the year, the impact of overseas disturbance on market liquidity expectation has been marginally amplified. On the other hand, the superposition of real estate credit risk and Omicron exacerbates the pressure of epidemic control in China, so that the risk preference at the denominator is still suppressed. 2) However, the market has a bottom: the current market congestion is low → the possibility of stampede is low → the market has a bottom, which is not comparable with the market in February 2021. After the Spring Festival, the negative factors with overseas liquidity risk as the core will be gradually implemented and digested. At the same time, with the successive completion of the change of provincial Party and government organs, the steady growth policy will be gradually promoted and strengthened, and the market is expected to gradually recover. On the whole, bargain hunting layout years ago, waiting for the Spring Festival.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) strategy: stabilize the formation, defend and counterattack
U.S. debt and U.S. equity turned into shock this week, and the market may have gradually digested the expectation that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates and shrinking tables within this year and accelerate monetary normalization. In the last round of the Fed’s interest rate increase and table contraction process, after the first interest rate increase and table contraction accelerated, it had the greatest impact on the global stock market and capital liquidity. Therefore, before the market expects the fed to announce interest rate hike in March, investors’ fear of liquidity tightening may be in a relatively stable state, and the market will also usher in a window period of time. In terms of internal environment, liquidity has improved marginally recently. Next Monday, 500 billion MLF will expire. We are concerned about the possibility of renewing the interest rate cut. Credit easing and structural monetary policy are worth looking forward to. In the two weeks since this year, the cumulative net inflow of northbound funds has exceeded 13 billion, of which the allocation type has reached 11.4 billion, and the net inflow has been into the new energy sector for nine consecutive trading days. At present, the proportion of turnover of popular tracks has dropped significantly. The continuous verification of the high prosperity of the plate by superimposing the performance forecast is accumulating strength to regain the rise.
Guosheng strategy: is this round of “cutting high and cutting low” over?
With the full force of the steady growth policy, the credit conditions have been stabilized in a real sense, and it is necessary to further relax the policy in the future. In the short term, the liquidity risk of real estate enterprises remains, and the superposition of the impact of the high base in 2021 may cause periodic disturbance to the steady growth sector; However, from the perspective of fundamental trends, the current is the initial stage of the comprehensive development of the steady growth policy. The credit conditions have been stabilized in a real sense, and the rise of value may only be the beginning. With the digestion of growth track valuation, it is expected to open a wave of resonance market after the Spring Festival, and steady growth is still the largest beta main line in the next quarter.
Xingzheng strategy: “mini version 2014” is brewing, and the timing depends on the wide credit process
The market fluctuation this week is mainly due to the fluctuation of policy expectations, poor social finance data in December, and rising concerns about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase or even contraction. Similar to the initial stage of the bull market in 2014, there were adjustments in August and late September due to the lower than expected macro data. In October, there was a significant correction due to the superposition of factors such as the announcement of the withdrawal of qe4 by the Federal Reserve and the extension of Shanghai Stock connect. However, the market is gradually established in the hesitation of the market and the rise of the index. At present, we believe that a wave of market similar to “mini version 2014” is brewing, and its timing depends on the wide credit process.
Western strategy: how to understand the changes in market style since this year
At present, it is still a calm period after “winter agitation”. Due to the pre positioning of monetary and fiscal policies, the emergence of macro liquidity inflection point and the performance vacuum period after the release of the third quarterly report, the market has been restless. At present, with the realization of macro logic, listed companies return to the performance disclosure period, and the market is returning to calm. On the whole, there is no systemic risk in the market, but it still needs to wait for the market to recover after the Spring Festival. From the perspective of market structure, since the beginning of the year, the market style has begun to change greatly, especially some popular tracks have dropped greatly, while the performance of consumer goods and stable growth related industries is better. We believe that the core of such changes lies in the change of incremental funds this year, which is also the key to understand the main line of the market this year.
Livelihood Strategy: how long will it take for the value to return
The real opportunities and turning points of the market are at several key nodes: the confirmation of wide credit (non wide currency), the confirmation of fund liability side disturbance and the return of strong stocks to the historical average level. It should be noted that there is no “perfect bottom” in the market, which means that when some of the above factors are available, it should be a good time to intervene. Investors who need to stay in the market should gradually carry out structural adjustment and grasp a more certain path in demand recovery (inflation itself). We believe more in the scenario that inflation certainty will be stronger than demand itself when demand stabilizes and picks up, and the two will jointly drive the return of value. Recommended layout: nonferrous metals (aluminum, copper and gold), crude oil chain (oil service and oil transportation), real estate, banking, coal and electricity. The theme recommends Rural Revitalization and county consumption (brand clothing and digital government affairs).
