In May, the five-year LPR was reduced by 15bp, exceeding the expectation; In April, the RRR reduction was implemented, and the excess liquidity accelerated to improve. The year-on-year growth rate rebounded to 35%, at a historically high level; In April, the growth rate of M2 continued to rise by 10.5%, significantly higher than the growth rate of nominal GDP. Many signals indicate that asset prices have upward momentum. Abundant liquidity has brought important support to a shares. Although there are many unfavorable factors for the economy, the capital distribution and asset appreciation seem to have begun. A shares have stabilized and rebounded as scheduled, and gradually entered a new round of upward cycle. Steady growth is an important main line at present. The sectors benefiting from the acceleration of new construction and construction and the traditional cyclical products and new energy infrastructure along the main line of the recovery of economic activities after the epidemic can be paid special attention to.
core views
[observing policies and discussing the market] A-Shares have stabilized and rebounded as scheduled, and gradually entered a new round of upward cycle. With the introduction of the “political and financial” policy, the A-share market is expected to be gradually improved, and the “A-share financing” project is expected to be put back to the upward starting point in the future. With the introduction of the “political and financial” policy, the A-share market is expected to be gradually stabilized. First, focus on the two directions of growth and stable industry allocation. It is mainly recommended to start the construction of traditional infrastructure such as [chemical industry], [cement], [industrial metal], [steel] and new infrastructure such as [photovoltaic], [wind power], [energy storage] for the benefit of new construction and construction acceleration; Second, economic activities resumed after the epidemic. Pay attention to the consumption voucher activities launched by various places, from quantitative change to qualitative change, and support the [food], [daily necessities], [home] and [consumer building materials] brought by the demand for rigid and improved housing.
[resumption · internal view] all major A-share indexes rose this week , mainly due to: 1) the epidemic situation in some areas has improved significantly recently, and the resumption of work and production has been steadily promoted; 2) Recently, the relief policies for small and medium-sized enterprises have been continuously introduced; 3) The five-year LPR was lowered more than expected, which on the one hand had positive support for the valuation of a shares, on the other hand strengthened the expectation and intensity of economic recovery after the epidemic.
[meso · boom] in April, the output of smart phones turned negative year-on-year, the output of integrated circuits expanded year-on-year, and the output of industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) turned negative year-on-year; From January to April, the year-on-year decline in the completed area of houses, sales volume of commercial houses, sales area of commercial houses, newly started area of houses and the cumulative value of development fund sources expanded, and the cumulative completed amount of real estate development investment turned negative year-on-year From 1 to April, the cumulative year-on-year growth of China’s power generation narrowed, and China’s power consumption turned negative year-on-year in April. This week, billet and rebar prices continued to decline, while iron ore price index rose. The cement price index of the whole country and many regions decreased.
[capital · numerous and few] northward capital flows back sharply, and the two financial institutions continue to flow in northward capital inflow of 15.22 billion yuan this week; The total net inflow of financing funds in the first four trading days was 3.02 billion yuan; 2.33 billion partial equity public funds were newly established, an increase of 990 million over the previous period; ETF net redemption, corresponding to a net outflow of 4.42 billion yuan. In terms of industry preference, banks, chemical industry, public utilities, etc. have higher net purchase scale of northbound funds; Net purchase of chemical industry, food and beverage, building materials, etc. with financing funds; There are more applications for pharmaceutical ETFs and more redemption of information technology ETFs. The net reduction scale of important shareholders expanded and the planned reduction scale decreased.
[theme · wind direction] this week’s industry observation – People’s cloud “goes online, focusing on the continuous promotion of Xinchuang, state-owned assets cloud and Eastern digital Western computing. may 20, the” people’s cloud “positioned in security cloud, Xinchuang cloud, state-owned assets cloud and industry cloud was officially launched as” state-owned assets cloud ” “The nationwide landing provides a basic platform, which effectively ensures the core demand of the information and innovation industry in pursuit of intrinsic safety, and helps to promote the national” East digital and West computing strategy. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities in state-owned assets cloud, East digital and West computing and information and innovation.
[data · valuation] the valuation level of all A-Shares this week increased compared with last week , PE (TTM) increased by 0.3x to 13.8x, which is in the quantile of 30.3% of the historical valuation level. The valuation of the sector was divided, among which the valuation of the electrical equipment sector rose more and the pharmaceutical and biological sector fell more.
