This week, the Shanghai index fell 1.63%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 1.35% and the gem index rose 0.73%. How to go in the future market of a shares? Look at what the agency says:
① Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the starting point of the market in the first half of the year is approaching, and is expected before the festival
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the collapse of high-level holding stocks is the main reason for the sharp fluctuation of market sentiment at the beginning of the year. It is expected that investors\’ confidence in steady growth policies and economic stabilization will continue to strengthen, and market sentiment will be boosted with the redefinition of the main line of steady growth. The starting point of the market in the first half of the year is approaching, and it is expected to appear before the festival. First of all, the rapid adjustment of high-level conglomerates has induced investors to “cut high to low” and reduce positions. Concerns about the strength of steady growth policies have induced mutual position exchange, resulting in the main line confusion in the first half of the month. However, the market has passed the most panic point of sentiment, and what is missing is the consensus in the main line direction. Secondly, it is expected that the centralized landing of last year’s economic data will make the market form more consistent expectations for this year’s steady growth, the formation of policy synergy is on the way, and the market’s economic expectations for 2022 will be gradually revised. Finally, incremental funds began to stabilize and resume inflow. The clarification of the main line of stable growth will significantly improve market sentiment. It is expected that the starting point of the market in the first half of the year before the festival. It is suggested to continue to focus on the “three low positions”.
② China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) : popular tracks are accumulating strength to regain the rally
The China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) strategy believes that in terms of internal environment, liquidity has been marginally improved recently. Next Monday, 500 billion MLF will expire. We are concerned about the possibility of renewing the interest rate cut. Credit easing and structural monetary policy are worth looking forward to. In the two weeks since this year, the cumulative net inflow of northbound funds has exceeded 13 billion, of which the allocation type has reached 11.4 billion, and the net inflow has been into the new energy sector for nine consecutive trading days. At present, the proportion of turnover of popular tracks has dropped significantly. The continuous verification of the high prosperity of the plate by superimposing the performance forecast is accumulating strength to regain the rise.
③ Haitong strategy: adjust the spring market trend at the beginning of the year
Haitong strategy believes that people’s doubts about the spring market are mainly due to two concerns: one is that it is difficult for policies to hedge the downward pressure on the macro economy, and the other is that the micro capital is no longer abundant at the beginning of the year. The machine stock believes that: ① the steady growth policy has been intensively implemented. With the promotion of historical steady growth policy, the market will eventually rise. ② In the first quarter, there are often more funds entering the market, which comes from the peak season of employee year-end bonus distribution and asset management product distribution. ③ The adjustment at the beginning of the year does not change the market trend in spring, the structure is balanced, and attention is paid to the undervalued large finance + new and old infrastructure with policy force.
④ Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) : resurgence of anti epidemic, focus on detection innovation cdmo industrial chain
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) believes that under the continuous fluctuation of the global epidemic, the logic of global industrial transfer is expected to continue to accelerate. On the premise of deterministic high growth of the performance of local cdmo enterprises in 2022, the investable value of even longer dimensions in 2023 will gradually highlight. In the case of repeated outbreaks and continuous evolution of mutants, we can still focus on tracking the possibility of excess returns brought by detection, innovation and CXO related track enterprises through multi-dimensional breakthrough such as R & D, channel and internationalization.
⑤ Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) : the market is still in a “cooling off period” and the overall recovery will be after the Spring Festival
Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) said that with the realization of macro logic in the current market, listed companies return to the performance disclosure period, and the market is returning to calm. On the whole, there is no systemic risk in the market, but it still needs to wait for the market to recover after the Spring Festival. This year’s incremental funds come from macro allocation funds. In terms of transaction style, we will pay more attention to the macro logical deduction of “grand narrative”. Agriculture and steady growth with good performance at the beginning of the year are concrete manifestations. Throughout the year, with the normalization of economic fluctuations, the focus of the market this year will return to the denominator.
