review: in mid October 2021, we judged that the main line will return to growth, and science and technology innovation will sound the horn of counter attack. On November 10, 2021, we judged that the next year's market was about to start.
Outlook: bottom area, dawn will now
The market has been bumpy since the beginning of the year, but we think it is already in the bottom area domain . On the one hand, the undervalued repair of financial and real estate sectors will continue to be realized after fluctuations. On the other hand, the adjustment space of popular tracks such as the "new semi army" has also been relatively sufficient.
"mini version 2014" is brewing, and the timing depends on the wide credit process. in the top ten forecasts for 2022, we suggested that "a wave of index market similar to \'mini version 2014\' is expected in 2022". The market fluctuation this week is mainly due to the fluctuation of policy expectations, poor social finance data in December, and rising concerns about the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase or even contraction. Similar to the initial stage of the bull market in 2014, there were adjustments in August and late September due to the lower than expected macro data. In October, there was a significant correction due to the superposition of factors such as the announcement of the withdrawal of qe4 by the Federal Reserve and the extension of Shanghai Stock connect. However, the market is gradually established in the hesitation of the market and the rise of the index. At present, we believe that a wave of market similar to "mini version 2014" is brewing, and its timing depends on the process of wide credit: 1) the market is in the time window of "stable growth" and marginal "wide credit", and the core logic of the market continues to be fulfilled and strengthened: although the new social finance in December 2021 is slightly lower than expected, the year-on-year 10.3% of the stock social finance is still higher than 10.1% of the previous value, M2 was also 9.0% year-on-year, higher than the expected 8.7%, indicating that the credit environment is still improving. In addition, the new special debt of RMB 1.46 trillion has been issued in advance, and major projects in some provinces and cities have also been issued in advance compared with previous years. Social finance is expected to further recover in January. Various signals and data are constantly verifying the direction of marginal "wide credit". 2) at the time point, the index market in 2014 was not officially established until the central bank cut interest rates on November 21, 2014. At present, we also need to wait for signals such as social financing volume, reserve requirement and interest rate reduction. However, from the time point of layout, just as the market finally proved that every adjustment from August to October 2014 has become an excellent buying point, it is still in the window of layout on the left. 3) however, the difference between now and 2014 is that, on the one hand, 2014 is a comprehensive and systematic relaxation. At present, under the general tone of "no speculation in real estate and housing" and "no promotion in infrastructure", the intensity and space of policy easing are relatively limited, and it is more likely to be a phased and bottom-up relaxation. On the other hand, in 2014, it gradually evolved into a round of leveraged cattle. At present, the market leverage is weak, and institutional funds are still the dominant force in the market. Therefore, the final deduction form is similar to "mini version 2014", and the time and rhythm depend on the process of wide credit.
In terms of structure, focus on the two main lines of "big finance" + "small high tech": 1) "big finance": banks, securities companies and real estate. With the recent acceleration of industry and style rotation, the willingness of institutions to balance the position structure has increased significantly. As a top-down logical support and a "place with few people", the large financial sector is becoming the direction of phased position increase in the market. Bank: the performance in 2021 is significantly higher than expected. After the credit in December 2021, the loan in January 2022 is expected to "start well". Securities companies: active market transactions have led to high performance growth. The promotion of the follow-up comprehensive registration system is also expected to support long-term performance. Real estate: benefiting from marginal changes in policy, "steady growth" is expected to rise. The follow-up monetary and credit is expected to be further relaxed, leading to the repair of sector valuation. 2) "Small high tech": Science and technology growth represented by "small high tech": the science and technology growth plate has been adjusted recently, which is mainly disturbed by factors such as position, mood and style. However, in combination with the five congestion indicators and previous callbacks, the space for subsequent adjustment may be limited. In the medium and long term, scientific and technological growth is still the inevitable choice for high-quality development and bigger cake under common prosperity. It is also one of the most distinctive themes of the times to meet the urgent need to improve scientific and technological competitiveness and get rid of the "neck stuck" dilemma under the background of the game between China and the United States.
investment strategy: on the one hand, grasp the undervalued repair market of financial real estate, on the other hand, lay out "small high-tech" with long-term fighting short and bargain hunting. For a long time, focus on the five directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1) new energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) biomedical drugs (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
risk tip: pay attention to the unexpected return of global capital to the United States and the game between China and the United States.