[risk warning] the strength of the policy was less than expected, and the US dollar appreciated significantly
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view of policy · on the market – LPR is lowered, liquidity is abundant, and the increase of layout assets has begun
On November 8, 2021, we released the 2022 annual strategy report “from noisy to dull, waiting for a new starting point”, emphasizing that the overall situation of A-Shares in 2022 is similar to “√”. The growth rate of new social finance turned positive around the third quarter, resulting in an upward profit expectation, and A-Shares will usher in the starting point of a new round of upward cycle. In subsequent reports, we repeatedly mentioned “there will be an upward cycle starting point for A-Shares from mid and late April to mid and early May” . On January 23, we released the report “how do A-Shares go after the deviation of China US monetary policy? What is the bottom signal?”, On February 13, we released the report “the positive growth rate of new social finance and the turnaround of a shares”. On March 13, we released the report “the bottom of A-Shares has been found, built or opened”. On March 19, we released the report “how to refine the historical bottom of A shares?”, On May 4, we released the report “the inflection point has come, and the upward trend will begin”. It is proposed that the past adjustment and current valuation of A-Shares have fully priced many shocks in the past. In the future, it will enter the upward cycle of shocks with the mitigation of the epidemic, steady growth and the easing of the external environment.
many people don’t quite understand why A-Shares have rebounded significantly recently. In fact, it’s not difficult to understand if the whole A shares are regarded as a “dilemma reversal” sector
The five-year LPR was lowered more than expected, which on the one hand had positive support for the valuation of a shares, on the other hand strengthened the expectation and intensity of economic recovery after the epidemic. After the inflection point appears, it will maintain a shock upward trend.
lpr five-year beyond expectation adjustment
The loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) is quoted by each quotation bank according to the open market operation interest rate (mainly refers to the medium-term lending convenience interest rate), which is calculated by the national interbank lending center to provide pricing reference for bank loans.
At present, LPR includes two varieties with one-year period and more than five-year period.
Among medium-term interest rate instruments, LPR is second only to MLF. Generally speaking, one-year LPR will be adjusted with MLF interest rate, but one-year LPR may also be adjusted independently for other reasons, such as RRR reduction. The five-year LPR may also be adjusted with the MLF interest rate, but the adjustment range may not be consistent with the MLF. The five-year LPR can also be adjusted independently.
The five-year LPR was reduced by 15bp under the background that MLF interest rate and one-year LPR interest rate were not adjusted, so it exceeded the expectation of the whole market, which also added a relatively independent variety to the central bank’s interest rate tool, five-year LPR Therefore, we often talk about reducing interest rates, which may take four forms – reducing the seven-day reverse repo interest rate, reducing the MLF interest rate, reducing the one-year LPR interest rate and reducing the five-year LPR interest rate.
Historically, the downward cycle of LPR interest rate has occurred three times, from November 24, 2014 to October 26, 2015, from August 20, 2019 to April 20, 2020, and from the beginning of this round to December 20, 2021. At present, it is likely to be still in the process of downward adjustment. After November 24, 2014 and August 20, 2019, A-Shares experienced a round of obvious “valuation” after the downward trend of LPR interest rate.
The current round of LPR reduction took place on January 20. After the MLF interest rate reduction on January 17 this year, the corresponding reduction should be regarded as the “advance force” of monetary policy. However, after the repeated epidemic, great economic uncertainty and downward pressure, the MLF and LPR interest rates have not been adjusted until the five-year LPR reduction, which continues the previous interest rate reduction cycle.
five-year LRP reduction will play an important role in improving the overall valuation of A-Shares
lpr adjusted more than expected, and the performance of exchange rate and interest rate reflected confidence in recovery
Previously, the market was generally worried that under the background of the global interest rate hike, especially the US Federal Reserve’s higher than expected interest rate hike, if China significantly reduces interest rates and loosens money, the pressure of RMB exchange rate depreciation may increase. Earlier, the Fed chairman said that the Fed would still raise interest rates by 50bp in June However, when the LPR cut 15bp more than expected, the RMB exchange rate rose instead of falling, with a sharp appreciation of nearly 1000 basis points, from 6.76 to 6.67.
We believe that the very important reason for this abnormal performance lies in the global confidence in China’s economy. The current round of devaluation of RMB against the US dollar occurred after the current round of epidemic spread and had a great negative impact on the economy. However, since the recent diagnosis and the sharp decline of asymptomatic infection, and the obvious acceleration of resumption of production and work, the RMB began to appreciate against the US dollar again.
Then, after the epidemic eases and ends, China’s economy will recover, while the U.S. economic data has shown a weakening trend. The economic direction of China and the United States once again shows the trend of China’s recovery and the U.S. downward. This time, the LPR is cut by 15bp more than expected, which further strengthens the strength after recovery in the future. Therefore, despite China’s move to cut interest rates, the RMB exchange rate did not depreciate but rose.
Then, for the same reason, the reflection of China’s ten-year Treasury bond interest rate is logical. After the five-year LPR was cut more than expected, the ten-year Treasury bond interest rate rose by 2bp on the same day. Between the logic of loose monetary policy and strengthened recovery expectation, the latter played a greater role.
liquidity environment is more relaxed, pessimists are wise and optimists are layout
In addition to the five-year higher than expected reduction of LPR, we also saw other important signals. The first is that the growth rate of M2 in first quarter rebounded significantly, significantly higher than the growth rate of nominal GDP, which had a positive support for asset prices according to the monetary quantity equation, when the growth rate of M2 is higher than the real GDP, inflation may rise. If the growth rate of M2 is higher than the growth rate of nominal GDP, the excess M2 will also be transformed into the increase of asset price.
