on January 14, three listed coal enterprises disclosed a “gorgeous” performance forecast for 2021. Among them, Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) is the “pre increase king” of the performance growth rate of coal enterprises in 2021 so far, and the net profit is pre increased by 455.84% year-on-year.
According to the statistics of the reporter of E company, up to now, there are 6 listed coal companies that have disclosed the performance forecast for 2021, all of which have increased significantly in advance. From the logic of price increase in the industry last year, it is expected that most coal enterprises will successively disclose their beautiful performance in 2021.
It is worth mentioning that institutional researchers also used the words of “sensibility” in the Research Report of the coal industry, saying that the phenomenon of coal shortage is common in 2021, and the coal price is unprecedented in history. 2021 is an extraordinary year for the coal industry.
according to the data of China stock market news choice, the cumulative maximum increase of coal index (000820) in 2021 is about 96%.
last year’s sharp rise in coal prices was the main reason for the advance increase
In the disclosed advance increase announcement of coal enterprises, the increase of coal price in 2021 is the first reason for the advance increase.
The performance forecast was disclosed on Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) 14. It is estimated that the net profit in 2021 will be about 4.868 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 455.84%. The increase is due to the increase of China’s coal market price in 2021 and the increase of the company’s commercial coal sales; The joint-stock company Tongxin coal mine has good benefits, which has greatly increased the investment income of the company.
China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) it is estimated that the net profit in 2021 will be 11.77 billion yuan – 14.38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 99.4% to 143.6%. In 2021, the sales price of main products rose sharply, the company made every effort to increase production and sales, ensure energy supply, scientifically control costs, and confirm the increase of investment income of joint-stock enterprises, which greatly increased the company’s performance year-on-year.
China Coal Xinji Energy Co.Ltd(601918) it is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.429 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 186.7%. The main reason for the sharp increase of the company’s profit is that it is affected by the increase of commercial coal sales and the rise of coal price.
It is noteworthy that the business data provided by the China Coal Xinji Energy Co.Ltd(601918) announcement shows that the company’s annual sales of commercial coal last year was 16.9007 million tons, an increase of 1.461 million tons year-on-year; The annual comprehensive selling price of commercial coal was 622.97 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 192.11 yuan / ton.
In addition to the above three listed companies, three other coal enterprises disclosed the pre increase announcement in 2021 earlier, and their performance was also dazzling.
It is estimated that in 2021, the revenue of Huanneng, which is mainly engaged in coal circulation, will be 52.132 billion to 62.132 billion, an increase of 73.40% to 106.67% over last year; The net profit was 725 million yuan to 900 million yuan, an increase of 44.18% to 78.88% over the previous year; The net profit deducted from non profits was 680 million yuan to 855 million yuan, an increase of 39.90% to 75.79% over the same period last year.
Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) it was announced on January 7 that the company’s pre profit in 2021 was 2.5-3 billion yuan, an increase of 259.54% – 331.44% over the same period of last year (after adjustment). High level operation of coal coke market during the reporting period; There is basically no epidemic situation in the region where the company is located. The coking project and ethylene glycol cogeneration LNG project in Huasheng Chemical Project of the company have been put into operation, and the output of main products of the company has increased compared with the same period of last year.
Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) it is estimated that the net profit in 2021 will increase by 1.306 billion yuan – 1.406 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 672.5% – 724%. The annual production and sales volume of the company’s main products increased significantly, of which the production and sales volume of coke and BDO increased by about 25% and 50% year-on-year respectively.
this year’s coal price may return to the medium-term equilibrium price
Sort out the highest coal index (000820) that nearly doubled in 2021. On January 4, 2021, the opening number of coal index was 2279.89, and then began to shock and attack the market.
On September 16, 2021, the coal index reached the annual high of 4463.54, which is also the high point of the index in six years. In 2015, the coal index reached 4476.21.
After reaching the high point of the year, affected by the policy, the coal price began to decline, and the coal index began to fall rapidly. On November 17, 2021, the coal index reached the low point of 2886.05, about 35% from the high point.
On the 14th, 000820 closed at 3235.08, down 3.55%.
It is worth mentioning that the coal stock with the largest increase in 2021 is Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000780) , a coal enterprise that has submitted an application for termination of listing, with an increase of 203.32% last year. On December 8, 2021, Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000780) announced that the share exchange absorption merger Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000780) of Longyuan Power Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Longyuan Power”) was approved by the CSRC. As the world’s largest wind power operator, Longyuan Power will officially land in A-Shares in the near future.
In addition, Yankuang energy and Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) ranked second and third in the list of share price increases of coal enterprises in 2021, with annual increases of 147.41% and 142.96% respectively last year.
According to choice data, among the 37 constituent stocks in the coal industry, 30 gained positive gains in 2021, and 5 more than doubled.
Reviewing the coal market in 2021, the research report said: last year, due to insufficient supply, it was necessary to promote the continuous rise of coal prices, reaching an unprecedented height in October, and then quickly callback under the strong policy regulation; Most stocks in the coal industry have also experienced rapid rise and fall. The rise of the whole sector is in the leading position in the whole market. Companies with a high proportion of coal in the market have large performance flexibility and more obvious stock price fluctuations.
After the “magnificent” market in 2021, how will the coal market go next?
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) indicates that in 2022 or the year when the coal price returns to the medium-term equilibrium price, after experiencing a significant increase in demand in 2021, it is expected that the effect of the relaxation of industrial power and real estate policies in 2022 will still support the coal demand. The industry may show a pattern of both supply and demand, but it will return to the balance of supply and demand from extreme supply tension. In this process, In 2022, the average market price of thermal coal may fall back to the level of 850 ~ 900 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year decrease of about 12% – 15%, but it still remains high. As the annual long-term association price has a certain room to rise, superimposed on the output growth, the performance of leading listed companies may still increase.
