Current investment tips:
Investment analysis opinion: the sector continued to callback this week, mainly due to the dual concerns of the market about policies and fundamentals. Baijiu entered the validation period of mobile sales, and it suggested that the sales performance of Spring Festival should be focused. At the same time, the Q2 report reversal of Volkswagen products has been the consistent expectation, and the transmission of price increase and demand improvement have yet to be verified, but the inflection point of some raw material costs has been obvious. It is suggested to layout on the left. The idea is to give priority to cost determination and demand improvement. Looking forward to 22 years, we are optimistic about the nationalization of traditional sub high-end and the expansion of high-end. We believe that the high-speed sub high-end (500-800 yuan) is the track with the best growth in the next five years, with a CAGR of about 20-25% and a CAGR of about 10% - 15% for the traditional sub high-end. High end wine is the best track for long-term and stable growth, with strong certainty. Looking forward to 22 years, we are optimistic about two types of varieties throughout the year: 1. High growth, strong certainty and moving towards national sub high-end brands, first promoting Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and paying attention to Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) ; 2. Brands with upward fundamentals and expected to accelerate growth are the first to promote Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , with emphasis on Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) . In addition, focus on Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) . In terms of popular products, the current epidemic situation is repeated, and the transmission of price increase of popular products takes time. The inflection point is expected to be 22q2. The Spring Festival is a key period for verifying demand and price increase transmission. For targets with high cost reduction and price increase flexibility, as well as growth targets with more callback, it is recommended to deploy on the left. Looking forward to 22 years, we are optimistic about the performance certainty of dairy and beer, and the elastic target under the recovery of demand and the relief of cost pressure; Long term optimistic about companies with broad growth space and excellent management. Buy first to determine the performance, and then look at the long-term growth. First: Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) ; Key recommendations: Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) ; Focus on Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) .
Baijiu plate: this week the plate continued to callback, the main reason: 1, the market once again worried about the consumption tax landing; 2. The expectation of direct price increase in Maotai at the beginning of the year failed; 3, the epidemic is repeated, and the market is worried about Baijiu selling. 4. After rising in the fourth quarter, the valuation of leading companies has been 40 times, which is not cheap.
For the above concerns, we believe that: 1. The specific contents of whether, when and adjustment of consumption tax are uncertain, which is difficult to predict accurately; 2. We have always stressed that it is unlikely that Maotai will directly raise the price at the end of 21 or the beginning of 22, but Maotai is still expected to boost the ton price by means of direct sales increment and price increase of non-standard products in 22. At present, Maotai has directly raised the price of vintage wine and export Maotai, and launched super high-end products and rare Maotai, which can boost the ton price. In 22 years, Maotai will further promote the market-oriented reform of channel marketing and price system. It is expected that after the reform is completed, Maotai will have the conditions to directly transfer out the factory price, so as to help Maotai complete the objectives of the 14th five year plan. Combined with channel feedback, the current Maotai payment has reached February, accounting for about 25%. In February, the quota is still being delivered, and some small businesses have been delivered. Compared with 21q1, the 22q1 Zodiac Maotai was launched in advance. Dealers can implement the unscheduled prices of non-standard products such as zodiac, boutique and year, and the unscheduled quota is higher than that of last year, which is expected to contribute to the reported ton price. 3, since the outbreak, the liquor sales rhythm and the report base of the enterprises have changed greatly. But the long term demand for Baijiu Baijiu, especially the famous liquor, is relatively high, and the epidemic has little effect on its annual demand. At present, the Spring Festival is approaching the outbreak of the epidemic. The epidemic is characterized by multiple eruptions. Especially in Henan, Baijiu is a big consumer of liquor consumption. It is expected that there will be some influence on the Spring Festival sales. However, from the consumption scenario, the demand for the gift of the famous liquor is basically unaffected. It is expected that the small gatherings will not be greatly affected in the areas where there is no serious epidemic. The banquet will have a certain effect but will be repaid in the future. The epidemic situation also existed in the Spring Festival of 21 years, but the Spring Festival sales of famous wines were not greatly affected. Therefore, we believe that there is no need to worry too much about the dynamic sales of famous wines in the Spring Festival of 22 years. After two weeks of adjustment since the beginning of the year, the valuation of the sector has generally dropped. According to the 22-year valuation, Maotai is less than 40x, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is less than 30x, Laojiao is about 30-35x, Yanghe is about 25X, and the secondary high-end has generally dropped to close to 40x. We believe that from the perspective of the whole year, the current valuation of head enterprises has been cost-effective, and it is recommended to gradually add it.
Price update of high-end liquor: this week, Maotai rated 3300 yuan for boxes, 2800 yuan for bulk bottles, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) 970 yuan, and Guojiao 1573 910 yuan.
Food sector: since the beginning of the year, food companies have generally callback, mainly due to the market speculation on the theme of price increase in the fourth quarter, the valuation is generally high, and it takes time for price increase transmission and demand recovery. Entering the peak season in January, focus on: 1. Price transmission of price increasing varieties; 2. Evaluate the demand recovery during the Spring Festival peak season. Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) released the performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 3.15 billion in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 43%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 2.194 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21%. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter was -461 million, compared with -777 million in the same period last year, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of -1022 million and -862 million in the same period last year. In 21 years, the company confirmed the land compensation at one time and increased the net profit by 436 million. The annual sales volume is expected to increase by 2% and the sales volume of main brands by more than 10%. The company has raised the price of products by products and regions. The core driving force for future growth still depends on the upgrading of product structure. Toly Bread Co.Ltd(603866) released the performance forecast. In the 21st year, the revenue increased by 6%, the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 14%, and the net profit in the fourth quarter decreased by 0.5%, which is in line with market expectations. In the fourth quarter, it is still affected by the epidemic, and some consumption scenarios and production capacity are limited. We pay attention to the improvement in the past 22 years. Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) the recent adjustment is relatively large, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic. It is expected that in the fourth quarter, the company will increase subsidies for opening stores and franchisees, strive to improve the income scale, and the profit side will be suppressed by expenses and costs. However, the impact of the epidemic is phased. The advantages of the company in supply chain, management ability and scale are still accumulating and expanding, and it is optimistic about the growth space of the company's long-term income and profit.
Risk tips: food safety issues; The economic downturn affects the demand for Baijiu and popular products. Repeated epidemics lead to the lack of consumption scenes