From the historical data, when the M2 growth rate is higher than the nominal GDP growth rate, the asset price will rise about a quarter later. Before 2021, the real estate sales amount / real estate sales area will rise after the M2 growth rate is higher than the nominal GDP growth rate, which is reflected in the “spillover effect” of loose liquidity
Similarly, the growth rate of M2 is higher than the growth rate of nominal GDP, and wind a may also have an obvious upward trend, which is reflected in the “spillover effect” of loose liquidity.
The M2 growth rate continued to increase significantly in the first quarter, and the nominal GDP growth rate was relatively low in the first and second quarters. The spillover effect of loose liquidity may still lead to the “spillover effect” of upward asset prices. However, it seems that there is a certain logic whether it is reflected in the increase of real estate sales amount / real estate sales area or stock price.
Another important liquidity indicator, excess liquidity, is another important indicator to measure liquidity defined by the investment promotion strategy team. In April, the growth rate increased to 35% year-on-year. previously, the year-on-year growth rate of excess liquidity was so high that it basically brought the rise of A-Shares except in 2018, A-Shares failed to rise under the dual pressure of trade friction and financial deleveraging.
although there are many reasons not so optimistic at present, some people still begin to make layout for asset appreciation silently
summary: LPR is lowered, liquidity is abundant, and asset appreciation of layout has begun
In May, the five-year LPR was reduced by 15bp, exceeding the expectation; In April, the RRR reduction was implemented, and the excess liquidity accelerated to improve. The year-on-year growth rate rebounded to 35%, at a historically high level; In April, the growth rate of M2 continued to rise by 10.5%, significantly higher than the growth rate of nominal GDP. Many signals indicate that asset prices have upward momentum, and the abundant liquidity has brought important support to a shares. Although there are many unfavorable factors for the economy, the capital distribution and asset growth seem to have begun. A shares have stabilized and rebounded as scheduled, and gradually entered a new round of upward cycle.
In the future, with the epidemic situation in China under control, the “incremental policy tools” that have been issued and are being planned emphasized at the Politburo meeting are expected to be implemented and promoted. The implementation and commencement of investment projects will drive social finance back to the upward direction and improve market economic expectations. A shares are expected to gradually stabilize and recover and gradually move towards the starting point of a new upward cycle. First, focus on the two directions of growth and stable industry allocation. It is mainly recommended to start the construction of traditional infrastructure such as [chemical industry], [cement], [industrial metal], [steel] and new infrastructure such as [photovoltaic], [wind power], [energy storage] for the benefit of new construction and construction acceleration; Second, economic activities resumed after the epidemic. Pay attention to the consumption voucher activities launched by various places, from quantitative change to qualitative change, and support the [food], [daily necessities], [home] and [consumer building materials] brought by the demand for rigid and improved housing.
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resumption of trading · internal view – the market is generally rising and the growth rate is ahead
All the major A-share indexes rose this week. The small and medium-sized indexes and growth indexes tracked were relatively strong. The rise of CSI 1000, small and medium-sized 100 and science and technology leading indexes ranked first, while the rise of market value, consumption leading and small cap value indexes lagged behind. From the perspective of transaction, the average transaction on Sunday was 815.02 billion yuan, and the average daily transaction was roughly the same as that of the previous week.
The net inflow of southbound funds into Hong Kong shares this week was HK $12.6 billion, and the net inflow of northbound funds into A-Shares this week was RMB 15.22 billion.
All A-share markets rose this week, mainly due to: 1) the number of confirmed cases in some areas with serious epidemic in the early stage has decreased significantly, the epidemic has begun to improve, the resumption of work and production has been steadily promoted, and the impact of early market concerns on the economy has come to an end; 2) Recently, the relief policies for small and medium-sized enterprises have been issued continuously, and the policies have increased support to hedge the impact of the epidemic on the economy; 3) The five-year LPR was lowered more than expected, which on the one hand had positive support for the valuation of a shares, on the other hand strengthened the expectation and intensity of economic recovery after the epidemic.
From the perspective of industry, most of the Shenwan level industries rose this week, only one level-1 industry fell, coal, power equipment and nonferrous metals led the rise, pharmaceutical and biological industries fell, and real estate and banks lagged behind. In terms of the reasons for the rise and fall, the industry with the highest rise this week is mainly due to the fact that the price department of the coal development and Reform Commission recently organized special meetings for key coal and power enterprises, and the price limit range is narrower than the market expectation. Under the increase of electricity price and policy control, coal may maintain high profits for a long time), power equipment (the expectation of raw material capping in the new energy sector, the steady growth of power equipment and the resumption of work and production), nonferrous metals (the benefit of steady growth and new construction). The industry with the largest decline this week is mainly medicine (the marginal improvement of the epidemic situation and the rotation decline of epidemic varieties).
