On Friday, A-Shares opened higher and went higher. The three major indexes rose across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index approached 3150 points, and more than 3500 stocks rose.
The same day happened to be the online replay of Jay Chou’s “magic Tianlun 2013” concert. Zhang xiafa, the China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) chief strategic analyst, said in his circle of friends: “that year was the starting point of the gem bull market, while the online replay of” the strongest 2019 concert on the surface “on Saturday was the starting point of the leading bull market” and “this is called singing more”.
In the view of institutions, the current medium-term slow rise market of A-Shares is still in the early stage, the profit growth rate of A-Shares will rise after bottoming in the second quarter, and the market will shift from muddy sand to rich structural opportunities. In addition to continuing to focus on the main line of steady growth, some institutions began to strategically look at small cap growth stocks.
major events affecting future investment
central bank: 5-year LPR cut by 15 basis points
Recently, the quoted market interest rate (LPR) of the new phase of loans released by the national interbank lending center authorized by the central bank shows that the LPR over five years is 4.45%, down 15 basis points from the previous period. Experts said that the decline of LPR over a five-year period will help support the demand for rigid and improved housing, reduce the pressure on Residents’ mortgage interest, stabilize the basic market of investment, consumption and macro economy, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
CSRC’s 23 measures to help resume work
On May 20, the CSRC issued the notice on further exerting the function of capital market to support the recovery and development of areas and industries seriously affected by the epidemic, and put forward 23 policies and measures. The notice has strengthened policy support in terms of enterprises’ application for initial public offering, listing on the Beijing stock exchange, refinancing, mergers and acquisitions, corporate bonds, asset securitization products and so on; Make flexible arrangements such as extension of feedback, inquiry reply and time limit of financial data to be submitted; Through off-site means such as video conference, as well as reduction and exemption of relevant fees of listed companies and exchange members, to reflect the flexibility and temperature of supervision; Give full play to the role of securities funds and futures operating institutions to help fight the epidemic and resume work and production.
CSRC issued the measures for the supervision and administration of managers of publicly offered securities investment funds
On May 20, the CSRC officially issued the measures for the supervision and administration of managers of publicly offered securities investment funds and its supporting rules, mainly involving five aspects: first, improve the conditions for the establishment of fund management companies and shareholders, and optimize the access system of public offering licenses; Second, improve the compliance and risk control ability of public fund managers; Third, strive to improve the corporate governance of fund management and comprehensively build a long-term incentive and restraint mechanism; Fourth, support fund management companies to achieve differentiated development and improve their comprehensive wealth management ability on the basis of optimizing and strengthening the main business of public funds; Fifth, establish a withdrawal mechanism for public fund managers to allow market-oriented withdrawal.
guidelines for the application of audit rules for scientific and technological innovation corporate bonds issued by Shanghai Stock Exchange
On May 20, the Shanghai Stock Exchange officially issued and implemented the guidelines for the application of the review rules for the issuance and listing of corporate bonds of Shanghai Stock Exchange No. 4 – scientific and technological innovation corporate bonds, marking the official launch of scientific and technological innovation corporate bonds. The guidelines for scientific and technological innovation bonds make specific provisions in four aspects: first, clarify the scope of bond issuers; Second, clarify the way of support; Third, clarify the norms of information disclosure and verification; Fourth, clarify supporting measures.
institutional outlook
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : medium term slow rise is still in the early stage
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the impact of the local epidemic situation in China has improved, the resumption of work and production and the resumption of business and markets have been gradual, the implementation of the steady growth policy has taken into account the density and intensity, and the resultant force of the policy has begun to appear. After reaching the low point in April, China’s economy is expected to return to the good trend month by month in May, and the profit growth of A-Shares will also pick up after bottoming out in the second quarter. At present, the medium-term slow rise of A-Shares is still in the early stage, and the four main lines of structure continue to rotate. The annual dimension focuses on the two main lines of modern infrastructure and real estate, the quarterly dimension focuses on the main line of resumption of work and production, and the monthly dimension focuses on the main line of consumption repair.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : the market has a midline value
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that the market has some characteristics at the bottom in terms of policy, valuation and capital sentiment, and the market has a midline value; There are still some challenges in the market environment, and more room for rise in the future requires more positive fundamental catalysts, especially the month on month improvement of profit expectation may be more important. In the context of China’s “steady growth” overweight and overseas growth decline, we will focus on the post epidemic repair of China’s fundamentals in the future, including real estate and consumer demand.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : strategically bullish small cap growth stocks
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) believes that the market will shift from a combination of mud and sand to a rich range of structural opportunities. It is suggested to focus first on value stocks, followed by small cap growth stocks that benefit from the improvement of the credit environment of private enterprises, are limited by the tightening of the Federal Reserve, have a non crowded trading structure and oversold in the early stage. The decisive factor of small cap growth stocks is China’s credit environment. The credit environment of private enterprises will be improved. Small cap growth stocks have been cleared after the small liquidity impact in late April, and the valuation has bottomed out.
China Europe Fund: the second quarter may not be light in the off-season
China Europe Fund believes that as enterprises gradually resume normal operation and the overseas situation becomes clearer, it is conducive to the fundamentals of enterprises to get out of the low point. As enterprises walk out of the low fundamentals, they have the opportunity to make up for the slightly failed performance in the first quarter in the second quarter. The peak season in the first quarter is not prosperous, and the off-season in the second quarter may not be weak, so the income that should have been obtained in the first quarter will move back, and there are still opportunities in the future.
Huaxia Fund: the bottom range is basically clear
Huaxia Fund believes that although the overseas market is still volatile in May, with the continuous boost of favorable policies and the enhancement of investors’ confidence in fundamentals, A-Shares are independent of the performance of the global market and show a good rebound trend. From the perspective of market sentiment, investors’ risk appetite has rebounded significantly, and the index has gradually stabilized. Judging from the current valuation level, the bottom range of this round of adjustment has been basically clear. Although the index will still be repeated in the rebound process, it will still be strongly supported in terms of fundamentals and liquidity in the medium term.
ICBC Credit Suisse: Coal profit expansion is still expected
ICBC Credit Suisse believes that on the basis of the substantial growth of performance in 2021, the coal sector continued high growth in the first quarter of 2022. In the second quarter, the coal entered the off-season, and the price fell. At the same time, the price base increased in 2021, the corresponding profit growth fell, and there was still growth from a month on month perspective. The performance uncertainty and undervalued value of gaochangxie coal enterprises are still attractive, and overseas energy prices remain high or even upward, and the ability of resource products to resist inflation is prominent.