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meso · boom – in April, industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output turned negative year-on-year, and the decline of commercial housing sales expanded
4 month Smartphone Production turned negative year on year according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the output of smart phones in China in April was 96 million units, down 3.80% year-on-year (the previous value was 3.1%), from positive to negative year-on-year.
in 4 months, the output of integrated circuits decreased more year-on-year according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, China’s IC output in April was 25.9 billion pieces, down 12.10% year-on-year in the same month, an increase of 7.0 percentage points compared with March.
April industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output changed from positive to negative year-on-year April industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) month output was 32535 sets / set, down 8.40% year-on-year in the same month, an increase from positive to negative compared with March. From January to April 2022, the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) cumulative output was 125439 sets / set, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.40%, and the growth rate turned negative from 10.2% from January to March.
from 1 to April, the cumulative year-on-year increase of charging piles expanded From 1 to April, the cumulative number of charging piles reached 1332200, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 53.44%, an increase of 8.62 percentage points over the previous value, an increase of 143.65% over the same period in 2020.
from 1 to April, the year-on-year decline in the completed area of houses, the sales volume of commercial houses, the sales area of commercial houses, the newly started area of houses and the cumulative value of development capital sources expanded, and the cumulative completed amount of real estate development investment turned negative year-on-year From 1 to April, the cumulative value of completed housing area was 200 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 11.90%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous value; From January to April, the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 397 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 26.3%, an increase of 8.8 percentage points compared with the decline from January to March.
From January to April, the cumulative value of commercial housing sales was 3.78 trillion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 29.50% and an increase of 6.8 percentage points; From January to April, the cumulative value of commercial housing sales area was 398 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 20.9% and an increase of 7.1 percentage points; From January to April, the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 3.92 trillion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.7%, and the growth rate changed from positive to negative.
The total investment in real estate development was 4.08 trillion yuan, a decrease of 4.08% over the previous month, accounting for a total of 18.08% of the total investment in real estate development.
From 1 to April, the cumulative year-on-year growth of China’s power generation narrowed, including the year-on-year growth of hydropower, wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation, and the year-on-year growth of thermal power and nuclear power generation narrowed From 1 to April, China’s cumulative power generation was 260922 billion kwh, up 1.3% year-on-year, 1.8 percentage points lower than the previous value; Among them, the cumulative output of thermal power was 1863.5 billion kwh, down 1.8% year-on-year; The cumulative output of hydropower is 313 billion kwh, up 14.3% year-on-year; The cumulative output of wind power was 226.5 billion kwh, up 6.8% year-on-year Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) output totaled 68.3 billion kwh, up 14.8% year-on-year; Nuclear power output totaled 131.6 billion kwh, up 5.40% year-on-year.
in 4 months, China’s electricity consumption turned negative year-on-year, in which the growth rate of electricity consumption in the primary industry narrowed, and the growth rate of electricity consumption in the secondary and tertiary industries turned negative 4 in April, China’s total electricity consumption was 636.2 billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3% and a decrease of 4.8 percentage points from the previous value; Among them, the power consumption of the primary industry in the current month was 7.8 billion kwh, up 5.5% year-on-year; The electricity consumption of the secondary industry in the current month was 446.8 billion kwh, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 1.4%; The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry in the month was 97.9 billion kwh, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 6.8%.
this week, the prices of billet and rebar continued to decline, while the iron ore price index rose as of May 20, the billet price index decreased by 1.03% on a weekly basis to 4596.0 yuan / ton; The price of HRB400 20mm deformed steel bar decreased by 1.79% to 4896.0 yuan / ton; The iron ore price index rose 4.26% week on week to 487.38.
national and regional cement price indexes all declined as of May 20, the national cement price index fell by 1.25% to 163.2 points; The Yangtze River cement price index fell 1.29% to 157.99; The cement price index in North China decreased by 0.81% to 174.84% on a weekly basis, and the cement price index in East China decreased by 1.29% to 160.15 on a weekly basis; The cement price index of Northwest China decreased by 0.32% to 167.48 on a weekly basis; The cement price index in Southwest China decreased by 0.11% to 156.63 on a weekly basis.
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capital · numerous and few – the capital going north has returned sharply, and the two financial institutions continue to flow into
From the situation of capital flow throughout the week, the capital going north this week showed a net inflow trend, the net inflow of financing funds, the rise of newly established partial stock public offering funds and the net redemption of ETFs. Specifically, the net inflow of funds going north this week was 15.22 billion yuan; The total net inflow of financing funds in the first four trading days was 3.02 billion yuan; 2.33 billion partial equity public funds were newly established, an increase of 990 million over the previous period; ETF net redemption, corresponding to a net outflow of 4.42 billion yuan.
from the perspective of net subscription of ETF, net redemption of ETF and wide Index ETF are all net redemption, among which the gem (including gem 50) ETF has the most redemption; ETFs in the industry are applied for and redeemed in half, among which pharmaceutical ETFs are applied for more and information technology ETFs are redeemed more Overall, the net redemption of ETF shares is 2.37 billion. Among them, CSI 300, gem ETF, CSI 500etf, SSE 50ETF and mass entrepreneurship and innovation 50ETF have net redemptions of 190 million, 780 million, 330 million, 350 million and 280 million respectively. In terms of industry, 730 million it ETFs were redeemed; Net subscription of consumer ETFs: 550 million; Net subscription of 950 million pharmaceutical ETFs; Net redemption of 240 million ETFs by securities companies; Net subscription of 760 million ETFs of financial real estate; The net subscription of military ETF was 580 million; Net redemption of ETF of raw materials: 40 million; The net redemption of new energy & Intelligent Vehicle ETF was 290 million.
this week, the scale of newly established partial stock public funds rebounded compared with the previous period, and 2.33 billion partial stock funds were newly established
this week (may 16-may 20), the net inflow of funds to the North was 15.22 billion yuan, which changed from the net outflow in the early stage to the net inflow in terms of industry preference, banks, chemical industry, public utilities, etc. with higher net purchase scale of northbound funds, net purchases of 4.24 billion yuan, 2.66 billion yuan and 1.54 billion yuan respectively; Concentrated sales of real estate, light industry manufacturing and non-ferrous metals, with a net sales scale of – 1.2 billion yuan, – 690 million yuan and – 480 million yuan.
stocks, the higher net purchase scale of northbound capital is China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , etc; Higher net sales include Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , etc
in terms of financing, the net inflow of financing funds in the first four trading days was 3.02 billion yuan from the perspective of industry preference, the financing funds focused on chemical industry this week, with a net purchase amount of 600 million yuan. Other industries with the highest net purchase scale mainly include food and beverage, building materials, real estate, etc; Net sales are mainly steel, electronics, communications, etc. In terms of individual stocks, the stocks with higher financing net purchases include Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) , Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) -u, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) etc., and the stocks with higher net sales mainly include Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , etc.
from the perspective of capital demand, the net reduction scale of important shareholders expanded and the planned reduction scale decreased this week, the major shareholders in the secondary market increased their holdings by 940 million yuan, reduced their holdings by 7.64 billion yuan, reduced their net holdings by 6.7 billion yuan, and expanded the scale of their net holdings. Among them, the industries with higher net holdings include medicine and biology, architectural decoration, textile and clothing, etc; Industries with high net reduction scale include chemical industry, real estate, electrical equipment, etc. The planned reduction announced this week was 12.38 billion yuan, down from the previous period.
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theme · wind direction – “people’s cloud” goes online, focusing on the continuous promotion of Xinchuang, state-owned assets cloud and East digital West computing
The market rose this week. The wind all a index rose 2.63% weekly, the gem index rose 2.51% and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 2.23%. The main topics with the highest growth this week are soybeans, photovoltaic and power supply equipment.
The theme events worthy of attention this week and next week are:
1, new energy – the State Grid accelerates the construction of a new power system
On May 19, the video conference on signing the letter of responsibility of 2022 special major science and technology projects of the action plan for tackling key scientific and technological problems of new power system of the state grid was held. Xin Baoan, director of the State Grid, pointed out in his speech that promoting the tackling of major scientific and technological projects is an urgent need to speed up the construction of a new power system. The company has identified ten key science and technology projects, covering key core technology fields such as coordinated and optimized dispatching of coal-fired power and new energy power generation, and improving the emergency supply guarantee capacity of the power system. It has arranged an R & D investment of 200 million yuan to fully tackle the core technologies of the new power system, promote the transformation of clean and low-carbon energy, and help achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. The new power system takes new energy as the main body, including clean power source, intelligent transmission and distribution, electrification of terminal energy consumption and so on.
2 , green power generation – National Energy Administration: by the end of April, the installed power generation capacity in China was about 2.41 billion kw, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%
On May 18, according to the data of the national energy administration, as of the end of April, the installed capacity of power generation in China was about 2.41 billion kw, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. Among them, the installed capacity of wind power was about 340 million KW, a year-on-year increase of 17.7% Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) installed power generation capacity was about 320 million KW, an increase of 23.6% year-on-year. From January to April, the cumulative average utilization of power generation equipment in China was 1176 hours, a decrease of 41 hours over the same period last year. Among them, 1417 hours of thermal power, 51 hours less than the same period last year; 2447 hours of nuclear power, a decrease of 4 hours over the same period last year; 778 hours of wind power, 45 hours less than the same period last year. From January to April, the investment in power supply projects of major power generation enterprises in China was 117.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. Among them, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation was 29 billion yuan, an increase of 204.1% year-on-year. The investment in power grid projects was 89.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%.
3, Intelligent Manufacturing – the world intelligent conference is approaching, and the development of intelligent manufacturing is accelerating
According to the news on May 16, the sixth world intelligence conference is planned to be held in the National Convention and Exhibition Center (Tianjin) from June 9 to 12, 2022. The sixth world intelligence conference will still take “high-end, internationalization, specialization and marketization” as the purpose of the conference, and focus on the four directions of “global, leading, professional and future”, so as to realize the quality of activities, the weight of guests, the weight of achievements, the flow of visitors The “five volume” of media volume has increased simultaneously. In recent years, China has increased investment in the field of intelligent manufacturing. Previously, eight departments including the Ministry of industry and information technology jointly issued the intelligent manufacturing development plan during the 14th five year plan. The plan proposes that by 2025, most manufacturing enterprises above Designated Size will realize digital networking, and the backbone enterprises in key industries will initially apply intellectualization; By 2035, manufacturing enterprises above Designated Size will fully popularize digital networking, and backbone enterprises in key industries will basically realize intellectualization. The analysis points out that with the continuous development of intelligent manufacturing field, the transformation of manufacturing industry into automatic production is an inevitable trend, which will promote the development of various subdivided fields and stimulate demand.
4, new energy – rural vehicle policy is expected to be issued in early June, with a subsidy of Dingli Corp.Ltd(300050) 00 yuan per vehicle
According to the news on May 14, a new round of automobile going to the countryside policy is imminent. At the same time, the resumption of work and production has been steadily promoted, and the supply and demand of the automobile industry has been boosted.
It was learned from many insiders that the policy of going to the countryside for cars is expected to be introduced in early June. For cars with models less than 150000 yuan (including fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles), the subsidy range for each car may be 3000 yuan to 5000 yuan. Industry experts predict that going to the countryside will promote the sales of 20 Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) 0000 fuel vehicles and 3 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 00000 new energy vehicles. The Ministry of industry and information technology and the national development and Reform Commission conducted an investigation on the production and operation of the automobile industry in April. At that time, people close to the China Automobile Association disclosed that representatives of automobile enterprises suggested another round of “automobile to the countryside” to stimulate automobile consumption.
5 , meta universe – the white paper on the study of financial meta universe issued by China Financial Information Center
On May 13, the China Financial Information Center held an online press conference on the white paper on the study of the financial meta universe (hereinafter referred to as the “white paper”). The participants described the future appearance of the “financial meta universe”. The white paper believes that the meta universe new economy has great development potential and will guide the innovative direction of financial development in a country or region. The in-depth development of yuancosmos will likely reshape the model and ecology of the financial industry, and people are still the most important research and service subjects. The deep integration of digital space and physical space will accelerate the digital transformation of the financial industry and form new opportunities for the financial industry. Banking and insurance industry are the frontier territory of science and technology application, and the “financial meta universe” will open a new version of the map for them. When finance and meta universe are combined, traditional finance will also break through the constraints of “time” and “empty” scenes. When customers get the experience with a sense of science and technology, immersion and compensation, finance will also usher in new opportunities in customer expansion, contact marketing and other businesses.
6, new energy – Byd Company Limited(002594) release CTB technology, and the first model seal opens pre-sale
On May 20, Byd Company Limited(002594) released CTB battery body integration technology and seal, the first e-platform 3.0 model equipped with CTB technology. The car is the second pure electric car of marine life series under Byd Company Limited(002594) ocean net after dolphin Byd Company Limited(002594) ctb battery body integration technology simplifies the body structure and production process, further integrates the battery cover and the body floor, and evolves from the original battery pack “sandwich” structure to the “sandwich” structure of the whole vehicle, so as to improve the safety, structural strength and performance of the whole vehicle. As the first e-platform 3.0 model equipped with CTB technology, seal is a masterpiece of Byd Company Limited(002594) in the field of advanced technology of electric vehicles and a practical exploration and product realization of the next generation of electric vehicles. The pre-sale of the new car has been officially opened, and the pre-sale price is 2128 Sailong Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002898) 00 yuan.
7, photovoltaic – the European Commission announced an energy plan to double Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic power generation capacity by 2025
On May 18, the European Commission announced an energy plan called “repowereu” to rapidly promote the transformation of green energy. The plan proposes to increase the overall target of renewable energy in the EU policy portfolio of “carbon reduction by 55% by 2030 from 40% to 45%; Establish a special EU Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) strategy to double Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic power generation capacity by 2025 and install 600gw by 2030; Double the deployment rate of heat pumps and take measures to integrate geothermal and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) into modern regional and public heating systems; By 2030, 10 million tons of renewable hydrogen will be produced and 10 million tons will be imported to replace natural gas, coal and oil used by industries and transportation sectors that are difficult to reduce carbon. The European Commission also announced that the EU Cohesion Fund and the common agricultural policy (CAP) can provide 26.9 billion euros and 7.5 billion euros to the EU recovery measures Fund (RRF) through voluntary transfer. The European Commission will double the large-scale collection of funds from the innovation fund in 2022 to about 3 billion euros this autumn.
8, digital economy – the CPPCC National Committee is talking about digital economy, and local policies have been issued
On May 17, the CPPCC National Committee held a special consultation meeting on “promoting the sustainable and healthy development of digital economy” in Beijing. Wang Yang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and chairman of the CPPCC National Committee, attended and delivered a speech. He stressed that we should seriously study and understand the important exposition of Xi Jinping general secretary on developing the digital economy, scientifically study and judge the situation, enhance development confidence, dialectically treat and comprehensively grasp the relationship between development and security, constantly strengthen, optimize and expand the digital economy, make it better serve and integrate into the new development pattern and promote high-quality development. Liu He, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, attended the meeting and delivered a speech. He stressed that efforts should be made to adapt to the all-round changes brought about by the digital economy, improve the level of basic research, support the sustainable and healthy development of the platform economy and private economy, study specific measures to support the standardized and healthy development of the platform economy, encourage platform enterprises to participate in major national scientific and technological innovation projects, and support digital enterprises to be listed in capital markets outside China. Nearly 100 members of the CPPCC National Committee attended the meeting, 29 members and experts spoke at the meeting, and more than 140 members expressed their opinions through the Committee performance platform.
this week’s industry observation – “people’s cloud” was officially launched, focusing on the continuous promotion of Xinchuang, state-owned assets cloud and East digital West computing
on May 20, 5, “people’s cloud”, a national data cloud platform, was officially launched “people’s cloud” is positioned as a security cloud of big data “storage, management and use”, an independent and controllable information and innovation cloud, a state-owned asset cloud of state-owned assets supervision, and an open and win-win industry cloud “people’s cloud” basic technology platform provides cloud products and services such as cloud host, database, hybrid cloud, bare metal cloud, container cloud and cloud native with the full stack cloud service capabilities in the fields of cloud storage, cloud network, cloud computing power, cloud security, cloud management, cloud ecology and cloud machine room; Provide IDC services such as data center leasing, construction, computer room hosting, operation and maintenance management, and provide full life-cycle services and solutions for the digital transformation of Party and government organs at all levels, central and state-owned enterprises and all walks of life. “People’s cloud” will also provide technical support, network platform and business environment for all kinds of new products, new technologies and new applications, work with partners to build an ecosystem on the cloud, focusing on Party construction, government affairs, agriculture, finance, medical treatment, education, audio and video, chip, automobile, 5g, industrial AI, metauniverse, culture and tourism and other industries. It is understood that “people’s cloud” will plan and layout new data centers and new computing centers in Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Chengdu Chongqing. In order to actively respond to the national “counting from the east to the west” project, “people’s cloud” will also speed up the layout of computing power hub nodes in the West and invest in the construction of data centers
state owned assets cloud: protecting the security of state-owned data assets
“state owned assets cloud” is a state-owned enterprise integration cloud platform led by local governments , which is uniformly handed over to local governments as the leading Party of procurement and construction for top-level informatization design under the requirements of the notice on accelerating the digital transformation of state-owned enterprises issued by SASAC and the overall planning of local SASAC; All municipal management and entrusted management enterprises migrate their own computing resources and system data to the “state-owned assets cloud” platform, so as to form an integrated cloud platform dominated by local state-owned assets system.
protecting the security of state-owned data assets is the core purpose of building state-owned assets cloud. The nationalization of data assets has become the basis of the modernization of ruling ability
“state owned assets cloud” policy is issued because of frequent network security incidents in recent years. With the promulgation and implementation of data security law, personal information protection law and other laws, “party management of data and data security” will become the bottom line in the process of national economic development, and “state owned assets cloud” came into being
since 2021, the cloud of local state-owned assets has continued to advance at present, Tianjin, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Chongqing and other places have basically landed the infrastructure platform of “state-owned assets cloud”. The launch of “people’s cloud” further expands the application foundation of “state-owned assets cloud” to the whole country.
In March 2021, Tianjin “state owned assets cloud” began to operate. On August 27, 2021, Tianjin SASAC issued an implementation plan on accelerating the cloud work of state-owned enterprises and improving the construction of state-owned cloud system. The document clearly requires that all enterprises shall not sign or renew cloud resource leasing contracts with third-party public cloud platforms, and all shall be transferred to state-owned cloud within 2 months from the expiration of the lease. In principle, all shall be transferred to state-owned cloud no later than September 30, 2022.
In March 2021, Zhejiang “state owned assets cloud” began to operate. At present, Zhejiang “state owned assets cloud” has completed the deployment of cloud resources for 5 units and 6 systems of provincial communications and investment group, provincial international trade group, provincial construction and investment group, provincial energy group and Wuchan Zhongda Group Co.Ltd(600704) group.
In April 2021, Sichuan “state owned assets cloud” began to operate. Sichuan energy investment group and Sichuan Telecom have formed an innovative mode of joint operation to ensure the landing service for all provincial and municipal state-owned enterprises in Sichuan Province.
In September 2019, Chongqing has carried out the bidding for the artificial intelligence support platform of the “state owned cloud” platform (phase I) project; On July 30, 2021, Chongqing issued the bidding announcement for the business platform construction project of “state owned cloud” platform (phase II).
the cloud of state-owned assets is expected to develop rapidly in the next four years, reaching a market scale of nearly 15 billion yuan by 2025 Jishi information released the Research Report on the development of China’s state-owned cloud market from 2021 to 2022. The report believes that the transformation of cloud service mode combined with the digital transformation of state-owned enterprises has changed the leading power of procurement and integration, and the scale of state-owned cloud market has developed rapidly, reaching 3.65 billion yuan in 2021. In the next four years, China’s state-owned cloud market will maintain a momentum of rapid growth, with an average annual compound growth rate of 41.53%. It is estimated that the scale of China’s state-owned cloud market will be about 14.648 billion yuan by 2025.
East West calculation: promote the rational layout of data center
“computing from the east to the west”, namely “computing from the east to the west project”, refers to the construction of a new computing network system integrating data center, cloud computing and big data, so as to orderly guide the computing needs of the east to the west, optimize the construction layout of the data center and promote the coordination between the East and the West 2022 on February 17, it was learned from the national development and Reform Commission that the national development and Reform Commission, the central network and information office, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the National Energy Administration jointly issued a notice agreeing to start the construction of National Computing hub nodes in 8 places, including Beijing Tianjin Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao, Chengdu and Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Gansu and Ningxia, and planned 10 national data center clusters. The project of “counting from the east to the west” was officially launched.
“counting from the east to the west” project was officially launched. Over the past few months, provinces and cities across the country have successively announced construction plans according to the statistics of the national development and Reform Commission, 25 new projects have been started in the 10 national data center clusters in China since this year. The scale of the data center has reached 540000 standard racks, and the computing power is more than 135 billion floating-point operations per second, which is about 27 million personal computers, driving investment in all aspects of more than 190 billion yuan. Among them, the investment in the western region increased six times over the same period last year, and the investment generally showed a good trend of transfer from east to west.
Xinchuang: ensuring the intrinsic safety of digital economy
Xinchuang, i.e. information technology application Chuang Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) , is not only the basis of data security and network security, but also an important part of new infrastructure developing Xinchuang is to solve the problem of intrinsic safety. In other words, we should turn it into something we can control, research, develop and produce. Over the past many years, most of China’s it underlying standards, architecture and ecology have been formulated by foreign IT giants, resulting in many security risks. Therefore, we should gradually establish our own IT infrastructure and standards to form our own open ecology, which is also the core of the information and innovation industry. Generally speaking, it is to realize domestic substitution in the fields of core chip, basic hardware, operating system, middleware, data server and so on.
cpu and operating system are at the core of Xinchuang ecology information and innovation industry takes the information technology product ecosystem as the basic framework. At present, the traditional information technology industry is mainly composed of four parts: infrastructure, basic software, application software and network security . With the innovation and development of the new generation of information technology, cloud services and system integrators have also become an important part of the information technology industry.
market scale is over trillion, focusing on high-end industries at the initial stage of development, the information and innovation industry mainly relies on policy driven, providing fertile ground for the development of Chinese IT manufacturers. With the joint efforts of the government and enterprises, the market scale of China’s information and innovation industry has been expanding, showing the characteristics of blooming flowers, integrated application, technological innovation and surge of talents, and the market has released unprecedented vitality. In 2020, the market scale of China’s information and innovation industry was 1.05 trillion yuan, about 1.1 trillion yuan in 2021, an increase of 4.8%.
on the whole, “people’s cloud” is the information base and supporting platform of people’s data. It is positioned as the security cloud of big data “storage, management and use”, independent and controllable information and innovation cloud, state-owned assets cloud of state-owned assets supervision, and open and win-win industry cloud. It provides a basic platform for the implementation of “state-owned assets cloud” nationwide and effectively ensures the core demand of the information and innovation industry in pursuit of intrinsic safety. At the same time, the “people’s cloud” plans to reasonably plan and layout new data centers and new computing power centers in Beijing Tianjin Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and Chengdu Chongqing, which will contribute to the promotion of the national strategy of “counting from the east to the west”. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities in state-owned assets cloud, East digital West computing and information innovation
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data · valuation – overall A-share valuation upward
the valuation level of all A-Shares rose this week as of the closing on May 20, all A-share PE (TTM) rose 0.3x to 13.8x, in the quantile of 30.3% of the historical valuation level. Gem rose this week, with PE (TTM) rising 0.9x to 37.0x, which is in the quantile of 15.0% of the historical valuation level. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index PE (TTM), which represents large cap stocks, rose 0.2x to 11.3x this week, in the 35.0% quantile of the historical valuation level. The China Securities 500 index PE (TTM), which represents small and medium-sized stocks, rose 0.3 to 15.3x this week, in the 0.9% quantile of historical valuation level.
in terms of industry valuation, the valuation of the sector rose or fell sharply this week. Among them, the valuation of the electrical equipment sector rose more, with an increase of more than 2.0x among them, the electrical equipment board rose 2.4x to 34.9x, at the historical quantile of 46.7%; The valuation of pharmaceutical biology fell 0.4x to 24.5x, in the historical quantile of 1.5%. As of the closing on May 20, the top five industries in the valuation of primary industries were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, social services, national defense and military industry, beauty care and computer.
